2019 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Regarding the Marianas system, EURO is even more robust. Has a TS approaching the Marianas.



GFS continues to be confused.

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/4VTxFot

[euro6208]

EURO still has it there but weaker on approach.

[euro6208]

[aspen]

I wouldn’t trust any of the models with that new potential system when it won’t form for at least another week. Could it become something significant? Yes, but there’s too much time and too many moving parts within that time. If the models still forecast a disturbance developing within five days of the date they predict it to develop, then I would start paying it some attention.

The latest Euro run has it developing as soon as 10/19, which is only five days away, so there’s a decent chance it could end up as something to watch.

[aspen]

I may have to take back what I said earlier. The 12z GFS run has this developing by 18z 10/18 (only four days out) and has it become a decently significant system in the following days. What’s intriguing is the disturbance’s low latitude (within 10*N), which puts it in a region of very warm SSTs (29-30 C) and keeps it out of the cold wake left behind by Hagibis, and could lead to significant development if shear and atmospheric moisture levels are conductive for it.

[euro6208]

EURO much more robust. Looks liken the culprit could originate from the CPAC.

[euro6208]

18Z GFS back to showing nothing.

[mrbagyo]

Imo, the area of cloudiness near 16N 137E needs tagging

[aspen]

Imo, the area of cloudiness near 16N 137E needs tagging

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/index54f34c75f0f3a05e.gif

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/wgmsshr.GIF2.gif

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/wgmsvor.gif

That looks like it might be on the verge of becoming a tropical depression. If convection can persist and stay organized, we may very well have a new system in the WPac tomorrow, albeit a weak one that probably won’t intensify much based on the latest global runs.

[euro6208]

That looks pretty much classifiable.

[euro6208]

96W Thread

Now an invest.

[Hayabusa]

I've been watching that area for days now but models keep it literally weak, a TD at best.

My most interest is the one near or still just east of the dateline, the model storm I've said days ago, but only Euro is persistent in developing it, GFS is on and off.

[euro6208]

Scattered showers will persist this morning but gradually taper off
toward midday as east to northeast winds push into the area. A fairly
dry pattern will set up for the latter half of the week with
generally easterly flow dominating. Models still show clouds and
moisture increasing around Saturday and into next week. Around the
middle of next week, models show a disturbance moving by the Marianas
which could bring increased showers and thunderstorms. Currently, it
seems this disturbance may come from the large cluster of convection
now southeast of Majuro.

[doomhaMwx]

Quite off topic. The Himawari-8 satellite sometimes captures the Moon passing behind the Earth, and it did so today (Oct 15).
The following images are from 3:00am UTC, 3:10am UTC, and 3:40am UTC.





The moon's relatively rapid motion probably caused it to be cut in half on that last image. You can also see the extratropical cyclone that is ex-Hagibis in there.
Here's another "version" of that image, from the RAMMB site:



Finally, here is a full-disk animation showing the moon's passage:

[aspen]

GFS is showing development of the Marianas system again, while the Euro is showing a weaker storm. Mid Friday to late Saturday seems like a good time frame for when the disturbance could develop.

[euro6208]

GFS is strongest so far on this.

[euro6208]

This doesn't include the 06Z run which is more robust.

Way out to the east, an area of disturbed weather is evident to the
southeast of Majuro around 3N 175E. It is very disorganized on
satellite imagery, but it is worth noting that it from this batch
of clouds and showers that the GFS tries to develop a tropical
cyclone later in the week that could theoretically pose a threat to
the Marianas next week. However, it`s an on-again off again threat:
the latest run (00Z) brings a tropical storm to the Marianas next
Tuesday, but the previous run (18Z) has nothing, while the previous
run to that (12Z last night) has the storm in the Marianas, and
yesterday`s 06Z run has little or nothing. Since the ECMWF shows
basically nothing in its latest run (00Z), we are not inclined to
take the on-again GFS seriously yet, but we will certainly monitor
that area closely.

[Hayabusa]

My most interest is the one near or still just east of the dateline, the model storm I've said days ago, but only Euro is persistent in developing it, GFS is on and off.

Invest 97W

[Highteeld]

Next storm possibly. Has support from the GFS.