2019 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Mid-range.

[euro6208]

It's back.

[dexterlabio]

https://images-ext-1.discordapp.net/external/RtRqv4vDPhD1HT58_dsP72Yec41fwValrphrhUdV3rw/https/pbs.twimg.com/media/ECYivnUXUAAUAEU.jpg%3Alarge?width=469&height=375

Looks like a hostile September/October is on its way.

Maybe not so hostile after all with Hagubis putting up a show right now.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1180944209974448128

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1181037138722246656

[euro6208]

Combo of KW and MJO doing it's thang.

[euro6208]

Quite a contrast between EURO and GFS on the next system.

[1900hurricane]

WPac ACE from March through September this season ranks 45th out of 50 for years 1970-2019.

https://imgur.com/icMkVtN

I took every single year that was within 10 units of this year's total over that time span and plotted them together to give us a climatological look where we're headed. Given the big jump Wutip gave early in the year, we'll probably finish around 200 units I imagine. All these years except 1999 (probably the worst analog of the group) had some pretty notable activity in October/November.

[euro6208]

I'm done with GFS. Has development in 144 hours.

[Hayabusa]

GFS nailed the genesis for Hagibis, even when development was already within 240 hours the rest of the models were quiet. So worth a watch for possible development.

It could drop it, but it also did the same with the model storm Hagibis before showing it back again. Or it could drop overall, a phantom.

Next name is Neoguri, another perfect name for a cat 5.

[euro6208]

In the West Pacific, models hint at the chance for a low to undergo tropical cyclogenesis in the wake of Hagibis between approximately 140-165E between 10-20N. Moderate confidence of a TC forming here exists during Week-1, although the development of another low tracking through this region and becoming a TC cannot be ruled out during Week-2.

[euro6208]

EURO starting to become more robust now.

[euro6208]

GFS still sticking to it's gun.

Showing development between 66 to 78 hours for several runs now.

[euro6208]

Formation between 10-15N, 160-165E.

A near-equatorial trough extends east-northeastward from southwest of
Chuuk at EQ149E thru two weak circulations, southwest of Pohnpei at
7N154E and northeast of Majuro at 12N174E to beyond the Date Line at
12N. At the upper levels, a trough reaches north- northeastward from
southeast of Chuuk at EQ153E thru two lows, northwest of Pohnpei at
14N158E and northwest of Wake Island at 22N163E.

Converging winds near and south of the near-equatorial trough will
continue to couple with divergent flow southeast of the upper-level
features to trigger sporadic convection near Chuuk thru Saturday
evening, Pohnpei thru Saturday and Kosrae until Friday afternoon. As
these surface features lift northward Friday night and Saturday,
surface ridging in their wake should usher in more stable conditions
to Kosrae by Friday evening, Pohnpei by Saturday evening and Chuuk by
Sunday. With Majuro being a bit farther south of the near-equatorial
trough, surface ridging should maintain fair conditions there until
late Friday afternoon. Afterward, the circulation to the northeast
will start to draw convergent southwest winds across the Marshall
Islands which should cause periodic showers and possible
thunderstorms near Majuro thru Sunday.

Early next week, both the GFS and ECMWF are forming another tropical
disturbance along the near-equatorial trough near the northwestern
Marshall Islands and developing it into a tropical storm. Under this
scenario, converging south to southwest winds might reform across
Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae before midweek. On the other hand, this
should strengthen the surface ridge near Majuro and bring back partly
cloudy skies near Monday.

[euro6208]

This will be interesting.

The 2019 Rugby World Cup will be held in Japan from September 20 to October.

With Tokyo facing it's strongest typhoon ever just this month, What will happen if a typhoon threatens during tournament time?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Rugby_World_Cup

One match canceled. I hate to think about next year. Rebuilding mode.

[Hayabusa]

GFS has recently backed off significantly in intensity that 95W may not even be named and Euro only showed one development run and then back to nothing again.

Neoguri at that track and latitude would be hard to reach to a strong typhoon/cat 5 anyway.

The next model storm, still at long range but development already within Euro's 240 hour timeframe, also in GFS, and if it continues to show development and sooner timeframe as the runs go by, could be possible for Neoguri.

[euro6208]

Even in near range, GFS still cannot make up it's mind.

[euro6208]

Looks like GFS and EURO are showing another possible TC. GFS has been on and off with this on intensity. EURO much more robust.

[doomhaMwx]

With Hagibis gone, a weak disturbance located to the south of Guam seems worth watching. A number of ECMWF ensemble members in the latest(00Z) model run have actually become more robust with development.

[euro6208]

Operational GFS and EURO are actually null on this. We'll see.