2019 WPAC Season

[aspen]

The GFS is going nuts with another powerful >200 hr system. I would ignore it and call it a phantom, if it weren’t for the fact that the precursor disturbance/depression could form by 168-180 hours out (next Monday/Tuesday) and the Euro also shows a bit of a disturbance around that time. It might be something to watch in a few days if the models still show it. However, after 93W’s lackluster performance so far, I’m hesitant to build up any “hype” for this one.

[dexterlabio]

To me it appears that Kalmaegi's erratic track somehow affected 93W's development outlook. When the models were still showing 93W becoming a formidable system, Kalmaegi was expected to be already out of the picture by then, but now Kalmaegi is still lingering a few hundred miles from 93W's current location and that somehow changed the atmospheric setup.

[1900hurricane]

Seeing the two in close proximity near the Philippines reminds me of a beefed up version of Pamela and Roger in 1982.

[Hayabusa]

Time to hype again

During the next two weeks, robust Rossby wave activity over the central Pacific may help generate new tropical cyclones both north and south of the equator. Dynamical models favor the potential for tropical cyclogenesis between Guam and the Philippines, close or east of the current location of TD 28-W. Enhanced convection just west of the Date Line may provide another source for tropical cyclone development as well, so both of these regions are covered in a broad moderate confidence forecast area.

[aspen]

Time to hype again

https://i.imgur.com/lkq8HFr.png

During the next two weeks, robust Rossby wave activity over the central Pacific may help generate new tropical cyclones both north and south of the equator. Dynamical models favor the potential for tropical cyclogenesis between Guam and the Philippines, close or east of the current location of TD 28-W. Enhanced convection just west of the Date Line may provide another source for tropical cyclone development as well, so both of these regions are covered in a broad moderate confidence forecast area.

Looks like that’s what the GFS is picking up on. It still seems to be overdoing the intensity of the future system (a ~935 mbar Super Typhoon in early December), but now there’s actual support for it to develop. Even the Euro, NAVGEM, and ICON are catching up, showing a disturbance around 10*N and 140-160*W by Sunday-Wednesday.

[1900hurricane]

Synoptically, guidance appears to be in good agreement establishing a near-equatorial trough by this weekend. With a stronger than average subtropical ridge juxtaposed over this trough and associated lower heights, an established disturbance will probably speed through the gradient region fairly quickly once again, much like Fung-Wong before it. That may pose an issue with organization and consolidation, especially with how low latitude it will start out, but I do think the chances of another tropical cyclone are fairly decent.

[aspen]

Almost all global models (GFS, CMC, NAVGEM, and ICON) show that near-equatorial trough developing a disturbance, depression, or named storm between Sunday and next Tuesday. There’s still plenty of time for this to change, and it could end up as a bust like Fung-Wong (since it will start out similar as pointed out by 1900hurricane), but so far the odds seem to be generally on its side.

[Hayabusa]

It's already there on the dateline, development starts, according to models, once it gets to 160E, Euro has it tracking faster while GFS is slower.

[aspen]

It's already there on the dateline, development starts, according to models, once it gets to 160E, Euro has it tracking faster while GFS is slower.

https://i.imgur.com/a5uwxGU.gif

https://i.imgur.com/bDVA3mL.gif

The Euro appears to be the outlier here. All other global models show development within the next 4-6 days, well before it ever reaches the Philippines. The GFS seems to be the slowest both in terms of the system’s speed and rate of development, but is by far the most aggressive in the long-term (no surprise there).

Here are the approximate development times and lat/long of the potential system in each of the latest global runs:

-18z GFS: 00-06z 11/26, around 11N/153E

-12z Euro: 12z 11/27, around 11N/131E

-12z CMC: 12-18z 11/24, around 8N/160E

-12z NAVGEM: 12-18z 11/24, around 11N/159E

-12z ICON: 18z-23z 11/24, around 10N/159E (there are signs of a depression as early as Saturday in this run)

[Hayabusa]

It's already there on the dateline, development starts, according to models, once it gets to 160E, Euro has it tracking faster while GFS is slower.

https://i.imgur.com/a5uwxGU.gif

https://i.imgur.com/bDVA3mL.gif

-18z GFS: 00-06z 11/26, around 11N/153E

I think you mean 12Z GFS, 18Z doesn't come out until approximately 1 hour from now.

[aspen]

The next available name in the WPac is Kammuri, which will likely be taken by newly designated Invest 94W within 5-7 days. After that, there’s Phanfone, and then Vongfong.

I really hope there will be enough time in the remainder of the season for a system to get the name Vongfong and be able to rapidly intensify. It would be cool to have two Super Typhoon Vongfongs this decade (and hopefully two that don’t bring serious impacts to land).

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/sayakasofiamori/status/1197425348608020480

[Highteeld]

UKmet is starting to join in on a notable storm forming. GFS and Euro definitely cried wolf with 28W/Fung-Wong.

[aspen]

UKmet is starting to join in on a notable storm forming. GFS and Euro definitely cried wolf with 28W/Fung-Wong.

Every global model (except for the ICON, which still supports developments) seems to want a strong system forming from 94W. The GFS, Euro, CMC, and NAVGEM all show a major hurricane equivalent system approaching the Philippines next week, with the latter supporting development as early as tomorrow afternoon.

[aspen]

Looks like the next big system is on the way. The GFS, CMC, and NAVGEM all forecast Invest 94W to develop into a depression this weekend into Monday and become a formidable typhoon early next week. SSTs/OHC are still high enough to support a Category 5 storm if other environmental requirements are met.

As for the other models, the Euro is an outlier and shows a slower-developing storm, while the ICON develops it around the same time as the GFS/CMC/NAVGEM but is very conservative with its intensity.

[Monsoonjr99]

GFS now wants a recurve.

[aspen]

94W’s development continues to get more complicated. The GFS, Euro, and NAVGEM all show another depression forming out of the same disturbance/region. While the GFS and NAVGEM have 94W become the dominant system and destroy the smaller one, the Euro keeps them apart enough so they both become powerful storms. On top of that, the NAVGEM has been trying to form yet another system behind 94W/94Wb at 90-120 hrs out.

The next available names are Kammuri, Phanfone, and Vongfong.

[Hayabusa]

The one behind TD 94W, again another dateliner, it's already an LPA by JMA, to which models kind of developing it.

WWJP27 RJTD 241800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 04N 178E WEST SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

With Kammuri here, November 2019 has now 6 named storms, the most since 1991 season.

Notable typhoon at that time was Yuri

[dexterlabio]

GFS ensembles hinting on 2019's last hurrah on the second half of December. Perhaps this is only a noise but with the Indian Ocean having another period of activity, it seems like WPAC will follow. This has been my observation for the past several weeks, it looks like the activity in the IO and WPAC is somehow connected.