2019 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Through the next 10 days, models show 2 or 3 circulations forming and moving westward along the trough axis situated between 10N and 15N. Currently models show no significant development with any of the circulations.

[euro6208]

Last 3 seasons on this date. 2019 looks to be on par with the Abysmal 2017 season.

2019 - 109.3

2018 - 217.8

2017 - 106.5

2016 - 139.295

[1900hurricane]

Anyone else having trouble getting best track data from SSD? Looks like it hasn't been updating since September 11th or so. Hopefully it'll start updating again soon so it'll save me from a lot of manual updating and editing.

[1900hurricane]

Season ACE is above 1999! As of now, we're guaranteed a not last place finish!

[euro6208]

Well. GFS hints on some activity first week of next month when the next MJO and preceding KW comes.

[1900hurricane]

Regarding season to date ACE, I decided to search how 2019 has done compared to the last 50 years, and we're actually not doing quite as bad as I thought. Out of all the years since 1970, 2019 is ranked 39th. That's certainly low, but just above some basement years. This year is in close company with 2017, but also above 2013, which had a flurry of activity beginning around now that year and ended up finishing only slightly below to near average, so there is at least some historical precedent for an increase of late season activity. October VPA anomaly forecasts look fairly favorable at this point, so we'll have to see if anything transpires.

However, as has been the case all year, very early season Wutip may have skewed season numbers since the WPac storm minimum is in February, and it can be argued that the actual start to the season should be at the beginning of March. Using that starting point, ACE drops all the way to 45 of 50.

[dexterlabio]

I'm sold to the the idea that 2019 is a dud season along with 2017, but at least not as bad as the snoozefests like 1999 and 2010. I think the inactivity in 2017 and this year was just emphasized because the Atlantic was putting up a good fight.


However, I'm still not convinced that we've seen the climax of 2019 in the WPAC. We could see a very quiet end of September and first half of October. But I'm guessing we might see some uptick by the last week of October, going into November and MAYBE even up to December. After all, the last quarter of the year in this basin is a critical period for super typhoons, with or without El Nino.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Interesting. GFS for several days now has been trying to develop a very intense typhoon originating near the dateline first to second week of October.

[euro6208]

Strongest run so far too and each run has it more southerly.

[Hayabusa]

If that intensity comes to fruition that would beat 2002's Cat 5 Hagibis, Hagibis really fits perfectly the name of an intense cat 5 typhoon.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1176143016953896964

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

06Z GFS has development in just 180 hours.

[euro6208]

Being the world's most active and productive basin in the world, i think there are some people out there that are thankful for this slowness. It's been a trainwreck every year and this year is no exception.

When was the last time we truly had a break with no landfalls?

Devastating season so far.

[Iune]

If that intensity comes to fruition that would beat 2002's Cat 5 Hagibis, Hagibis really fits perfectly the name of an intense cat 5 typhoon.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the next available name Mitag? Or is this the modeling for the storm after Mitag?

[Hayabusa]

If that intensity comes to fruition that would beat 2002's Cat 5 Hagibis, Hagibis really fits perfectly the name of an intense cat 5 typhoon.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the next available name Mitag? Or is this the modeling for the storm after Mitag?

Yep what I'm talking about is the model storm after Mitag, I should've been more clear as Mitag is currently not named yet (on 19W)

[dexterlabio]

Quite surprised that the models are showing a possibility of strong typhoons popping up in the coming days, despite of the negative effect of the MJO location right now. Still think that we have something big to watch out for by the end of October, going into November.

[euro6208]

Well that's interesting. GFS drops all sorts of development. Any development keeps getting pushed back.

[euro6208]

00Z and 06Z showing a possible outbreak?