2019 WPAC Season

[1900hurricane]

Might need to tag a South China Sea invest soon.

https://i.imgur.com/6mW8Uts.jpg

It is now Invest 96W.

[1900hurricane]

Pretty classic monsoon trough breakdown with Lekima and Krosa.

[dexterlabio]

We owe the GFS an apology for laughing when it showed this kind of scenario many days ago. though I really thought we'd never get to see this sighting this year in the WPAC.

[1900hurricane]

To be fair, we don't have three or four active typhoons <950 mb like some of those solutions had. Lekima and Krosa still have plenty of room to grow though.

[dexterlabio]

To be fair, we don't have three or four active typhoons <950 mb like some of those solutions had. Lekima and Krosa still have plenty of room to grow though.

Yeah well that didn't happen, although if you take away the sub 950 part, GFS correctly sniffed out 4 tropical cyclones forming in the basin within a span of days: Francisco, Lekima, Krosa, and the TD west of Luzon. I believe the Euro only predicted Francisco and Lekima early on, and as minimal tropical storms at best.

Francisco only managed to attain Cat1 intensity and that Luzon TD is likely to get absorbed by Lekima (contrary to GFS's super typhoon landfall in Hong Kong solution last week)...we'll see if the below 950mb forecast for Lekima and Krosa by the GFS is going to bust as well.

[euro6208]

Francisco was the first typhoon since February 27 and broke the all time record this season of no typhoon formation between February 28 to August 4. No other season on record since 1950 was this quiet.

What a way to break it...followed by 2 more typhoons...in Lekima and Krosa...

[doomhaMwx]

Early morning satellite image of two large typhoons, typhoons Lekima(left) and Krosa(right) side-by-side over the NW Pacific ocean.


http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/cgi-bin/iiif/ ... 22B7B121BB
Himawari-8 RGB satellite image
08-07-2019 10:10pm UTC

[ManilaTC]

To be fair, we don't have three or four active typhoons <950 mb like some of those solutions had. Lekima and Krosa still have plenty of room to grow though.

Yeah well that didn't happen, although if you take away the sub 950 part, GFS correctly sniffed out 4 tropical cyclones forming in the basin within a span of days: Francisco, Lekima, Krosa, and the TD west of Luzon. I believe the Euro only predicted Francisco and Lekima early on, and as minimal tropical storms at best.

Francisco only managed to attain Cat1 intensity and that Luzon TD is likely to get absorbed by Lekima (contrary to GFS's super typhoon landfall in Hong Kong solution last week)...we'll see if the below 950mb forecast for Lekima and Krosa by the GFS is going to bust as well.

It did'nt bust...
Lookat'em now:

10W LEKIMA 190808 0600 23.6N 125.5E WPAC 130 912
11W KROSA 190808 0600 22.1N 140.6E WPAC 100 946

[euro6208]

August 7th update out.

TSR maintains its outlook issued in early July and anticipates the 2019 Northwest Pacific
typhoon season will see activity slightly below the 1965-2018 climate norm.


https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

July - 25/15/8 260
August - 26/16/8 270

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Looks like GFS is hinting on some activity long range.

[JoshwaDone]

Looks like GFS is hinting on some activity long range.

same with ECMWF

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/Pierre_Markuse/status/1159604192396361729

[Hammy]

That's such an insane sight it almost looks like a painting

[euro6208]

00Z EURO even more robust on the dateline system. Strongest yet the past several runs. Maybe another near Japan?

[Hayabusa]

Could be a Euro phantom storm, but would love this one to actually form. Keep monitoring

[euro6208]

GFS is all over the place. From southeast asia to the dateline the last several days...

[euro6208]

Could be a Euro phantom storm, but would love this one to actually form. Keep monitoring

GFS has it too but differs on each runs...

[Highteeld]

Decent agreement among EPS members of the dateline storm forming with a few members that are cat 2/cat3 status by hour 240

[euro6208]

Year after year, those heat content and 26.C Isotherm remains strong. Incredible.