2019 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#121 Postby euro6208 » Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:49 pm

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#122 Postby euro6208 » Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:33 am

The basin truly taking it's time after historic Cat 5 Wutip in February or another backloaded season?
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#123 Postby euro6208 » Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:34 am

GFS back to some action as another MJO is possible mid month next week unless some surprises occur.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#124 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Apr 14, 2019 8:15 am

The WPAC has technically shutdown since Wutip, what a bore :roll:
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#125 Postby al78 » Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:52 am

Hayabusa wrote:The WPAC has technically shutdown since Wutip, what a bore :roll:


It is only the middle of April, and May is historically the quietest time of year for tropical cyclones globally, so it is not unusual to have a prolonged quiet period in any basin at this time of year. Peak season in the NWP is August-September, so no reason to write the basin off yet.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#126 Postby euro6208 » Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:59 am

al78 wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:The WPAC has technically shutdown since Wutip, what a bore :roll:


It is only the middle of April, and May is historically the quietest time of year for tropical cyclones globally, so it is not unusual to have a prolonged quiet period in any basin at this time of year. Peak season in the NWP is August-September, so no reason to write the basin off yet.


True. But the slowest months climatologically is February and March for the WPAC so it's unusual that April hasn't produce anything as of late. Maybe it was the hype that was Wutip and the possible el nino.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#127 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:40 am

Yeah it's the El Nino hype that got my hopes up for back to back named storms just after Wutip. :sun:
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#128 Postby euro6208 » Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:31 am

WPAC above average in all areas. With an ACE of 35.2, it can remain dormant until the middle of June and still be on par with climatology.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#129 Postby euro6208 » Mon Apr 22, 2019 5:56 am

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On average there is 0.6 named storms in the month of April.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#130 Postby euro6208 » Mon Apr 22, 2019 6:04 am

Something to watch. EURO has been trending stronger with this. GFS zilch...

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#131 Postby euro6208 » Mon Apr 22, 2019 6:10 am

CMC and NAVGEM also on board.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#132 Postby euro6208 » Tue Apr 23, 2019 6:24 am

It's a large system alright. Models are still very limited intensification to no intensification.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#133 Postby euro6208 » Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:07 am

No wonder why the models are starting to pick up on some activity. KW looking pretty potent. MJO right behind.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#134 Postby euro6208 » Wed Apr 24, 2019 4:38 pm

GFS long range has a significant TC developing southeast of the Marianas for several runs now.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#135 Postby euro6208 » Sun Apr 28, 2019 6:53 pm

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#136 Postby euro6208 » Sun Apr 28, 2019 7:10 pm

GFS is all over the place. Hinting on some potential TC near Palau.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#137 Postby euro6208 » Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:18 am

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#138 Postby euro6208 » Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:26 am

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#139 Postby euro6208 » Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:41 am

Strong convectively coupled Kelvin wave to pass as noted by the black contour lines.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#140 Postby euro6208 » Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:51 am

I haven't seen the other models but:

GFS pretty robust in developing the system southwest of Guam.

00Z

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06Z

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Last edited by euro6208 on Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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