2019 WPAC Season

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Imran_doomhaMwx
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#161 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Fri May 10, 2019 2:05 am

TSR has released their forecast for the 2019 Typhoon Season.
Above average TC activity (based on 1965-2018 climatology), mainly due to prevailing El Nino conditions. Uncertainties remain in the ENSO forecast for August-September 2019, however, and TSR's forecast skill for outlooks issued at this time of the year is low.
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#162 Postby Hayabusa » Fri May 10, 2019 3:19 am

Well their forecast from last year May called for above average 2018 and 2018 in actual was above average, and now 2019 also forecasting above average, before June last year WPAC had already 3 named storms, this 2019 only 2 named storms.
92W is really :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#163 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 10, 2019 7:30 am

Hayabusa wrote:Well their forecast from last year May called for above average 2018 and 2018 in actual was above average, and now 2019 also forecasting above average, before June last year WPAC had already 3 named storms, this 2019 only 2 named storms.
92W is really :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:


One difference though. At this time last year, the WPAC was only at 11.9 compared to this year's 35.2.

Still a long season and the WPAC can stay quiet until the middle of June and still be on par climatologically. That TSR forecast though. :eek:

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#164 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri May 10, 2019 10:18 am

The TSR forecast is almost a carbon copy of last year's activity, which was (using JTWC metrics) 348.8025 ACE, 9 intense typhoons, 16 typhoons, and 30 tropical storms.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#165 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 15, 2019 9:39 pm

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#166 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 15, 2019 10:16 pm

Getting to that time of year... :eek:

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#167 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 15, 2019 10:23 pm

GFS again sniffing some tropical troubles at a rather high latitude.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#168 Postby Hayabusa » Thu May 16, 2019 11:51 am

Scorching hot and loaded ohc :sun:

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#169 Postby euro6208 » Thu May 16, 2019 8:01 pm

Looks like the models specifically GFS are starting to show the Mei-yu front becoming active which can produce several tropical cyclones albeit mostly weak ones and is common for this time of year. Okinawa, Japan, Taiwan etc. should see some wild weather.

This regime can hinder significant tropical cyclone formations in the deep tropics but usually it breaks down in the last week of May to first week of June. So we'll see.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#170 Postby euro6208 » Sat May 18, 2019 6:10 am

A whole lot of Mei-yu systems. We be lucky to see TC development out of this just like last year.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#171 Postby euro6208 » Sat May 18, 2019 6:25 am

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#172 Postby NotSparta » Sat May 18, 2019 7:54 am



They say 1998, 1992, and 2016 were strong El Niño yrs. They came off strong El Niños, but 1992 was cool neutral, 1998 was strong La Niña, and 2016 was a weak La Niña.

Makes sense, given a lack of WWBs to spin up storms means less +ENSO conditions
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#173 Postby Hayabusa » Sat May 18, 2019 8:39 am

1992's Typhoon Gay - 160 knots
1998's Typhoon Zeb - 155 knots
2016's Typhoon Meranti - 170 knots
2018's Typhoon Yutu tied with Typhoon Mangkhut - 155 knots

All peak intensities is by JTWC.

Would 2019 produce a >=170 knots WPAC storm? Hmm.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#174 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 22, 2019 6:28 am

Models continue to keep the basin incredibly quiet. No doubt, the dry phrase of the MJO is partly to blame.
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