2019 WPAC Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#181 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 31, 2019 7:42 am

1 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#182 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 31, 2019 7:45 am

0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#183 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 31, 2019 7:48 am

0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#184 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 31, 2019 8:18 am

0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#185 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 31, 2019 10:48 pm

Image

Still above average in ACE although that will start to decline by mid month if the quiet spell doesn't end soon. On average, about two tropical storms form in the Western Pacific basin each June. A bit more active than the average of just 1 TS for May. We'll see what happens when the next KW and MJO starts rolling in soon.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2321
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#186 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Jun 03, 2019 4:01 am

Convection is starting to flare up in the lower latitudes of WPAC.
2nd week of June is goin to be exciting with the projected arrival of the wet phase MJO.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#187 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:49 am

Storm2k's very own Robert gives his forecast for the season.

Image
Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1067
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#188 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:00 am

Quite an opposite (saying below average) forecast compared with TSR's.
TSR predicts the 2019 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will see activity above the
1965-2018 norm. However, the uncertainties associated with this outlook are
large and the forecast skill at this extended range is historically low.

Image
Was 2018 an El Nino year? Most WPAC storms in 2018 were recurvers.
0 likes   
寝取られとヤンデレ最高!

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1577
Age: 24
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#189 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:52 pm

Quite crazy how dead both the WPAC and EPAC are so far considering there is still an El Nino around. It's June and usually both basins will have a powerful storm by now but not only are there any storms, but barely any disturbances to monitor.

I guess the MJO really is a big trigger for activity.
3 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#190 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:56 am

0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#191 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:50 am

The GFS says that the WPAC wakes up soon...in Mei-yu alley. Some systems deepening to as low as 980's. Just like last year. Some could be classificable. :lol:
1 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#192 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:34 am

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1136589047537815554




Looks like the WPAC could wake up anytime.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#193 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:45 am

Image
Image
Image

Since March and counting. No TC's have developed. The only significant TC's to become a TS, TY, STY, and the 1st Cat 5 on record in the month of February and the whole NHEM looks to be becoming insignificant...Hopefully not another backloaded season...

Image
1 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#194 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:07 am

0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#195 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jun 07, 2019 7:25 am

Can the combo of KW and MJO trigger the first TC since March?

Image
Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#196 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jun 08, 2019 6:28 am

If that were in lower latitudes, it might be possible. Maybe one of those short lived TC's in the Mei-yu?

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#197 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jun 08, 2019 6:32 am

GFS the same. Deepens it to 985 mb. Similiar track and timeframe.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#198 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jun 08, 2019 7:51 pm

Sepat?

12z

Image

18z

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#199 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jun 10, 2019 7:25 am

GFS still has it. Looking like EURO is picking it up now.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17092
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#200 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jun 10, 2019 7:27 am

galaxy401 wrote:Quite crazy how dead both the WPAC and EPAC are so far considering there is still an El Nino around. It's June and usually both basins will have a powerful storm by now but not only are there any storms, but barely any disturbances to monitor.

I guess the MJO really is a big trigger for activity.


There was the record breaking Cat 5 Wutip back in February.

Hayabusa wrote:Was 2018 an El Nino year? Most WPAC storms in 2018 were recurvers.


Weak el nino.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot] and 16 guests