2019 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#201 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jun 10, 2019 8:19 pm

Getting quite bullish on future Sepat.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#202 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 11, 2019 6:50 pm

GFS is on and off with the system. EURO continues to be null...
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#203 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:04 pm

euro6208 wrote:GFS is on and off with the system. EURO continues to be null...

Very odd. Last time this happened was in 2016.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#204 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:16 am

00Z Strongest run yet...

Image


Latest 06Z..........Back to NOTHING.... :lol:
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#205 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:08 am

Mei-yu front continues to be very vigorous. Bringing lots of rains to Taiwan, Okinawa, China, Parts of Japan, and possibly Northern Luzon if the forecast of it dipping south holds.

WestPac High really keeping the tropics suppressed combined with the high shear from the Mei-yu...Damn.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#206 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:30 pm

Hello upgraded (FV3) GFS on tropicaltidbits on WPAC region, now the 6 hour interval forecast time is extended (formerly till 240 hr) to 384 hours or all its forecast times or all high resolution. I remember when GFS high resolution forecast time was just until below 200 hrs (and beyond that low resolution). Was it till 180 or 192 hr? :lol:

Before, I used weathernerds for FV3-GFS forecast on WPAC, except that there's no WPAC region option in weathernerds but it allows you to create a custom region forecast and aesthetically tropicaltidbits' MSLP graphic is better than weathernerds', how I waited for this day.

To celebrate here's a tropicaltidbits forecast GIF of the upgraded GFS on WPAC in all forecast times at 12Z run, look at that upgraded resolution, and GFS wants to develop a TC near 200 hours? Hmm.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#207 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:50 pm

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

18Z seems to have dropped that monster typhoon and now develops the one behind it even stronger.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#208 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:54 pm

Image

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MJO and KW is here and Incredible amounts of Rising Air.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#209 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:48 am

4th run in a row that GFS develops this system.

Development from 192 to 174 hours between the 00Z and 06Z run. Timeframe closing in.

Weaker on approach to the Guam area. 00Z had a 961 mb vs 989 mb at 06z.

One thing they agree though is that it will intensify rapidly once it clears the Marianas.

00Z had 932mb...06Z at 938mb...
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#210 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:02 pm

Euro 12Z finally shows something that's at least noticeable.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#211 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:42 pm

Hayabusa wrote:Euro 12Z finally shows something that's at least noticeable.

Yup finally something.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#212 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:07 pm

18z GFS continues to bring the time frame in. Coincides with a WWB that it has near 150E/160E in about 5 days.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#213 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:52 pm

Coming in stronger as well...959 mb barely north of Guam...in the Rota Channel...
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#214 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:22 pm

Lowest pressure so far...

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#215 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:03 am

These GFS runs have been very confusing. 00Z had a much weaker cyclone recurving east of the Marianas.

Image

928 mb lowest pressure yet so far.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#216 Postby jconsor » Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:08 am

The 6z and 18z GFS and GEFS are called by many meteorologists and weather enthusiasts the "happy hour runs", and not without reason. They tend to go nuts on intensity of existing and potential TCs. Although the new GFS appears to have less false TC developments and less overintensification of TCs, it seems the 6 and 18z runs are still susceptible to these biases. Take them with a glass of margarita :D
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#217 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:12 am

Lets see if the 12z Euro shows something...
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#218 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:18 pm

At this point we just have to wait and see. The GFS's solution is credible IMO. Even though RMM shows the Euro forecast killing the MJO in the MC, there's plenty of -VP200 anomalies across the entire WPAC basin.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#219 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:50 pm

Well the Euro now shows something up to 240hrs, and the non-happy hour GFS runs are still consistent with the idea of a significant TC traversing the WPAC next week.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#220 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:21 pm

The one new wrinkle that does bear watching is the possible return of
a positive MJO. The GFS and the NavGEM double down on this and bring
a tropical cyclone by in about a week and a half. That`s the quick
way to end a drought, however this is the reason forecasts are not
yet automated. That particular scenario is not the most likely, and
the ECMWF-HiRes takes it farther south, along 5N. This is much more
likely at this time of year, so when the two models diverged switched
away from the GFS. However, this does bear continued monitoring.

Models are forming a near-equatorial trough with multiple
circulations across the region around midweek next week. Among all
the models, the GFS is being most aggressive by spinning up a
tropical storm near Pohnpei and Kosrae after midweek next week. Since
there will be a positive MJO entering the Northwest Pacific next week,
this will probably cause an increase in activity and need to monitor
for possible TC development.
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