2019 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#221 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jun 14, 2019 8:53 pm

Well the non happy hour run 12z had this peaking at 925 mb.

The happy hour run 18z has way less of intensification. A struggling TC..981 mb... :lol:

Ai yai yai...
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#222 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:07 pm

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#223 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:42 pm

euro6208 wrote:Well the non happy hour run 12z had this peaking at 925 mb.

The happy hour run 18z has way less of intensification. A struggling TC..981 mb... :lol:

Ai yai yai...


Im guessing the non happy hour GFS runs have switched as the 00z GFS run is stronger
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#224 Postby Tailspin » Sat Jun 15, 2019 2:30 am

GFS throws one up this time mid-june most seasons. Statistics input ie mjo/cckw ?
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#225 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:17 pm

Looks like GFS is back to square one :roll:
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#226 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jun 15, 2019 8:25 pm

Looks like GFS completely dropped it the past couple of runs.

EURO with the win again.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#227 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:22 am

Kingarabian wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Well the non happy hour run 12z had this peaking at 925 mb.

The happy hour run 18z has way less of intensification. A struggling TC..981 mb... :lol:

Ai yai yai...


Im guessing the non happy hour GFS runs have switched as the 00z GFS run is stronger

"Happy Hour" GFS runs, at least with the old version, coincided with peak heating (which was actually a verifiable difference with 06Z/18Z runs), meaning the 18Z run for the CONUS. WPac "happy hour" runs would actually be with the 06Z run. Whether this bias remains with the new version remains to be seen however.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#228 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:40 am

I did a little research on those two consecutive years with weak to moderate El Nino. The only ones in not-so-distant history were '68-'69, '76-'77, and '86-'87. 1969 and 1977 were among the least active years in terms of tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, while 1987 was average, although that year had less tropical cyclone formations compared to '86 (but interestingly, '87 had 6 super typhoons while '86 had 3). I have no idea about the things in play in the atmosphere during El Nino that affects tropical cyclone activity in the WPAC, but it's interesting to note that there might be some negative effects in TC development in WPAC when a weak El Nino extends into the second year. Just to emphasize, I'm talking about consecutive years with weak to mild El Nino, and the 2014-2015 event is obviously not included.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#229 Postby Tailspin » Sun Jun 16, 2019 6:41 am

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#230 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:00 am

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Interesting SCS system. Tropical or Subtropical?
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#231 Postby Tailspin » Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:59 am

Appears on phase to be warm core tropical to begin with.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 6/178.html
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#232 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jun 16, 2019 4:47 pm

94W THREAD

System east of the Philippines.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#233 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:59 am

Tailspin wrote:Appears on phase to be warm core tropical to begin with.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 6/178.html


GFS brings it to land sooner. 984 mb straight into Hong Kong.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#234 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:00 am

GFS looks to have another tropical mischief in the SCS long range.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#235 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:33 am

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#236 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 2:20 am

euro6208 wrote:
Tailspin wrote:Appears on phase to be warm core tropical to begin with.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 6/178.html


GFS brings it to land sooner. 984 mb straight into Hong Kong.




Well that will be something if it happens...

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#237 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:12 am

June is a down month in the WPac, averaging less activity than even May largely due to the Mei-yu. The first ten days of July sees a big uptick climatologically, so I might not get too excited until then. The big early July system has been almost clockwork in recent years.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#238 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:17 am

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As the convective envelope of the MJO moves toward the central and eastern Pacific (Phase 6/7) during the next two weeks, this should support tropical cyclone development for the western Pacific basin. For Week-1, there is high confidence in possible TC formation over the area east of the Philippines, where models are indicating a closed low tracking northwestward later in the period. Over the Bay of Bengal, there is moderate confidence in another TC formation. The GEFS is showing enhanced rainfall over the region with no closed low, while other models are indicating TC formation. Continuing into Week-2, the set up over the western Pacific is expected remain conducive to TC formation.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#239 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:26 am

Those ocean temps are incredibly warm. Once the beast wakes up, i feel all hell will break loose.

Image
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#240 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:30 am

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The SCS system is still there and quite a midget. Too small to be initialized.

It has another TC in the P.I sea.
Last edited by euro6208 on Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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