2019 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#41 Postby euro6208 » Thu Feb 07, 2019 7:40 pm

A bit stronger on the 12Z run.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#42 Postby euro6208 » Fri Feb 08, 2019 6:58 pm

It's still there but weaker.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#43 Postby euro6208 » Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:27 am

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#44 Postby euro6208 » Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:30 am

EURO quite robust on this. Latest run weaker.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#45 Postby euro6208 » Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:31 am

GFS has been quite aggressive with this sometime now.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#46 Postby euro6208 » Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:33 am

ASCAT winds indicate a possible circulation near 5.5N/167.5E. While
the persistent troughing across the area shows better at 700MB, and
this mid-level trough is the focus for patchy showers and isolated
thunderstorms developing over central and southern RMI, Kosrae State
and southern Pohnpei State. Fresh to strong trade winds and very dry
weather continue across Chuuk State. Models still indicate unstable
weather over the southeast parts of eastern Micronesia in the coming
days, especially affecting southern Marshall Islands, and forecasts
for Pohnpei, Kosrae and Majuro may be subject to future changes.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#47 Postby euro6208 » Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:49 pm

Image

The influence of the active phase of the MJO and an ERW near the Date Line during the next 1-2 weeks leads to high and moderate risks of TC development over the western and central South Pacific in Week-1, respectively, and the western North Pacific (moderate confidence) in Week-2. ERWs sometimes lead to the formation of twin cyclones that straddle the equator.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#48 Postby euro6208 » Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:54 pm

EURO much stronger in the latest 12Z run.
Last edited by euro6208 on Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#49 Postby euro6208 » Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:45 pm

18Z GFS bottoms this to 920 mb. :double:

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#50 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:09 pm

euro6208 wrote:18Z GFS bottoms this to 920 mb. :double:

https://i.imgur.com/ujAttev.png


Yup lots of rising motion in the WPAC on the GFS.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#51 Postby euro6208 » Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:48 am

UKMET very robust and EURO/GFS agrees on a more south and west track across Micronesia.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#52 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:11 pm

I won't hold my breath yet considering how the models are performing since November 2018 and it is February :lol:
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#53 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:53 pm

Here is the 12Z Euro ensemble anyway
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#54 Postby euro6208 » Wed Feb 13, 2019 4:34 pm

EURO significantly stronger. Guam Threat?

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#55 Postby euro6208 » Wed Feb 13, 2019 4:37 pm

GFS seems to almost agree with EURO.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#56 Postby euro6208 » Wed Feb 13, 2019 6:40 pm

Moderate to fresh trade winds with only a few showers persist across much of the region. A near-equatorial trough remains well to the
south with deep convection pushed south of the equator. A disturbance
remains SE of Majuro. A low-level circulation was not evident in
available overnight scatterometer imagery, but mid-level model winds
indicated a broad circulation in the general area. Model guidance
generally agrees on a gradual increase in showers across the region
as the disturbance eventually moves westward. Models may be a little
too fast in moving the system, so the onset of rain may eventually
need to be slowed down. For now, showers are expected to increase
Friday at Majuro and over the weekend at Kosrae. Pohnpei should
expect increasing clouds late in the weekend, but the bulk of showers
could stay just south.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#57 Postby euro6208 » Thu Feb 14, 2019 1:58 am

How about 901 mb?

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#58 Postby euro6208 » Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:52 am

UKMET on board.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 3.2N 163.7E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 19.02.2019 3.2N 163.7E WEAK

00UTC 20.02.2019 4.4N 165.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#59 Postby euro6208 » Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:32 am

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#60 Postby euro6208 » Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:35 am

NWS not very optimistic about this...

Models show little change over the next several days
with trades remaining between 15 and 20 knots out to sea, and less
diurnally over land. No deep moisture pockets are evident. Timing
of the next shear line is predicted to be somewhere between Monday
(ECMWF) and Tuesday (GFS) is not with high confidence of bringing
much weather. Most likely scenario is to enhance the winds and
seas a bit and to bring back small craft advisories and possibly
high surf on the north and maybe east facing shores. Just of note,
models have tried to invigorate a weak circulation in the
Marshalls and move it west for the past week and have failed so
far. Development does not seem likely with the strong upper level
shear and with tropical action dominating well to the south in
the southern hemisphere. Perhaps later this spring these kinds of
circulations will have to be taken a bit more seriously...but we
will watch them, just the same.
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