2019 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#441 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:31 am

Interesting that GFS develops another one behind it?

Image
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#442 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:56 am

Image

Just riding along.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#443 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 21, 2019 8:21 pm

99W THREAD

Now an invest.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#444 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 22, 2019 4:42 am

Looks like the WPAC will continue to be favorable until September before an unfavorable October.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1163800852529864705


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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#445 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 22, 2019 4:43 am

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1163929080904835072




WPAC shutdown by October? UKMET agrees with EURO.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#446 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:54 pm

That UKMET is actually a pretty good look for activity originating from the eastern basin. Check out this plot below, most of the upward motion was centered east of the IDL in this year I cherry picked.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#447 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 24, 2019 4:47 am

Some memorable and unforgettable moments in history.

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1162405681397424128


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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#448 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 24, 2019 5:06 am

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#449 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 24, 2019 6:52 am

Image

GFS had a strong TC out of this but weaker.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#450 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 24, 2019 6:58 am

Image

Long range but looks to be a formidable typhoon east of the Marianas.

MJO and Kelvin Wave should be vigorous at this time.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#451 Postby DioBrando » Sat Aug 24, 2019 8:44 am

euro6208 wrote:https://i.imgur.com/JuBpLmD.png

Long range but looks to be a formidable typhoon east of the Marianas.

MJO and Kelvin Wave should be vigorous at this time.

The Kelvin wave is coming into the atlantic and sinking air into the wpac. It wont be more than a ts.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#452 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Aug 24, 2019 9:29 pm

DioBrando wrote:
euro6208 wrote:https://i.imgur.com/JuBpLmD.png

Long range but looks to be a formidable typhoon east of the Marianas.

MJO and Kelvin Wave should be vigorous at this time.

The Kelvin wave is coming into the atlantic and sinking air into the wpac. It wont be more than a ts.


It doesn't always work that way. Remember the CCKW arrived in the Atlantic 2 weeks ago when everyone else was saying that the Atlantic seemed dead. Now that the Kelvin Wave is departing to IO, the Atlantic just showed signs of life.

And I also dont think that when one basin shows activity, the other shuts down. Remember that we had one Cat5 cyclone each in the WPAC and ATL in October last year.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#453 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Aug 24, 2019 10:14 pm

You know the WPac is slow when I start wandering into NAtl threads.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#454 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Aug 25, 2019 1:06 am

^Yeah, hoping the Atlantic does give us something to do with our lives :lol:
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#455 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:35 am

DioBrando wrote:
euro6208 wrote:
Long range but looks to be a formidable typhoon east of the Marianas.

MJO and Kelvin Wave should be vigorous at this time.

The Kelvin wave is coming into the atlantic and sinking air into the wpac. It wont be more than a ts.





Image

Image

Not according to these maps. It's long range that i was talking about.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#456 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Aug 26, 2019 6:00 am

GFS and ECMWF are sniffing another one behind 99W. Looks like it has the potential to be much stronger than 99W and Bailu. Could hit Luzon as well about a week from now.

Image
Image
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#457 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:17 pm

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:GFS and ECMWF are sniffing another one behind 99W. Looks like it has the potential to be much stronger than 99W and Bailu. Could hit Luzon as well about a week from now.

https://i.imgur.com/zNvmla3.png
https://i.imgur.com/UCPw2gx.png


HWRF also sees this.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#458 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:36 am

UKMET, in addition to the Philippine Sea system, is picking up on TC activity in other parts of the basin as well after Podul.
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.08.2019



TROPICAL DEPRESSION PODUL ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 126.1E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 27.08.2019 14.6N 126.1E WEAK

12UTC 27.08.2019 16.2N 123.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 28.08.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 16.5N 117.7E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 28.08.2019 16.5N 117.7E MODERATE

12UTC 28.08.2019 17.1N 115.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.08.2019 17.5N 113.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.08.2019 18.0N 109.4E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.08.2019 17.9N 107.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.08.2019 18.3N 106.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.08.2019 18.5N 102.4E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.08.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.6N 172.5E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 01.09.2019 15.6N 172.5E WEAK

00UTC 02.09.2019 16.0N 170.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 14.9N 126.1E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 02.09.2019 15.9N 125.6E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 19.1N 111.2E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 02.09.2019 19.1N 111.2E MODERATE
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#459 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:38 am

Predictably perhaps, but it's the eastern basin thing that has me interested in that UKMET output. Looks like it can be traced back to an ITCZ disturbance well SW of Hawaii at about 170ºW now. GFS and CMC operational runs both at least somewhat maintain the disturbance after crossing the IDL. ECMWF not so much. We'll see if some equatorial westerlies can develop and pick the disturbance up somewhat.

Image
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#460 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:43 am

Last year, Jebi (25W) was classified on this date and began the Category 5 parade that ended with Yutu. Not seeing much of a parade this year so far.
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