2019 WPAC Season

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#541 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:56 pm

Through the next 10 days, models show 2 or 3 circulations forming and moving westward along the trough axis situated between 10N and 15N. Currently models show no significant development with any of the circulations.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#542 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:31 pm

Last 3 seasons on this date. 2019 looks to be on par with the Abysmal 2017 season.

2019 - 109.3

2018 - 217.8

2017 - 106.5

2016 - 139.295
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#543 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:01 am

Anyone else having trouble getting best track data from SSD? Looks like it hasn't been updating since September 11th or so. Hopefully it'll start updating again soon so it'll save me from a lot of manual updating and editing.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#544 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 21, 2019 10:57 am

Season ACE is above 1999! As of now, we're guaranteed a not last place finish!
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#545 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 21, 2019 9:24 pm

Well. GFS hints on some activity first week of next month when the next MJO and preceding KW comes.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#546 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Sep 21, 2019 9:48 pm

Regarding season to date ACE, I decided to search how 2019 has done compared to the last 50 years, and we're actually not doing quite as bad as I thought. Out of all the years since 1970, 2019 is ranked 39th. That's certainly low, but just above some basement years. This year is in close company with 2017, but also above 2013, which had a flurry of activity beginning around now that year and ended up finishing only slightly below to near average, so there is at least some historical precedent for an increase of late season activity. October VPA anomaly forecasts look fairly favorable at this point, so we'll have to see if anything transpires.



However, as has been the case all year, very early season Wutip may have skewed season numbers since the WPac storm minimum is in February, and it can be argued that the actual start to the season should be at the beginning of March. Using that starting point, ACE drops all the way to 45 of 50.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#547 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Sep 22, 2019 10:28 am

I'm sold to the the idea that 2019 is a dud season along with 2017, but at least not as bad as the snoozefests like 1999 and 2010. I think the inactivity in 2017 and this year was just emphasized because the Atlantic was putting up a good fight. :lol:


However, I'm still not convinced that we've seen the climax of 2019 in the WPAC. We could see a very quiet end of September and first half of October. But I'm guessing we might see some uptick by the last week of October, going into November and MAYBE even up to December. After all, the last quarter of the year in this basin is a critical period for super typhoons, with or without El Nino.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#548 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 26, 2019 2:07 am

Image

Image
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#549 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 27, 2019 4:13 am

Interesting. GFS for several days now has been trying to develop a very intense typhoon originating near the dateline first to second week of October.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#550 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 27, 2019 4:15 am

Strongest run so far too and each run has it more southerly.

Image

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#551 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Sep 27, 2019 4:23 am

If that intensity comes to fruition that would beat 2002's Cat 5 Hagibis, Hagibis really fits perfectly the name of an intense cat 5 typhoon.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#552 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 27, 2019 6:43 am

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#553 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 27, 2019 7:03 am

Image
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#554 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 27, 2019 7:15 am

06Z GFS has development in just 180 hours.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#555 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 27, 2019 8:11 am

Being the world's most active and productive basin in the world, i think there are some people out there that are thankful for this slowness. It's been a trainwreck every year and this year is no exception.

When was the last time we truly had a break with no landfalls?

Devastating season so far.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#556 Postby Iune » Fri Sep 27, 2019 11:14 am

Hayabusa wrote:If that intensity comes to fruition that would beat 2002's Cat 5 Hagibis, Hagibis really fits perfectly the name of an intense cat 5 typhoon.


Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the next available name Mitag? Or is this the modeling for the storm after Mitag?
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#557 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Sep 27, 2019 11:30 am

Iune wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:If that intensity comes to fruition that would beat 2002's Cat 5 Hagibis, Hagibis really fits perfectly the name of an intense cat 5 typhoon.


Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the next available name Mitag? Or is this the modeling for the storm after Mitag?


Yep what I'm talking about is the model storm after Mitag, I should've been more clear as Mitag is currently not named yet (on 19W) :oops:
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#558 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:25 pm

Quite surprised that the models are showing a possibility of strong typhoons popping up in the coming days, despite of the negative effect of the MJO location right now. Still think that we have something big to watch out for by the end of October, going into November.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#559 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 7:31 am

Well that's interesting. GFS drops all sorts of development. Any development keeps getting pushed back. :lol:
Last edited by euro6208 on Sat Sep 28, 2019 7:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#560 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 28, 2019 7:33 am

00Z and 06Z showing a possible outbreak?

Image
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