mrbagyo wrote:aspen wrote:GFS is still very consistent with the potential future low-rider and has it become a TD between Thursday and Friday.
Others have backed off on the development.
Anyway, this is the only area low enough to be that low rider - could this be the one.
I’m not sure if the precursor disturbance has formed yet. The GFS has the potential low-rider developing out of a disturbance around 5-8*N and 168-165*E by 12-18z Thursday.
Even if the low-rider develops later or slower than anticipated, it should definitely be watched closely. The waters down below 15*N can easily support a <900 mbar storm according to the latest maximum potential intensity charts. In fact, the region of 0-10*N and 180-150*E can support an intensity of <880 mbar, as can a blob of high OHC east of the Philippines extending to 140*E and between 7-15* N. There’s quite a lot of room for it to go nuts if given the chance.