2019 EPAC season

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cycloneye
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#41 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 10, 2019 3:30 pm

GFS keeps the trolling.

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#42 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:14 am

This makes more sense in timing than the GFS ghost it has been showing.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1116306154848755712


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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#43 Postby Chris90 » Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:45 am

2019 EPAC Season Episode I: The Phantom Storms

Would be cool to see something form in April as long as it stayed away from land and didn't hug the Mexican coast causing problems. May 14th-20th does make much more sense though and seems like a decent possibility. Just a little over a month until the official start!
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#44 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:08 pm

SST configuration and Euro season MSLP configuration for Hawaii looks pretty bad so far.

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#45 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:34 pm

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#46 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:53 pm

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#47 Postby Kazmit » Thu Apr 18, 2019 4:43 pm

:uarrow: Hawaii just barely dodged multiple bullets last year. Hopefully their luck continues this season.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#48 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:59 am

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#49 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 03, 2019 4:17 pm

SST's south of Hawaii are already at 26C, while waters north and north east of the islands are now at 25C. It's not even hurricane season yet, much less ASO, and these SST's can already support hurricane strength easily .

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#50 Postby chaser1 » Mon May 06, 2019 1:44 pm

I hope not, but I"m thinking this El Nino year could present Hawaii with another Iniki type risk. Probably not quite as strong and perhaps a greater threat to the Big Island rather then Kauai What were the SST's around the Islands when Iniki struck? I've gotta assume the early season temp anomalies were fairly high though.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#51 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 09, 2019 4:51 pm

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#52 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 11, 2019 3:49 pm

For the first time ECMWF has a storm south of CentralAmerica coinciding with GFS. Kingarabian what is your take on this? Alvin forms or not yet?

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#53 Postby StruThiO » Sat May 11, 2019 4:05 pm

I am no expert, but considering the MJO forecast to propagate through phases 8/1, I'd say Alvin is more likely than not
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#54 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 11, 2019 5:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:For the first time ECMWF has a storm south of CentralAmerica coinciding with GFS. Kingarabian what is your take on this? Alvin forms or not yet?

https://i.imgur.com/6p5mFKO.png


It would make sense for some sort of TC to spin up as the MJO will be in town, but local conditions over the EPAC may not yet be favorable. Past couple of seasons we've seen systems in May and June struggle with either mid level shear or dry air. Probably why the models have been off and on so far.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#55 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 13, 2019 6:48 pm

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#56 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 14, 2019 2:56 pm

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#57 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue May 14, 2019 5:32 pm

While the Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone season begins
tomorrow, no tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next
several days in the High Seas area.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#58 Postby Kingarabian » Tue May 14, 2019 6:19 pm

TC Genesis looking likely between 7-10 days.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#59 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 14, 2019 8:52 pm

Between May 22-28.

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#60 Postby Nancy Smar » Wed May 15, 2019 4:59 am

Today is the first day of the Eastern North Pacific Hurricane
Season. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next
several days in the Mexican Offshore Waters.
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