2019 EPAC season

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Nancy Smar
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#61 Postby Nancy Smar » Wed May 15, 2019 6:45 am

546
ABPZ20 KNHC 151135
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed May 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Today marks the first day of the eastern North Pacific hurricane
season, which will run until November 30. Long-term averages for
the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are
15, 8, and 4, respectively.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#62 Postby Astromanía » Wed May 15, 2019 1:34 pm

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:double:
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#63 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 15, 2019 6:57 pm

First yellow of season.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed May 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of disturbed weather has persisted several hundred
miles to the south and southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec since
early this morning. Some gradual development will be possible
through the weekend and into early next week while the system moves
little or drifts slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#64 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed May 15, 2019 7:21 pm

Image

Things just got serious.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#65 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 15, 2019 11:43 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:https://i.imgur.com/DC4fYqa.png

Things just got serious.


Yup GFS bringing timeframe in sooner
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#66 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 16, 2019 3:46 am

Invest 91E is up. Just like that, EPAC is back. Will be interesting to see how many invests areas are spawned with the passage of the MJO.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#67 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 16, 2019 11:40 am

A very active 2019 season according to Accuweather.

 https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/1129014907024887808


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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#68 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 18, 2019 11:51 pm

Maybe the first longtracker of the season?

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#69 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 19, 2019 2:08 am

cycloneye wrote:Maybe the first longtracker of the season?

[url]https://i.imgur.com/UVebHpe.gif[url]


Euro showing something similar as well. GFS and Euro are hinting that conditions are conducive enough. Seems out of character considering we're still in May. Also there is a good possibility we see two more invest areas circled with how the models spitting out LLCs and I think we have a shot to see two systems form.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#70 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 19, 2019 4:19 pm

ECMWF is very bullish with another area not related to 91E.

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#71 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 19, 2019 5:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:ECMWF is very bullish with another area not related to 91E.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/3dY6Bwc.gif[url]


Yeah GFS trying something similar as well:
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#72 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 20, 2019 2:59 pm

Past couple runs of the GFS shows the model remaining bullish on development in the EPAC as it spins up two TC's by this weekend. Euro is now less bullish on development, showing a weak system developing next week.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#73 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 20, 2019 5:59 pm

Is GFS dwindeling the timeframe at 18Z?

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#74 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 20, 2019 6:11 pm

cycloneye wrote:Is GFS dwindeling the timeframe at 18Z?

https://i.imgur.com/Wd5Uks9.png


Yes. I believe that high end Cat.4 it's showing will be 91E. It spins up another system further west which should be 92E.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#75 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 20, 2019 6:45 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Is GFS dwindeling the timeframe at 18Z?

https://i.imgur.com/Wd5Uks9.png


Yes. I believe that high end Cat.4 it's showing will be 91E. It spins up another system further west which should be 92E.


Yes is 91E. Posted the TWO that is up in %.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#76 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 23, 2019 12:49 pm

Between 15-22 named storms is the prediction of NOAA for this basin.

 https://twitter.com/NOAAComms/status/1131580646269300737


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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#77 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 26, 2019 6:30 pm

GFS trying to make sure we have Alvin before June:
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#78 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 27, 2019 10:06 am

GFS continues to spin up Alvin in the next 72 hours. Its the only model to do so and if the Euro doesn't show it in the next run or so then the GFS is starting this season on a bad note.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#79 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 28, 2019 1:16 pm

A new area.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is associated
with a trough of low pressure. Some gradual development of this
system is possible during the next several days as it moves slowly
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#80 Postby Kingarabian » Tue May 28, 2019 2:33 pm

:uarrow: GFS only model trying to spin it up but has backed off in the 12z run.
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