2019 EPAC season

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cycloneye
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#521 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 08, 2019 1:54 pm

An area of low pressure is expected to form in the next couple
of days well to the southwest of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week
while the low moves west-northwestward at around 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#522 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 08, 2019 2:37 pm

Euro/CMC/ICON continue to show a weak TD or possible Ema developing in the CPAC, as well as two potential long trackers in the EPAC:

Image
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#523 Postby Astromanía » Mon Sep 09, 2019 2:14 am

up to 30/80

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 8 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, are associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development over the next several days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle of
the week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#524 Postby Astromanía » Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:40 pm

:uarrow: Up to 40/80, this definitely is gonna be something to watch, models are somewhat aggressive

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 9 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico, continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Development of this system is anticipated, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days
while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#525 Postby Astromanía » Mon Sep 09, 2019 2:31 pm

Now up to 50/90, why there isn´t still an invest in the EPAC for this, it is organizing quickly and models are aggressive with this, I expect a stronger system in the upcoming model runs

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 9 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico, continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Development of this system is anticipated, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days
while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A second one, I wonder if this is the system that models are very bullish to develop after the one above

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form more than 1000 miles to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula
by late this week. Some additional slow development is possible as
the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven/Hagen
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#526 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 09, 2019 2:39 pm

Astromanía wrote:Now up to 50/90, why there isn´t still an invest in the EPAC for this, it is organizing quickly and models are aggressive with this, I expect a stronger system in the upcoming model runs

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 9 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico, continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Development of this system is anticipated, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days
while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A second one, I wonder if this is the system that models are very bullish to develop after the one above

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form more than 1000 miles to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula
by late this week. Some additional slow development is possible as
the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven/Hagen


In fact I made the thread for the invest knowing that by having 50%/80% they normally have it up but is locked until is oficially up.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#527 Postby Chris90 » Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:57 pm

Still haven't seen an invest designation yet, which seems strange considering the percentages and the convection that is out there. I'm starting to feel a tiny bit more bullish looking at the satellite. We'll see what happens. I'd love to see a fish challenge Barbara for the EPAC 2019 heavyweight title.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#528 Postby Astromanía » Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:29 am

Up to 60/90, still not an official invest that's strange, for me this really has potential
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 9 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form more than 1000 miles to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula
by late this week. Some additional slow development is possible as
the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#529 Postby Astromanía » Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:47 am

Kingarabian do you think GFS goes crazy? :eek:
Image
Makes this system a really long long traker, heading northwest, then west, then southwest, then west again and at the final recurves straight to Hawaii as a category 2 hurricane :eek: :eek:
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#530 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:07 am

Astromanía wrote:Kingarabian do you think GFS goes crazy? :eek:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019091000/gfs_z500_mslp_cpac_65.png
Makes this system a really long long traker, heading northwest, then west, then southwest, then west again and at the final recurves straight to Hawaii as a category 2 hurricane :eek: :eek:

Yeah no way that happens lol. Would be some crazy ace though.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#531 Postby Astromanía » Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:02 am

Its strange to see Euro bullish with a system in EPAC this season, but it appears that the second system will be a monster, still somewhat early to say that but models are in agreement with this situation. Well Euro was also bullish with the system that is developing now at one time but is somewhat bearish right now so we will see if things change with time, personally I hope both system will be powerful fish cyclone that will bring a lot of ACE
Image
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#532 Postby Astromanía » Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:00 pm

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 10 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is
located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. This
disturbed weather is associated with a broad area of low pressure
that has become better defined over the past 24 hours. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form on Thursday or Friday while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form more than 1000 miles to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
by late this week. Some additional slow development is possible as
the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Hamrick/Blake
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#533 Postby Astromanía » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:35 pm

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 10 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms are beginning to show
signs of organization in association with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional
development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next couple of days while the low
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form more than 1000 miles to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula
during the next couple of days. Some additional development is
possible while the system moves slowly westward through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#534 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:34 am

This area may be the next system to form in the CPAC:
Image

Models are slowly becoming more bullish on it. We'll see.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#535 Postby Astromanía » Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:54 pm

This is bizarre, is it even possible?, imagine how ACE would increase if this happens...
Image
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#536 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:01 pm

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure located about 500 miles southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is
possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while it moves slowly westward
or west-northwestward well offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another weak area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of Guatemala. Although the shower activity is
currently poorly organized, environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week. This system is expected to
move west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of Mexico
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#537 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:09 pm

12z ECMWF looks somewhat buyable. The first 2 are the 10/50's and shown by GFS, while only the ECMWF has the westermost system and the globals seems to be doing better recently.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#538 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:37 am

Invests 91E and 92E are up.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#539 Postby Astromanía » Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:01 pm

that's a lot of invests
Image
Image
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#540 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:09 pm

Tomorow's going to be madness.

You have the two above, plus 97L and 98L and a couple CPAC systems. All could be declared tomorrow.
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