2019 EPAC season

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#81 Postby Nancy Smar » Wed May 29, 2019 8:27 am

cycloneye wrote:A new area.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is associated
with a trough of low pressure. Some gradual development of this
system is possible during the next several days as it moves slowly
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

GENESIS004, EP, E, , , , , 74, 2019, DB, O, 2019052818, 9999999999, , 004, , , , GENESIS, , EP742019
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#82 Postby StruThiO » Mon Jun 03, 2019 12:23 pm

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#83 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:26 am

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#84 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:29 am

Waters off the Mexican coast is quite cool. This is usually where early and late season systems go. I think this area will be rather slow this season. But looking to a big western basin (west of 120W) ACE season. Not unlike last year.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#85 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:38 am

Umm,the NOAA 17-22 named systems forecast may fall short? Kingarabian What is causing this quiet start?
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#86 Postby NotSparta » Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:55 am

cycloneye wrote:Umm,the NOAA 17-22 named systems forecast may fall short? Kingarabian What is causing this quiet start?


As Anthony said, high MSLP, equatorward flux, and low instability.

Also, waters are cooler than avg near Mexico, and shear has been high
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#87 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:50 am

cycloneye wrote:Umm,the NOAA 17-22 named systems forecast may fall short? Kingarabian What is causing this quiet start?


Unless ENSO flips the way it did in 2017, I think the main culprit here is the suppressed phase of the MJO causing massive sinkage all over the EPAC and will be covering the Atlantic soon. It's very evident on the high resolution Euro. CCKWs and active MJO phases help early season storms a lot while background state slowly become more conducive. We still haven't seen African waves move into the EPAC which usually trigger a train of storms, and CAG TC genesis is always tough.

The higher end of the NOAA forcast is predicated on weak El Nino status remaining. But with a warmer PDO and some +PMM configuration, its really hard not to see 17 storms and some higher ACE eventually occuring. Anytime we we had warmer PDO and some +PMM in the past 5 seasons, we've seen some active numbers over the EPAC.

If we don't get 17 named storms, I think we'll see higher ACE regardless due to more long track systems this season.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#88 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:23 am

While May and June activity is usually expected in the EPAC I don't think its a telling sign of what the season has to hold. 2016 started off slow and still achieved 22 named storms despite a La Nina. 2017 started off fast only for the season to fizzle out as cool neutral took hold. Now if July comes by and its still this slow, then season cancel should be considered.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#89 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:26 am

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Umm,the NOAA 17-22 named systems forecast may fall short? Kingarabian What is causing this quiet start?


Unless ENSO flips the way it did in 2017, I think the main culprit here is the suppressed phase of the MJO causing massive sinkage all over the EPAC and will be covering the Atlantic soon. It's very evident on the high resolution Euro. CCKWs and active MJO phases help early season storms a lot while background state slowly become more conducive. We still haven't seen African waves move into the EPAC which usually trigger a train of storms, and CAG TC genesis is always tough.

The higher end of the NOAA forcast is predicated on weak El Nino status remaining. But with a warmer PDO and some +PMM configuration, its really hard not to see 17 storms and some higher ACE eventually occuring. Anytime we we had warmer PDO and some +PMM in the past 5 seasons, we've seen some active numbers over the EPAC.

If we don't get 17 named storms, I think we'll see higher ACE regardless due to more long track systems this season.


Thank you for your always good insights about this basin. In other words it may be quality over quantity but time will tell the real story on real time as the weeks go by.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#90 Postby StruThiO » Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:30 am

First season since 2011 without a named storm before June. Just an interesting tidbit NOT any sort of indicator for the season
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#91 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:42 pm

cycloneye wrote:Umm,the NOAA 17-22 named systems forecast may fall short? Kingarabian What is causing this quiet start?


2018 solidified in my mind that the basin is prone to large intraseasonal swings so making a take like that in early June is a bit premature to say the least.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#92 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:54 pm

StruThiO wrote:First season since 2011 without a named storm before June. Just an interesting tidbit NOT any sort of indicator for the season

Well 2016 only had Hurricane Pali in January due to a record El Nino. Otherwise it had to wait til the first week ol June for a weak TD. But yeah its interesting nonetheless.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#93 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:49 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
StruThiO wrote:First season since 2011 without a named storm before June. Just an interesting tidbit NOT any sort of indicator for the season

Well 2016 only had Hurricane Pali in January due to a record El Nino. Otherwise it had to wait til the first week ol June for a weak TD. But yeah its interesting nonetheless.


2016 also didn't have any named storms in May/June before going bonkers in the next 12 weeks. Overshadowed by the 2014/2015 but honestly a good example of a how an inactive June doesn't mean much in terms of overall season outlook. I could see a situation where 2018 duplicates that.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#94 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:54 pm

This use to be in the first post in threads in the past.

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#95 Postby NotSparta » Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:03 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Umm,the NOAA 17-22 named systems forecast may fall short? Kingarabian What is causing this quiet start?


Unless ENSO flips the way it did in 2017, I think the main culprit here is the suppressed phase of the MJO causing massive sinkage all over the EPAC and will be covering the Atlantic soon. It's very evident on the high resolution Euro. CCKWs and active MJO phases help early season storms a lot while background state slowly become more conducive. We still haven't seen African waves move into the EPAC which usually trigger a train of storms, and CAG TC genesis is always tough.

The higher end of the NOAA forcast is predicated on weak El Nino status remaining. But with a warmer PDO and some +PMM configuration, its really hard not to see 17 storms and some higher ACE eventually occuring. Anytime we we had warmer PDO and some +PMM in the past 5 seasons, we've seen some active numbers over the EPAC.

If we don't get 17 named storms, I think we'll see higher ACE regardless due to more long track systems this season.


Not quite, the midpoint of the range is based on weak El Niño continuing. The high point is if it strengthens.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#96 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:04 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Umm,the NOAA 17-22 named systems forecast may fall short? Kingarabian What is causing this quiet start?


Unless ENSO flips the way it did in 2017, I think the main culprit here is the suppressed phase of the MJO causing massive sinkage all over the EPAC and will be covering the Atlantic soon. It's very evident on the high resolution Euro. CCKWs and active MJO phases help early season storms a lot while background state slowly become more conducive. We still haven't seen African waves move into the EPAC which usually trigger a train of storms, and CAG TC genesis is always tough.

The higher end of the NOAA forcast is predicated on weak El Nino status remaining. But with a warmer PDO and some +PMM configuration, its really hard not to see 17 storms and some higher ACE eventually occuring. Anytime we we had warmer PDO and some +PMM in the past 5 seasons, we've seen some active numbers over the EPAC.

If we don't get 17 named storms, I think we'll see higher ACE regardless due to more long track systems this season.


Not quite, the midpoint of the range is based on weak El Niño continuing. The high point is if it strengthens.


Oh they said that in their forecast? I didnt read it, ill take a look at it later.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#97 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:55 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Unless ENSO flips the way it did in 2017, I think the main culprit here is the suppressed phase of the MJO causing massive sinkage all over the EPAC and will be covering the Atlantic soon. It's very evident on the high resolution Euro. CCKWs and active MJO phases help early season storms a lot while background state slowly become more conducive. We still haven't seen African waves move into the EPAC which usually trigger a train of storms, and CAG TC genesis is always tough.

The higher end of the NOAA forcast is predicated on weak El Nino status remaining. But with a warmer PDO and some +PMM configuration, its really hard not to see 17 storms and some higher ACE eventually occuring. Anytime we we had warmer PDO and some +PMM in the past 5 seasons, we've seen some active numbers over the EPAC.

If we don't get 17 named storms, I think we'll see higher ACE regardless due to more long track systems this season.


Not quite, the midpoint of the range is based on weak El Niño continuing. The high point is if it strengthens.


Oh they said that in their forecast? I didnt read it, ill take a look at it later.


The range IIRC is usually like 1 standard deviation from the mean value in the outlook.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#98 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:04 pm

Looking at the SST profile, I wouldn't expect much early season activity just based on the tracks early season storms typically take. Modoki-like configuration screams a west based season, although if the El Nino fizzles out, activity could shift a bit eastward. Maybe I'll do a more through outlook.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#99 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:27 pm

:uarrow:
I agree this will likely be a west-based season. With ENSO likely to remain warm neutral at coolest and possibly even weak El Nino for the season, as well as a strong +PMM, it's hard to imagine not having another above-average season. I'm expecting an uptick in activity in the second half of June when the MJO enters a more favorable phase for development. We'll probably see some longtrackers beginning in July.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#100 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 05, 2019 3:59 am

Looks like the Euro has heard us all and shows a system on day 7:
Image
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