2019 EPAC season

[Kingarabian]

I think this season is over, at least for hurricanes , won´t it surpass 2017 season in terms of ACE right?

Still possible to pass 2017 in terms of ACE. There's a good chance we see up to 4 more named systems between now and the end of November. November has produced some odd ball systems in the past, including semi-long trackers regardless of the season being favorable or not.

[somethingfunny]

I think this season is over, at least for hurricanes , won´t it surpass 2017 season in terms of ACE right?

You may end up regretting that comment. October has produced lots of hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific before. Most recently Willa formed on October 20th just last year and peaked as a category five before striking Mexico... And there have been many many others in the past. This is usually the most dangerous month of the season for the western coast of Mexico.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast
of southeastern Mexico early next week. Gradual development of
this system is possible after that time, and a tropical depression
could form by midweek while it moves west-northwestward just off the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Astromanía]

I think this season is over, at least for hurricanes , won´t it surpass 2017 season in terms of ACE right?

You may end up regretting that comment. October has produced lots of hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific before. Most recently Willa formed on October 20th just last year and peaked as a category five before striking Mexico... And there have been many many others in the past. This is usually the most dangerous month of the season for the western coast of Mexico.

I know that but October this year in EPAC don't seem to be like that. Models don´t support anything strong so far, maybe we may get some hurricane here and there but not majors, but as Kingarabian says we may end up with more ACE than 2017 with some tropical storms, we are already close to that

[Kingarabian]

Astromania could be right actually... Suppressed atmospheric Kelvin wave might be enough to stop TC development until the last week of October.


 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1183725237663342592

[aspen]

The disturbance off the coast of Central America has a 60/80 chance of development and could become a TD as early as tomorrow. However, like Narda, it will probably stay too close to the coast to become anything significant, maybe just enough to add a unit or two of ACE to this season’s total.

[galaxy401]

So the EPAC just had two disturbances this past week that both got up to a 90% chance of developing but never did actually develop. Seems like nothing is able to develop in the West Hemisphere this October.

[Steve820]

We now have 99E out on the open Pacific which could be Octave (currently 80/80). Hopefully it will not blow its chance like 96E and PTC 17-E did earlier this month.

[Astromanía]

We now have 99E out on the open Pacific which could be Octave (currently 80/80). Hopefully it will not blow its chance like 96E and PTC 17-E did earlier this month.

It is now tropical depression eighteen-e

It has a chance to be a tropical storm before die

[AnnularCane]

Nice forecast "cone."

[Kingarabian]

Per Ryan Maue's ACE numbers, 2019 has surpassed 2017 in terms of ACE. Very similar in storm totals but 2017 had 3 more hurricanes.

[Astromanía]

Per Ryan Maue's ACE numbers, 2019 has surpassed 2017 in terms of ACE. Very similar in storm totals but 2017 had 3 more hurricanes.

Yeah 2019 EPAC made it , it was hard

[Astromanía]

I don´t want to think this season is already over

[EquusStorm]

GFS fantasyland wants a strong tropical storm or hurricane as we cross into December, but... GFS fantasyland.

[Kingarabian]

And that's all she wrote. I have to say this season was quite a disappointment. Failed to see significant long tracking fish take advantage of a warm PDO and warmer waters near the CPAC. Lot's of easterly shear. Also instability seemed to be lacking for the most part.

[aspen]

I think 2018 got us a little too hopeful for the 2019 EPac season, with its 300+ units of ACE and 10 Cat 4-5 hurricanes. It was very unlikely 2019 could get close to those absurd numbers. The only thing notable from this season was 135 kt Hurricane Barbara during the July eclipse.

[Astromanía]

I think 2018 got us a little too hopeful for the 2019 EPac season, with its 300+ units of ACE and 10 Cat 4-5 hurricanes. It was very unlikely 2019 could get close to those absurd numbers. The only thing notable from this season was 135 kt Hurricane Barbara during the July eclipse.

Oh yes that was something to remember, so beautiful! two natural phenoms at the same time

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Pacific/status/1201512719435718656

[Astromanía]

Well this season was definitely not what everyone was expecting, a real dissapoint, getting ACE numbers near normal, but at least for named storms it was above average and there was action at times, I think, Barbara, Erick, Juliette, Kiko, Lorena and Narda saved this overall boring season. However, this decade was amazing! so many records broken!, I wonder how this next decade will be for EPAC, especially next season, I wonder if we will start slow since the last below average season was 2013 (7 years ago) or it will go bonkers since the start and the second half will turn low, we will see, but as how waters are getting warmer every year I'm expecting something big for Hawaii, Central America, and something worse for Mexico, and why not something for California, only time and mother nature will tell us what will come, but we should be always prepared, happy new year everyone!. I hope in the future more people will get more interested in this amazing basin!