2019 EPAC season

[Yellow Evan]

Lol NHC must be bored.

[NDG]

Chances of a hyperactive active EPAC season are going downhill, IMO.
Above average, yes. But not hyperactive, IMO.

[Kingarabian]

Chances of a hyperactive active EPAC season are going downhill, IMO.
Above average, yes. But not hyperactive, IMO.

Whats your reasoning?

[CyclonicFury]

Chances of a hyperactive active EPAC season are going downhill, IMO.
Above average, yes. But not hyperactive, IMO.

I'd probably agree. While an above average season is still a possibility, with El Niño now expected to dissipate and the EPAC MDR isn't as warm as it has been in recent years.

[Ntxw]

Some of the EPAC biggest ACE years are neutral (tilted warm neutral) and or weak Nino. The PMM/PDO combo is more important (1978, 1990, 1992, 1993, 1994, 2014, 2018 etc) are not notable El Ninos.

But anything like last year will be tough to beat. This year is going to be west of 120W (even closer to 130W) is where favorability is. Waves need to make it out there and stay fairly far south.

[NDG]

Chances of a hyperactive active EPAC season are going downhill, IMO.
Above average, yes. But not hyperactive, IMO.

Whats your reasoning?

Conditions in the far eastern EPAC just don't look too ripe to me like previous years, SSTs are cooler and shear has not been the best where a lot of these systems get born. They would have to stay further south.

[cycloneye]

NDG The best examples are Cosme and TD-4-E that have had a hard time getting they acts together.

[Yellow Evan]

Chances of a hyperactive active EPAC season are going downhill, IMO.
Above average, yes. But not hyperactive, IMO.

I'd probably agree. While an above average season is still a possibility, with El Niño now expected to dissipate and the EPAC MDR isn't as warm as it has been in recent years.

Given how early July was suppose to be the month the EPAC could have bounced back and it has continued to struggle in addition to the reasoning you provided, I'm inclined to agree

[Kingarabian]

Chances of a hyperactive active EPAC season are going downhill, IMO.
Above average, yes. But not hyperactive, IMO.

Whats your reasoning?

Conditions in the far eastern EPAC just don't look too ripe to me like previous years, SSTs are cooler and shear has not been the best where a lot of these systems get born. They would have to stay further south.

I think we saw a similar situation last year during most of July until Hector got going. So I would say there's still a good chance to see a good amount of storms forming around the last week of July through late October. Last year got to a much faster start with a bunch of systems in June due to a more favorable eastern EPAC which hasn't been the case this year.

[Kingarabian]

Chances of a hyperactive active EPAC season are going downhill, IMO.
Above average, yes. But not hyperactive, IMO.

I'd probably agree. While an above average season is still a possibility, with El Niño now expected to dissipate and the EPAC MDR isn't as warm as it has been in recent years.

Given how early July was suppose to be the month the EPAC could have bounced back and it has continued to struggle in addition to the reasoning you provided, I'm inclined to agree

It's still mid July. If current model solutions verify, we could easily catch up to last years totals by the end of July.

After Fabio formed last year, it took nearly a month until Gilma formed, June 30-July29

[Kingarabian]

Using the NESDIS anomaly maps, the SST's over the EPAC are very similar to last years:
2018:


2019:


So unless there's something evidently prohibitive atmospherically, I would hold off on calling season cancel until mid August.

[CyclonicFury]

I'd probably agree. While an above average season is still a possibility, with El Niño now expected to dissipate and the EPAC MDR isn't as warm as it has been in recent years.

Given how early July was suppose to be the month the EPAC could have bounced back and it has continued to struggle in addition to the reasoning you provided, I'm inclined to agree

It's still mid July. If current model solutions verify, we could easily catch up to last years totals by the end of July.

After Fabio formed last year, it took nearly a month until Gilma formed.

In order to catch up to last year's totals we would need to go 4-2-1 for the rest of the month. Not impossible, but the EPAC would need to get cranking soon. That's not even including Hector which formed on July 31.

It's also going to be very difficult to top last year's August, when the EPAC was seemingly rolling out a new TC every few days.

[Kingarabian]

Given how early July was suppose to be the month the EPAC could have bounced back and it has continued to struggle in addition to the reasoning you provided, I'm inclined to agree

It's still mid July. If current model solutions verify, we could easily catch up to last years totals by the end of July.

After Fabio formed last year, it took nearly a month until Gilma formed.

In order to catch up to last year's totals we would need to go 4-2-1 for the rest of the month. Not impossible, but the EPAC would need to get cranking soon. That's not even including Hector which formed on July 31.

It's also going to be very difficult to top last year's August, when the EPAC was seemingly rolling out a new TC every few days.

I think it's possible to get another 2 hurricanes and maybe a named TS before August, especially since there is a CCKW moving across the Pacific. Which would bring the numbers close. But yeah the wild card is August.

[NDG]

Using the NESDIS anomaly maps, the SST's over the EPAC are very similar to last years:
2018:
https://i.imgur.com/cEmuhQy.png

2019:
https://i.imgur.com/p09SJd9.gif

So unless there's something evidently prohibitive atmospherically, I would hold off on calling season cancel until mid August.

The area south of Baja is the area I am pointing to, cooler SSTs=more stable atmosphere in this area.

[Kingarabian]

Using the NESDIS anomaly maps, the SST's over the EPAC are very similar to last years:
2018:
https://i.imgur.com/cEmuhQy.png

2019:
https://i.imgur.com/p09SJd9.gif

So unless there's something evidently prohibitive atmospherically, I would hold off on calling season cancel until mid August.

The area south of Baja is the area I am pointing to, cooler SSTs=more stable atmosphere in this area.

That's an interesting note. I'm not sure if it will suppress activity to the point where the season won't be up to par with 2014/2016/2018. But we'll see soon enough.

[NotSparta]

Using the NESDIS anomaly maps, the SST's over the EPAC are very similar to last years:
2018:
https://i.imgur.com/cEmuhQy.png

2019:
https://i.imgur.com/p09SJd9.gif

So unless there's something evidently prohibitive atmospherically, I would hold off on calling season cancel until mid August.

You linked June 13, 2019, but the latest is July 11. Your point still stands though

[NotSparta]

It is difficult to gauge solely thru the different anomaly maps, as it can be distracting and smooth some differences.

Looking at 2019 minus 2018, the EPAC is indeed generally cooler, but the CPAC west of Hawaii is actually warmer than last yr.

[Kingarabian]

It is difficult to gauge solely thru the different anomaly maps, as it can be distracting and smooth some differences.

Looking at 2019 minus 2018, the EPAC is indeed generally cooler, but the CPAC west of Hawaii is actually warmer than last yr.

[url]https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0ee3395776946727fd408962b245a62f8df1d091b843aa28fab5f4930215a85c.gif[url]

Do they have that map in raw SST's rather than just anomalies?

[NotSparta]

It is difficult to gauge solely thru the different anomaly maps, as it can be distracting and smooth some differences.

Looking at 2019 minus 2018, the EPAC is indeed generally cooler, but the CPAC west of Hawaii is actually warmer than last yr.

[url]https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0ee3395776946727fd408962b245a62f8df1d091b843aa28fab5f4930215a85c.gif[url]

Do they have that map in raw SST's rather than just anomalies?

Yes, here is July 11 2019 (no point in subtracting, as subtracting by the same day yields the exact same thing as if you were to do it w/ anomalies)

[Astromanía]

I don´t know what to expect form this season anymore, I don't like this low activity but maybe I was used to the high activity of last season, but also I need to remember that last season had manny periods of inactivity and suddenly long periods of hiperactivity, anyway this season seems to me that it will be more about few strong long trackers hurricanes but not many strong short lived hurricanes near coastal Mexico due to cooler water temperature in that area compared to last season. I will go with a slighly above average season for now, maybe things change for a well above average season but not hyperactive after all. It's frustrating that models show strong hurricanes some time to change for nothing relevant later.