2019 EPAC season

[Chris90]

To be fair, it wasn't until this time last year that the Pacific really did start waking up. One-E did form a few days before the official start of the season, but Aletta didn't come around until June 6th. I feel like the fact it's been quiet so far this year really doesn't mean much. We could very well end up with one of those scenarios where once it takes off, it just keeps going.

[cycloneye]

Second run in a row from ECMWF that develops.

[Kingarabian]

Todays 00z EPS run has 21 members out of 51 showing a TS compared to the 5-7 members in the last 2 runs.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1136640110777122816

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro drops the E-PAC development.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro drops the E-PAC development.

Still has it, but much weaker with delayed development. GFS now shows some minimal development in regards to this future disturbance. This strong suppressed phase of the MJO should keep a lid on things, but anything moving west over the open waters of the EPAC has a chance.

[Kingarabian]

Just as the GFS starts to show development Euro drops it completely.

[NotSparta]

Just as the GFS starts to show development Euro drops it completely.

Ah, good ol' model wars

[NDG]

By this time last year EPAC already had a cat 4 hurricane with a second Cat 4 just a couple of days later. Interesting that in this same area where we saw these two Cat 4 hurricanes the SSTs in this same area are much cooler this year.

[Kingarabian]

By this time last year EPAC already had a cat 4 hurricane with a second Cat 4 just a couple of days later. Interesting that in this same area where we saw these two Cat 4 hurricanes the SSTs in this same area are much cooler this year.

I'm thinking mid level shear is to blame.

[Kingarabian]

00z UKMET and the past couple runs of the GFS show a weak TS/TD forming in about 6-7 days off the coast of Mexico.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has 3 but on long range.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS has 3 but on long range.

UKMET back to no development. 12z Euro showing a weak disturbance in the same spot where the GFS has a weak TS spinning up. Maybe a yellow circle soon as a TW moving into the EPAC in a few days does have some sort of chance to develop

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro/GFS show no development. 00z UKMET/FV3 show development.

[Shell Mound]

Interestingly, both the Atlantic and the EPAC seem to be starting fairly "typically" in 2019, in line with a "normal" early (pre-August) season, that is, with relatively limited activity. If this trend were sustained through August, then either a) both basins may end up below average or b) both seasons may feature an extremely active peak (August-October). With El Niño, if any, likely to be central- or west-based in 2019, the EPAC may end up less active than either the Atlantic or the WPAC. Activity in the EPAC could be concentrated farther west than in 2018, closer to the CPAC and hence the Hawaiian Islands. As in the Atlantic, there are conflicting signals in the EPAC as to how active a season 2019 may bring. Perhaps both seasons may end up between the extremely "bearish" and extremely "bullish" ends of the range of forecasts. We shall see.

[Kingarabian]

00z UKMET and ICON back with development. This is very frustrating.

[Chris90]

The first named storm of the 2009 season didn't form until June 21st, and it was the latest start to a Pacific season in 40 years. We're just a little more than a week away from that date and it is still crickets out there. It would be interesting if we surpass that date this year.
Should be noted that 2009 was fairly active and also produced Rick, one of the most intense for the basin, and he was an absolute beauty. One of my favorites in terms of satellite presentation.
Also, August 2009 was one of the basin's most active Augusts on record, so a late start doesn't mean it won't make up for it in a couple months.

[Shell Mound]

The first named storm of the 2009 season didn't form until June 21st, and it was the latest start to a Pacific season in 40 years. We're just a little more than a week away from that date and it is still crickets out there. It would be interesting if we surpass that date this year.
Should be noted that 2009 was fairly active and also produced Rick, one of the most intense for the basin, and he was an absolute beauty. One of my favorites in terms of satellite presentation.
Also, August 2009 was one of the basin's most active Augusts on record, so a late start doesn't mean it won't make up for it in a couple months.

Intriguingly, 1992 has borne some resemblance to 2019, thus far, at least atmospherically, and is a potential analog, along with 2002 and 2004. Notoriously, 1992 featured the most intense hurricane to strike Hawaii, Iniki, and also produced Typhoon Omar, which impacted Guam. Uniquely, 1992 featured three Category-4+ strikes on the mainland U.S. and/or American territories: Andrew in South Florida, Iniki in Hawaii, and Omar in the Northern Mariana Islands. As for 2004: its second TC to develop in the EPAC occurred on 12 July, and of all its storms to form in the EPAC, only Javier, a onetime Cat-4, made landfall, as a depression. 2002, of course, is notorious for its three Cat-5 cyclones, including Kenna, but, in line with 1992, featured a much more active start than did either 2004 or this season. Perhaps this season lies somewhere among all three years, as a blend.

[cycloneye]

First run from the new FV3-GFS version showing a Hurricane on long range.

[cycloneye]

18z run the opposite.