2019 EPAC season

[cycloneye]

The word for the models is Inconsistency.No Hurricane for Gulf of California.

[hurricanes1234]

Seeing that the 5-day changes keep gradually going down for 94E, I wouldn't be surprised if the next "system" does the same and either doesn't form at all or something weak and pathetic develops out of it. What a disappointment this season has been, especially for quality long trackers which have been almost nonexistent up to this point with the exception of Barbara and Erick, the latter which only really intensified for a fairly short time due to its size and a temporary window of favourable conditions.

[Chris90]

The euro does seem to be warming to the idea of a storm/hurricane off the coast of Mexico, riding up, but it seems to show it making landfall well before it makes it to the Gulf of California.
One way or another, I do think something will either form here or over in the Gulf of Mexico. I think it's a toss up. Does seem like we could be waiting awhile for another major long tracker.

[ElectricStorm]

Hello. I've been lurking for a while and thought it was time for me to finally get myself involved. Pretty disappointing season so far (besides Barbara). Hopefully we will see some more intense long trackers this season that are not a threat to land. Those are always fun to track.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coasts of
El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico over the weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the low while it moves slowly westward early
next week. Regardless of development, moisture associated with
this system is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible
flash flooding across portions of Central America through early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Astromanía]

LOL

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure has formed a couple of hundred miles
south of the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala and is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of the low, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Slow development of this disturbance is
possible during the next couple of days while it moves
slowly westward across the tropical eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[Ntxw]

95E looks like it has very warm water/decent conditions. Its consolidation will probably be a hindrance to Gulf development.

[cycloneye]

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
a tropical wave located about 850 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Another tropical wave located about 1300 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it
moves slowly westward at about 5 mph across the southwestern portion
of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 96E is up

[cycloneye]

Hey,EPAC is waking up finnally and we may be tracking two hurricanes.

[NotSparta]

CCKW doing its magic

Hopefully there's some nice long trackers away from land to track, been quiet lately on that front

[Yellow Evan]

Hey,EPAC is waking up finnally and we may be tracking two hurricanes.

Two? I only see one possible hurricane (95E).

[1900hurricane]

I can't help but wonder if the large mid-upper ridge over North America (the "Death Ridge") is actually resulting in shear too severe to get development to its south. Perhaps a small scale version of what happens in the NIO this time of year. A powerful mid-upper level ridge would also have subsidence in its vicinity.

[NDG]

I can't help but wonder if the large mid-upper ridge over North America (the "Death Ridge") is actually resulting in shear too severe to get development to its south. Perhaps a small scale version of what happens in the NIO this time of year. A powerful mid-upper level ridge would also have subsidence in its vicinity.

https://i.imgur.com/Wb1Te6S.gif

Those strong UL easterly winds over the EPAC usually means favorable conditions for the Caribbean, usually seen during non-El Niño years. That’s exactly what is happening now as El Niño atmospheric background is finally fading away.

[Nancy Smar]

GENESIS026, EP, E, , , , , 77, 2019, DB, O, 2019082212, 9999999999, , 026, , , , GENESIS, , EP772019

[Kingarabian]

Strong +PDO signature clearly evident:


Nothing to show for it this season.

[Ntxw]

Strong +PDO signature clearly evident:
https://i.imgur.com/lO09QLU.png

Nothing to show for it this season.

Very much a head scratch there. Perhaps whatever is going on Globally with the downturn is playing out in nearly all of the Northern Hemisphere basins (NIO is anomalous but given low spread I don't really count that as spectacular). I think the risk for <100 ACE season is now on the table.

[Kingarabian]

Strong +PDO signature clearly evident:
https://i.imgur.com/lO09QLU.png

Nothing to show for it this season.

Very much a head scratch there. Perhaps whatever is going on Globally with the downturn is playing out in nearly all of the Northern Hemisphere basins (NIO is anomalous but given low spread I don't really count that as spectacular). I think the risk for <100 ACE season is now on the table.

There's some chance for backloaded activity similar to the Atlantic. EPS Weeklies in their most recent update (Aug-22) show that the EPAC will be under sinking motion until September 6, when rising motion takes over and remains in place into October.

[Yellow Evan]

A trough of low pressure is forecast to develop in a few days near
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some development
is possible thereafter while the system moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward through late next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.