Shell Mound wrote:If the upcoming WWB fully materialises and expedites the development of a (potentially very strong) El Niño, then I fully expect a hyperactive 2019 EPAC hurricane season to unfold, likely rivalling the most active seasons on record, in terms of overall activity and especially seasonal ACE indices. The +PMM, although considerably weaker than in recent years, is still present, and the PDO is slowly but surely shifting toward a positive state. The only factor that might hinder activity is a warmer-than-average MDR (possible +AMO) in the Atlantic. Even so, I would still anticipate a top-five season, with more long-tracking threats to Hawaii, although activity is likely to shift farther east vs. 2018.
The PMM being less +ve & the warmer MDR (as you said) would at least partially inhibit an El Niño. Esp since the 2015 event was so recent, I'd say the warmest reasonable is moderate, but a strong El Niño is possible too (even no El Niño at all! It's very early yet)