2019 EPAC season

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#21 Postby NotSparta » Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:29 am

Shell Mound wrote:If the upcoming WWB fully materialises and expedites the development of a (potentially very strong) El Niño, then I fully expect a hyperactive 2019 EPAC hurricane season to unfold, likely rivalling the most active seasons on record, in terms of overall activity and especially seasonal ACE indices. The +PMM, although considerably weaker than in recent years, is still present, and the PDO is slowly but surely shifting toward a positive state. The only factor that might hinder activity is a warmer-than-average MDR (possible +AMO) in the Atlantic. Even so, I would still anticipate a top-five season, with more long-tracking threats to Hawaii, although activity is likely to shift farther east vs. 2018.



The PMM being less +ve & the warmer MDR (as you said) would at least partially inhibit an El Niño. Esp since the 2015 event was so recent, I'd say the warmest reasonable is moderate, but a strong El Niño is possible too (even no El Niño at all! It's very early yet)
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#22 Postby Ntxw » Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:22 pm

In the Atlantic this Kona low might get some "could be" discussions. But in the Pacific it will be lost in the pool of many.

 https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1094691369854078976


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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#23 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:00 pm

Ntxw wrote:In the Atlantic this Kona low might get some "could be" discussions. But in the Pacific it will be lost in the pool of many.

https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1094691369854078976


Bruh thank god Lane didn't hit. This Kona low is hitting my structures hard today. Our north shores are on borderline evacuation status.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#24 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:18 pm

GFS (and Euro to a lesser extent) showing our first CPAC TS of the year due to the WWB that's about to begin.

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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#25 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:24 pm

Looks like its hanging out just on the WPac side of the International Date Line in that run, but it's not impossible it develops on the east side.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#26 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:37 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Looks like its hanging out just on the WPac side of the International Date Line in that run, but it's not impossible it develops on the east side.


True. I still keep making the same mistake and ignoring that anything west of the IDL is the WPAC.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#27 Postby Chris90 » Sun Feb 10, 2019 8:12 pm

With the couple areas of interest in January, and now the possibility of an area developing on the CPAC side or crossing over to the CPAC from WPAC, in addition to the talk of El Nino possibilities for this year, this year's evolution is fascinating. I've seen early pre-season talk of the possibility of a top 5 Atlantic season, as well as talk of a top 5 Pacific season.
Out of curiosity, does anyone know what year featured the highest combined ACE for the EPAC/CPAC and the ATL? Was it last year possibly?
It would be interesting if both basins overachieved and had above average seasons this year, with both the EPAC/CPAC and the ATL achieving ACE of 200 or greater.
I should note, I'm not predicting that, it's just a "what-if" thought I had seeing some people predicting an active ATL with others predicting an active Pacific.
Right now I'm still leaning towards a more active EPAC/CPAC.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#28 Postby NotSparta » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:19 am

Chris90 wrote:With the couple areas of interest in January, and now the possibility of an area developing on the CPAC side or crossing over to the CPAC from WPAC, in addition to the talk of El Nino possibilities for this year, this year's evolution is fascinating. I've seen early pre-season talk of the possibility of a top 5 Atlantic season, as well as talk of a top 5 Pacific season.
Out of curiosity, does anyone know what year featured the highest combined ACE for the EPAC/CPAC and the ATL? Was it last year possibly?
It would be interesting if both basins overachieved and had above average seasons this year, with both the EPAC/CPAC and the ATL achieving ACE of 200 or greater.
I should note, I'm not predicting that, it's just a "what-if" thought I had seeing some people predicting an active ATL with others predicting an active Pacific.
Right now I'm still leaning towards a more active EPAC/CPAC.


Each top 5 season talk you talk about assumes two very different things. The top 5 Pacific season argument assumes that another El Niño begins, & becomes very strong, also w/ a very warm tropical Pacific. This would, in most cases, significantly quiet down the ATL.

The top 5 Atlantic season, on the other hand, assumes that the ENSO retreats from El Niño, and ends up neutral/La Niña, along w/ a cooler tropical Pacific & warmer tropical Atlantic, which would boost the season.

Chances are it'll be between the two
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#29 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:24 pm

NotSparta wrote:Each top 5 season talk you talk about assumes two very different things. The top 5 Pacific season argument assumes that another El Niño begins, & becomes very strong, also w/ a very warm tropical Pacific. This would, in most cases, significantly quiet down the ATL.

The top 5 Atlantic season, on the other hand, assumes that the ENSO retreats from El Niño, and ends up neutral/La Niña, along w/ a cooler tropical Pacific & warmer tropical Atlantic, which would boost the season.

Chances are it'll be between the two


Things may slowly change. With warming waters moving northward in the CPAC and western areas of the EPAC will create an expanded Pacific MDR. Makes years like 2018 close for both being high ACE generators despite ENSO being weak or neutral. That will definitely throw a wrench into things. ENSO may play as boost role with what is a changing background state.
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Re: 2019 EPAC season

#30 Postby NotSparta » Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:09 pm

Ntxw wrote:
NotSparta wrote:Each top 5 season talk you talk about assumes two very different things. The top 5 Pacific season argument assumes that another El Niño begins, & becomes very strong, also w/ a very warm tropical Pacific. This would, in most cases, significantly quiet down the ATL.

The top 5 Atlantic season, on the other hand, assumes that the ENSO retreats from El Niño, and ends up neutral/La Niña, along w/ a cooler tropical Pacific & warmer tropical Atlantic, which would boost the season.

Chances are it'll be between the two


Things may slowly change. With warming waters moving northward in the CPAC and western areas of the EPAC will create an expanded Pacific MDR. Makes years like 2018 close for both being high ACE generators despite ENSO being weak or neutral. That will definitely throw a wrench into things. ENSO may play as boost role with what is a changing background state.


I agree, & lean towards another active CP/EP season (w/ +ENSO as well), but I'm not so sure about a top 5 season like some are saying
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:


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