2019 ATL Season

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2019 ATL Season

#1 Postby Pressure » Mon Dec 31, 2018 5:02 pm

Its been a while since ive been on S2K, but im back for another rollercoaster ride that is the Atl basins season 8-)
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#2 Postby NotSparta » Mon Dec 31, 2018 5:35 pm

Too much uncertainty to give much of a call. I have some confidence that SSTs end up more favorable, but there is a lot of uncertainty w/ ENSO & other basins. Probably not wise to try to forecast before April
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#3 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:38 pm

NotSparta wrote:Too much uncertainty to give much of a call. I have some confidence that SSTs end up more favorable, but there is a lot of uncertainty w/ ENSO & other basins. Probably not wise to try to forecast before April

Knowing that this season could likely be another tough one to forecast it’s probably wise not to make any guesses before June. Even after the spring barrier there was still quite a bit of uncertainty.
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#4 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Jan 01, 2019 12:14 am

When was the last time we had a season that was easier to forecast? 2015?
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#5 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:28 am

AnnularCane wrote:When was the last time we had a season that was easier to forecast? 2015?

2017.
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#6 Postby NotSparta » Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:58 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:When was the last time we had a season that was easier to forecast? 2015?

2017.


It varied pretty wildly though. First looked like an inactive season then rapidly got an active look
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#7 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Jan 01, 2019 12:25 pm

NotSparta wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:When was the last time we had a season that was easier to forecast? 2015?

2017.

It varied pretty wildly though. First looked like an inactive season then rapidly got an active look

How does the current AMO index compare to 2017's at this point?
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#8 Postby NotSparta » Tue Jan 01, 2019 7:14 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:2017.

It varied pretty wildly though. First looked like an inactive season then rapidly got an active look

How does the current AMO index compare to 2017's at this point?

I'm guessing you mean 2016-7, it doesn't look much different, but the cool and warm anomalies are in different areas
2019:
Image

2017:
Image
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#9 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:35 am

NotSparta wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
NotSparta wrote:It varied pretty wildly though. First looked like an inactive season then rapidly got an active look

How does the current AMO index compare to 2017's at this point?

I'm guessing you mean 2016-7, it doesn't look much different, but the cool and warm anomalies are in different areas
2019:
https://i.imgur.com/uOlnpn0.gif

2017:
https://i.imgur.com/YrguHZp.gif

Guarantee you that first map will look completely different come June 1st. Too soon to say if this weak/likely to be short-lived El Niño will be around long enough to fully shutdown the Atlantic 2019 Hurricane Season or not.
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#10 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:50 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:How does the current AMO index compare to 2017's at this point?

I'm guessing you mean 2016-7, it doesn't look much different, but the cool and warm anomalies are in different areas
2019:
https://i.imgur.com/uOlnpn0.gif

2017:
https://i.imgur.com/YrguHZp.gif

Guarantee you that first map will look completely different come June 1st. Too soon to say if this weak/likely to be short-lived El Niño will be around long enough to fully shutdown the Atlantic 2019 Hurricane Season or not.

Even if we are in an El Niño come summer/fall 2019, the Atlantic may not even be shut down completely. Despite a hyperactive EPAC and El Niño like shear in the tropical Atlantic for most of the season, the Atlantic still managed above average activity. The subtropics have been busy in recent years, even those with El Niño conditions.
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#11 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:47 pm

In this decade, 2011 and 2015 were probably the easiest to forecast in that almost unanimous agreement existed on a busy 2011 and a slow 2015. That said, neither year was quite as extreme as we thought...
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#12 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:32 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:In this decade, 2011 and 2015 were probably the easiest to forecast in that almost unanimous agreement existed on a busy 2011 and a slow 2015. That said, neither year was quite as extreme as we thought...

What about 2010?
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#13 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 31, 2019 4:56 pm

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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#14 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:11 pm

On the one hand, the atmosphere has not been coupling effectively with the ocean to produce robust El Niño conditions thus far. On the other hand, the very weak El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific allow the warm subsurface to linger longer, since less heat content is used up in the process. Given that the GFS (and sometimes the ECMWF) has been overestimating the projected intensity of westerly wind bursts over the western North Pacific, El Niño may not develop much farther along than it already has up to this point in time. This may be a late-blooming event that never manages to develop beyond a very weak state and reverts to neutral or even cool neutral ENSO by late summer/early fall 2019. If that happens, then a very active 2019 Atlantic hurricane season is a real possibility.

A useful link explains the current situation nicely:

Often, if the ocean begins to exhibit El Niño characteristics, the atmosphere will follow suit, but so far in this event, that hasn’t really happened. Most atmospheric indicators currently suggest neutral conditions — neither El Niño nor La Niña. The exception right now is the convection (i.e. rainfall) pattern in the equatorial Pacific — it’s starting to look a little more like what we might see during El Niño. Barnston said there have been cases in the past where that convection pattern doesn’t appear until February during an El Niño cycle, so it’s possible this event could still rally. But by then, many of the strongest known El Niño climate impact signals are fizzling out.

...

To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Nino3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows the outputs of these models, some of which use equations based on our physical understanding of the system (called dynamical models), and some of which use statistics, based on the long record of historical observations.

The models’ predictions are on the whole slightly cooler than last month’s data. The dynamical models are showing a more dramatic weakening predicted in the latter part of the forecast period compared to what was predicted last month.
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#15 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:25 pm




How come nobody posts those countdown threads anymore?
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#16 Postby Steve » Sat Feb 02, 2019 12:10 am

It’s up in the air for me. El Niño is Modoki and relatively weak. Atlantic ssts look a little warmer overall (still in +AMO I would think) and particularly Eastern equatorial waters. Gulf is cold as per the 1/31 SSTA map. Highs have been angling toward east of here, so we will have to watch the evolution of the winter pattern/southern stream and how the highs set up as we move to the middle of winter. That has implications for the SE Coast, Bahamas and East Gulf at least if anything tried to come up from the Western Caribbean. Lots of warm water off New England and eastern Canada. We will have to watch reversals and changes in the water temperature profiles through the spring to gauge a threat on the US. As of 2/1, you’d have to think lots of recurves and maybe an east coast threat.

But it will all evolve by 4 months when the season starts and patterns set up.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#17 Postby NotSparta » Sat Feb 02, 2019 7:27 am

Shell Mound wrote:On the one hand, the atmosphere has not been coupling effectively with the ocean to produce robust El Niño conditions thus far. On the other hand, the very weak El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific allow the warm subsurface to linger longer, since less heat content is used up in the process. Given that the GFS (and sometimes the ECMWF) has been overestimating the projected intensity of westerly wind bursts over the western North Pacific, El Niño may not develop much farther along than it already has up to this point in time. This may be a late-blooming event that never manages to develop beyond a very weak state and reverts to neutral or even cool neutral ENSO by late summer/early fall 2019. If that happens, then a very active 2019 Atlantic hurricane season is a real possibility.

A useful link explains the current situation nicely:

Often, if the ocean begins to exhibit El Niño characteristics, the atmosphere will follow suit, but so far in this event, that hasn’t really happened. Most atmospheric indicators currently suggest neutral conditions — neither El Niño nor La Niña. The exception right now is the convection (i.e. rainfall) pattern in the equatorial Pacific — it’s starting to look a little more like what we might see during El Niño. Barnston said there have been cases in the past where that convection pattern doesn’t appear until February during an El Niño cycle, so it’s possible this event could still rally. But by then, many of the strongest known El Niño climate impact signals are fizzling out.

...

To predict ENSO conditions, computers model the SSTs in the Nino3.4 region over the next several months. The plume graph below shows the outputs of these models, some of which use equations based on our physical understanding of the system (called dynamical models), and some of which use statistics, based on the long record of historical observations.

The models’ predictions are on the whole slightly cooler than last month’s data. The dynamical models are showing a more dramatic weakening predicted in the latter part of the forecast period compared to what was predicted last month.


Seems similar to 2015 (but I don't think if another Niño event happens it will be anywhere close to as strong as 2015) to me. It doesn't look like we'll be seeing an extreme -AMO this time around, but ENSO is a major wildcard.
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#18 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Feb 02, 2019 10:20 am

My early guess is active. We're in a weak-El Nino right now. Usually a winter El Nino collapses to either neutral or a cool-bias by the time of peak-season. Anomalies in the 3.4 region appear to have peaked around December and are on the way down. Probably have a better idea in a month.
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#19 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:20 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:In this decade, 2011 and 2015 were probably the easiest to forecast in that almost unanimous agreement existed on a busy 2011 and a slow 2015. That said, neither year was quite as extreme as we thought...

What about 2010?


There was still some uncertainty this far out about how the departing El Nino would affect that year.
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#20 Postby NotSparta » Sun Feb 03, 2019 10:45 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:My early guess is active. We're in a weak-El Nino right now. Usually a winter El Nino collapses to either neutral or a cool-bias by the time of peak-season. Anomalies in the 3.4 region appear to have peaked around December and are on the way down. Probably have a better idea in a month.


It's hard to tell. I've heard rumblings about another double dip Niño
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