2019 ATL Season

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2019 ATL Season

#1 Postby Pressure » Mon Dec 31, 2018 5:02 pm

Its been a while since ive been on S2K, but im back for another rollercoaster ride that is the Atl basins season 8-)
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#2 Postby NotSparta » Mon Dec 31, 2018 5:35 pm

Too much uncertainty to give much of a call. I have some confidence that SSTs end up more favorable, but there is a lot of uncertainty w/ ENSO & other basins. Probably not wise to try to forecast before April
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#3 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:38 pm

NotSparta wrote:Too much uncertainty to give much of a call. I have some confidence that SSTs end up more favorable, but there is a lot of uncertainty w/ ENSO & other basins. Probably not wise to try to forecast before April

Knowing that this season could likely be another tough one to forecast it’s probably wise not to make any guesses before June. Even after the spring barrier there was still quite a bit of uncertainty.
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#4 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Jan 01, 2019 12:14 am

When was the last time we had a season that was easier to forecast? 2015?
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#5 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:28 am

AnnularCane wrote:When was the last time we had a season that was easier to forecast? 2015?

2017.
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#6 Postby NotSparta » Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:58 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:When was the last time we had a season that was easier to forecast? 2015?

2017.


It varied pretty wildly though. First looked like an inactive season then rapidly got an active look
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#7 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Jan 01, 2019 12:25 pm

NotSparta wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:When was the last time we had a season that was easier to forecast? 2015?

2017.

It varied pretty wildly though. First looked like an inactive season then rapidly got an active look

How does the current AMO index compare to 2017's at this point?
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#8 Postby NotSparta » Tue Jan 01, 2019 7:14 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:2017.

It varied pretty wildly though. First looked like an inactive season then rapidly got an active look

How does the current AMO index compare to 2017's at this point?

I'm guessing you mean 2016-7, it doesn't look much different, but the cool and warm anomalies are in different areas
2019:
Image

2017:
Image
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#9 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:35 am

NotSparta wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
NotSparta wrote:It varied pretty wildly though. First looked like an inactive season then rapidly got an active look

How does the current AMO index compare to 2017's at this point?

I'm guessing you mean 2016-7, it doesn't look much different, but the cool and warm anomalies are in different areas
2019:
https://i.imgur.com/uOlnpn0.gif

2017:
https://i.imgur.com/YrguHZp.gif

Guarantee you that first map will look completely different come June 1st. Too soon to say if this weak/likely to be short-lived El Niño will be around long enough to fully shutdown the Atlantic 2019 Hurricane Season or not.
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#10 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:50 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:How does the current AMO index compare to 2017's at this point?

I'm guessing you mean 2016-7, it doesn't look much different, but the cool and warm anomalies are in different areas
2019:
https://i.imgur.com/uOlnpn0.gif

2017:
https://i.imgur.com/YrguHZp.gif

Guarantee you that first map will look completely different come June 1st. Too soon to say if this weak/likely to be short-lived El Niño will be around long enough to fully shutdown the Atlantic 2019 Hurricane Season or not.

Even if we are in an El Niño come summer/fall 2019, the Atlantic may not even be shut down completely. Despite a hyperactive EPAC and El Niño like shear in the tropical Atlantic for most of the season, the Atlantic still managed above average activity. The subtropics have been busy in recent years, even those with El Niño conditions.
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#11 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:47 pm

In this decade, 2011 and 2015 were probably the easiest to forecast in that almost unanimous agreement existed on a busy 2011 and a slow 2015. That said, neither year was quite as extreme as we thought...
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#12 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:32 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:In this decade, 2011 and 2015 were probably the easiest to forecast in that almost unanimous agreement existed on a busy 2011 and a slow 2015. That said, neither year was quite as extreme as we thought...

What about 2010?
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