2019 ATL Season

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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#21 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:39 pm

Based on the warm anomalies of 3.4 being less than they were in December- as mentioned by another poster above- I think we are headed to neutral or possibly even weak La Niña conditions towards the late summer. I think this Atlantic Hurricane Season will be quite active.
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ncforecaster89
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#22 Postby ncforecaster89 » Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:03 am

For me, we’re still too far out in time to even provide a reasonable best educated guess. Come June 1, we’ll have a much better idea of where we stand relative to the state of the important atmospheric and oceanic indicators, and their likely influence on the peak months of the 2019 season.

As such, thought I’d share a few interesting continental USA hurricane landfall statistics (dating back to 1851) that are relative to the 2019 season.

1) There have been at least one major hurricane landfall, for three consecutive years/seasons, on 5 different occasions. These periods are 1854-1856, 1898-1900, 1915-1919, 1947-1950, and 1957-1961.

2) There have been at least one category 4 or greater landfall, in three consecutive seasons, on two different occasions. These are the periods of 1947-1950 & 1959-1961.

In addition, the 1957 and 1958 seasons each had a hurricane that struck the continental USA as a borderline category three/four hurricane; Audrey in 1957 as a direct landfall and Helene in 1958 as a powerful Cat 4 hurricane that hit the NC coastline with 110 kt maximum sustained winds...while remaining just offshore.

3) Each of the two periods, of at least 3 consecutive years with a category four hurricane landfall, had at least one make landfall somewhere on the east coast of the USA.

The Big Question: Will the 2019 Atlantic basin hurricane season produce the continental USA hurricane landfalls required to join, any or all of, the 3 year periods listed above?
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Re: 2019 ATL Season

#23 Postby chaser1 » Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:03 pm

:uarrow: My take-away is that if there were only 5 (tri-year period) occasions where "3 year periods" occurred having a U.S. major land-falling hurricane occur during each of those years..... that the odd's would seem quite against this from occurring. The fact that the prior two seasons did have a major hurricane that made U.S. landfall, would seem to suggest that the odds of this occurring in 2019 would be quite nominal. One could further extrapolate from this, that the 2019 Atlantic Season "might"
1) be generally weak or possibly an over-all slower season, OR
2) That the 2019 Season will largely contain storm tracks that remain to our south or re-curving east of the CONUS Of course, this is simply looking at it from a percentages viewpoint (not a scientific perspective).
3) The flip side to the above is of course the possibility that 2019 caps our 6th - 3 year cycle containing years where a major hurricane struck the CONUS in each of those years.

I'm presently leaning toward a solution that is a combination of #1 and #2. The irony here is that even if I were generally right, one hypothetical outcome (NOT a forecast) could still be the type of year where there may be a mix of tropical/sub-tropical storms, perhaps only a total of about 10 named storms, 7 of which re-curving "non-landfalls", yet potentially still having 2 Cat. 2 hurricanes that do strike the CONUS. That alone could easily still result in what many would call a destructive season; Just would depend on the size of storm, speed of motion, associated flooding, and other factors.
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