2019 NIO Cyclone Season

[doomhaMwx]

Wow, 3 very severe cyclonic storms (typhoon/hurricane intensity) in a row just during the last 2 weeks or so if IMD's forecast for Matmo's remnants verifies!

[aspen]

I think there’s a chance we could see one last significant system in the NIO. Specifically, in the Bay of Bengal, which still has high enough SSTs/OHCs to support a sub-900 mbar storm. There’s very little time left to the season but I’m not letting my eye off of it yet.

[1900hurricane]

Climatologically speaking, this is actually still the heart of the NIO second season.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1176182033661472768

[doomhaMwx]

Perhaps a low latitude system from the WPAC and moving into the NIO?

[aspen]

The NIO is pulling off one last hurrah with a pair of simultaneously active TCs in the Arabian Sea....in December.

[1900hurricane]

My ACE count for the NIO prior to 06A and 07A's development was 87.1575 units. Don't think this'll push us to 100, but you never know!

[doomhaMwx]

INVEST 92B also has model support for development once it moves into the Arabian Sea within the next couple of days. The BOB may also produce one more TC before the year ends.

The favorable phase of the MJO is currently passing through the Indian Ocean region. No wonder it's a busy start of December for the NIO (also thanks to the positive IOD which is the main reason behind the significant tropical activity that the basin has seen this year). Not to mention there are a couple of invests south of the equator that also have a shot of becoming tropical storms within the next few days.

[doomhaMwx]

The 2019 NIO cyclone season ends as the most active NIO cyclone season on record in terms of ACE, with an ACE of 88.6 units as compared to the long-term average of only 19.1 (figures from CSU as of Dec 30). This is almost double the previous record high ACE of 46.1, which occurred in 2007. While the number of tropical/cyclonic storms (eight) is slightly lesser compared to some seasons, six of these became severe cyclonic storms(hurricane/typhoon strength), which is also a record high. 2019 also produced the basin's only super cyclonic storm of the 2010s decade—Super Cylonic Storm "Kyarr".

The significant activity can be attributed to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) which began in late-May or June this year and then quickly strengthened to "strongly positive" conditions. In a positive IOD, sea surface temperatures are warmer on the western part of the Indian Ocean and cooler on the eastern part (which is also why most of the storms formed over the Arabian Sea this year). Positive IOD conditions currently remain in place but are now returning to neutral conditions according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Nort ... one_season

Happy New Year to everyone!

[aspen]

Kyarr appears to have been downgraded in post-season analysis to 130 kt and 922 mbar. Previously, it was 135 kt (briefly) and 915 mbar, but was almost certainly yet another underestimated 2019 Cat 5.

Sometimes I wonder what the JTWC is even looking at...