2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

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2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:00 am

Here is our annual thread for the indicators topic this time the 2019 North Atlantic indicators.Is important to have this thread early to see how things are evolving in the important factor of the steering as we will see based on that which areas in the basin may have visits of tropical systems. Also,it will be important to see how the pressures will be,how the shear is doing,how are the MSLP forecasts going to be and how the waters are in terms of being more warm or not. And also we have to follow how things are evolving in the Saharan air Layer and in the Vertical Instability factor. If anyone wants to comment about ENSO,you can do it here.Post away your take folks.

Note=This thread is not to post forecast numbers but to discuss about how things are going in the factors this thread is enlisting. There will be our annual poll for that starting on May 1rst. As a matter of fact,this thread will help you a bit to decide about the numbers game with all the information that will be posted.

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https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /nao.shtml

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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

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http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/



ECMWF MSLP updates
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability

#2 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:45 pm

The big question for the 2019 season is whether El Niño persists and strengthens or if it dissipates. While models seem to favor the Niño gradually weakening throughout 2019, we are still well on the front end of the SPB, and I cannot think about what the 2019 Atlantic season will be like yet.

I will say one thing - don't underestimate the west African monsoon or potential subtropical developments when coming up with numbers. For the best chance of having an accurate forecast, don't predict below 10 or above 20 NS. We won't have a good idea of what ENSO will be like for the 2019 season until May or so.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:34 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:The big question for the 2019 season is whether El Niño persists and strengthens or if it dissipates. While models seem to favor the Niño gradually weakening throughout 2019, we are still well on the front end of the SPB, and I cannot think about what the 2019 Atlantic season will be like yet.

I will say one thing - don't underestimate the west African monsoon or potential subtropical developments when coming up with numbers. For the best chance of having an accurate forecast, don't predict below 10 or above 20 NS. We won't have a good idea of what ENSO will be like for the 2019 season until May or so.


Agreed 100%.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability

#4 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:49 pm

Euro not calling for a Super El Nino for once!

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability

#5 Postby NotSparta » Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:59 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Euro not calling for a Super El Nino for once!

https://i.imgur.com/5HXDEGA.png


Looks like weak Modoki (ish) Niño. Interesting given its big warm bias most of the time. I guess things will be clearer after the SPB, way out there for now
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability

#6 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:46 pm

I know it's January and it's way too early for these discussions and I know the MJO is currently stuck in the El Nino phases,

But ENSO and MJO activity aside, on the Pacific and Atlantic ocean SST configuration side of things, there appears to be some 2005 similarities. Before the Govt. shutdown, based on the TAO buoys, the only subsurface comparison I could find that lined up with December 2018 was December 2004/January 2005.

1st week of January EPAC anomalies were very close to the 1st week of January 2005 EPAC anomalies. Main difference is that PDO was much cooler in 2005 compared to the current presentation.

That Euro January forecast for July is eyebrow raising now that I think of it.

However there will be a series of downwelling Kelvin waves coming through between now and February. Those need to be monitored because if they push anomalies between +3C/+4C then there will be much warmer anomalies heading towards the EPAC especially compared to 2005. That would negate any 2005 comparisons regardless if we EPAC WWB's or not. But if those downwelling Kelvin waves fail to get the job done (similar to 2017) ,then I think there's a chance that the Euro is on to something.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability

#7 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:16 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Euro not calling for a Super El Nino for once!

https://i.imgur.com/5HXDEGA.png

Looks like a setup similar to 2004 with the madoki El Niño, the thing I noticed in real time is no WWBs east of the dateline and mostly easterlies east of the date line which would upwell the subsurface around or just east of the dateline which would cause a madoki effect in the ENSO, let’s hope this doesn’t continue or we’re going to have another nasty hurricane season. Here’s hoping for El Niño takes off and we have a quiet and none deadly season similar to what the CFSv2 shows because we don’t need another 2004 or 2005 type season
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability

#8 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:24 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Euro not calling for a Super El Nino for once!

https://i.imgur.com/5HXDEGA.png

Looks like a setup similar to 2004 with the madoki El Niño, the thing I noticed in real time is no WWBs east of the dateline and mostly easterlies east of the date line which would upwell the subsurface around or just east of the dateline which would cause a madoki effect in the ENSO, let’s hope this doesn’t continue or we’re going to have another nasty hurricane season. Here’s hoping for El Niño takes off and we have a quiet and none deadly season similar to what the CFSv2 shows because we don’t need another 2004 or 2005 type season


Right now (this time of the year) most WWB's will be over the WPAC. Their persistence in that region help trigger monster downwelling Kelvin waves. We don't normally see WWB's east of the dateline this early, and they usually happen in March-April-May. If we don't observe WWB's east of the dateline then, then of course you El Nino cancel.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability

#9 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:44 am

Definitely interesting that the Euro predicts a neutral ENSO, it’s really something to watch, since it usually has a pretty large bias too warm. The comparisons to 2004-05 are also pretty fascinating too, since this year doesn’t line up that well with other years. We’re still a very long way out from the Spring Barrier, so a lot will change between now and then.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability

#10 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:42 pm

weathaguyry wrote:Definitely interesting that the Euro predicts a neutral ENSO, it’s really something to watch, since it usually has a pretty large bias too warm. The comparisons to 2004-05 are also pretty fascinating too, since this year doesn’t line up that well with other years. We’re still a very long way out from the Spring Barrier, so a lot will change between now and then.


It'll be another tough year for forecasters. By Spring we will be either teetering on the verge of another double dip El Nino similar to 1997 and 2015, or an SST configuration that proceeded the 2005 hurricane season.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability

#11 Postby NotSparta » Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:59 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:Definitely interesting that the Euro predicts a neutral ENSO, it’s really something to watch, since it usually has a pretty large bias too warm. The comparisons to 2004-05 are also pretty fascinating too, since this year doesn’t line up that well with other years. We’re still a very long way out from the Spring Barrier, so a lot will change between now and then.


It'll be another tough year for forecasters. By Spring we will be either teetering on the verge of another double dip El Nino similar to 1997 and 2015, or an SST configuration that proceeded the 2005 hurricane season.

Maybe similar in the PAC, but the Atlantic needs a lot of work to look similar to that
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability

#12 Postby StruThiO » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:23 am

there does look to be quite a bit of warmth in the far eastern tropical atlantic right now, but is only January so could very easily change

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability

#13 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:40 pm

Interesting warmup on January in GOM loop current area.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability

#14 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:Interesting warmup on January in GOM loop current area.

Yep, 80's in the south-central Gulf.
 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1086376662827257858


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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability

#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:22 pm

However,if the models on long range are right,the GOM would freeze. :cold:
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability

#16 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:17 pm

cycloneye wrote:However,if the models on long range are right,the GOM would freeze. :cold:


Yep, those 80s would be long gone if this were to verify:

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability

#17 Postby NDG » Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:43 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Interesting warmup on January in GOM loop current area.

Yep, 80's in the south-central Gulf.
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1086376662827257858


Is not that unusual to see 26C & 27C SSTs in the SE GOM, that's the Loop Current bringing up the very warm NW Caribbean waters. This has happened before this time of the year.

Edit: I'm sure the fairly warm winter the NW Caribbean is having so far has a lot to do with much warmer warmers being brought up to the southern GOM by the Loop Current.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability

#18 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 24, 2019 12:41 pm

Is this only noise or may be meat to it?

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability

#19 Postby NotSparta » Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:Is this only noise or may be meat to it?

https://i.imgur.com/XqZtIxi.png


Looks like a noisy signal

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However possibility of persistence w/ low pressure setting up north of MDR

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability

#20 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jan 24, 2019 3:06 pm

Are there any correlations between below average Southern Hemisphere hurricane seasons and active Atlantic hurricane seasons?
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