2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability

#21 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Jan 28, 2019 12:50 pm

The persistently +NAO has dipped slightly over the past week, but remains very close to neutral. Despite this, the MDR has warmed significantly and is now above average.

The sharp degree of warming relative to the modest relaxation of the +NAO may indicate the potential for a favourable SST configuration later in the year. Of course, a -NAO would produce faster warming.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#22 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:57 am

Interestingly, the latest NMME, the average of several dynamical models, is in line with the latest ECMWF, showing (cool?) neutral ENSO during the peak of the 2019 season.

As far as I know, the NMME and ECMWF tend to exhibit a cool bias in the Atlantic. The CFSv2 is much warmer than these models in the MDR by May 2019.

Taking into account all these factors, perhaps we may end up with a warm MDR and cool neutral ENSO in time for the peak of the 2019 season.

If this were to verify, given the active African monsoon, I would expect a well-above-average season—perhaps not 2017, but more active than 2018.

However, one must give some weight to the fact that the fourth year after a moderate/strong El Niño tends to be very active, especially with cool neutral ENSO.

1933, 1961, 1995, and 2005 are just a few examples. So if 2019 ends up as an above-average season, it is more likely than not to be hyperactive.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#23 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:25 pm

It’ll be interesting to see how things play out over the course of the next several moths as the spring barrier is still out ahead of us. TSR is forecasting 12/5/2 as of December so the way I see it the numbers can only go up.

On another note I believe regardless of the numbers that this could be yet another high-impact season. The steering pattern is just so different to the hurricane-drought years of 2006-2014/2015.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#24 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:21 pm

Based on ENSO only, my early analogs for the 2019 hurricane seasons are 2005 and 2015
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#25 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:31 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Based on ENSO only, my early analogs for the 2019 hurricane seasons are 2005 and 2015


What, 2005? :eek:
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#26 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:05 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Based on ENSO only, my early analogs for the 2019 hurricane seasons are 2005 and 2015


What, 2005? :eek:

I agree with the 2005 for none other than possible anomalies being above normal in the Atlantic like that year coming off a weak El Niño but I totally disagree with the 2015 analog due to there not being a rediculous El Niño coming but the Atlantic MDR being above normal does raise an eyebrow
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#27 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Feb 02, 2019 9:31 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Based on ENSO only, my early analogs for the 2019 hurricane seasons are 2005 and 2015


What, 2005? :eek:

I agree with the 2005 for none other than possible anomalies being above normal in the Atlantic like that year coming off a weak El Niño but I totally disagree with the 2015 analog due to there not being a ridiculous El Niño coming but the Atlantic MDR being above normal does raise an eyebrow

I don't think that Kingarabian was taking Atlantic SST anomalies into account, but only those in the equatorial Pacific (which are used to measure ENSO).
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#28 Postby NotSparta » Sun Feb 03, 2019 10:51 am

Kingarabian wrote:Based on ENSO only, my early analogs for the 2019 hurricane seasons are 2005 and 2015


Agree. 2015 (w/ less extreme anoms) is what we'd head towards if Niño coupling begins in spring & leads to a stronger Niño next yr.

2005 is if the Niño dies off and goes to your usual ENSO cool off post-Niño
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#29 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:37 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Based on ENSO only, my early analogs for the 2019 hurricane seasons are 2005 and 2015


What, 2005? :eek:

I agree with the 2005 for none other than possible anomalies being above normal in the Atlantic like that year coming off a weak El Niño but I totally disagree with the 2015 analog due to there not being a rediculous El Niño coming but the Atlantic MDR being above normal does raise an eyebrow


The 2015 El Nino kicked off in mid-March. So there's still sometime left. Plus based on the buoys, the subsurface pool is strengthening and expanding.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#30 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:38 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Based on ENSO only, my early analogs for the 2019 hurricane seasons are 2005 and 2015


Agree. 2015 (w/ less extreme anoms) is what we'd head towards if Niño coupling begins in spring & leads to a stronger Niño next yr.

2005 is if the Niño dies off and goes to your usual ENSO cool off post-Niño


Bingo. Agree with all of what you said.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#31 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Feb 03, 2019 6:32 pm

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1092144262282657792



We must wait and see whether the atmosphere favours continued subsurface warming and hence a back-to-back El Niño in 2019.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#32 Postby NotSparta » Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:10 pm

Shell Mound wrote:https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1092144262282657792
We must wait and see whether the atmosphere favours continued subsurface warming and hence a back-to-back El Niño in 2019.


Yeah. There is a lot of heat down there, but if the atmosphere reverses, then it's useless for another Niño
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#33 Postby NotSparta » Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:11 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
What, 2005? :eek:

I agree with the 2005 for none other than possible anomalies being above normal in the Atlantic like that year coming off a weak El Niño but I totally disagree with the 2015 analog due to there not being a rediculous El Niño coming but the Atlantic MDR being above normal does raise an eyebrow


The 2015 El Nino kicked off in mid-March. So there's still sometime left. Plus based on the buoys, the subsurface pool is strengthening and expanding.


Sure, but 2015 was also completely perfect for a very strong Niño. This yr probably won't be as favorable as 2015
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#34 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:26 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:I agree with the 2005 for none other than possible anomalies being above normal in the Atlantic like that year coming off a weak El Niño but I totally disagree with the 2015 analog due to there not being a rediculous El Niño coming but the Atlantic MDR being above normal does raise an eyebrow


The 2015 El Nino kicked off in mid-March. So there's still sometime left. Plus based on the buoys, the subsurface pool is strengthening and expanding.


Sure, but 2015 was also completely perfect for a very strong Niño. This yr probably won't be as favorable as 2015


Only major difference I see is the PDO. Much warmer then.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#35 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Feb 05, 2019 2:15 am

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#36 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:57 pm

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#37 Postby StruThiO » Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:47 pm

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#38 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:08 am

A tripole in a weak stage is in display but is Febuary and it may not last long however the forecast for a -NAO could extend it but let's wait and see how are things by the Summer.

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#39 Postby JPmia » Wed Feb 13, 2019 10:56 am

TheStormExpert wrote:It’ll be interesting to see how things play out over the course of the next several moths as the spring barrier is still out ahead of us. TSR is forecasting 12/5/2 as of December so the way I see it the numbers can only go up.

On another note I believe regardless of the numbers that this could be yet another high-impact season. The steering pattern is just so different to the hurricane-drought years of 2006-2014/2015.


What kind of steering patterns are you seeing that are different than those years you mention?
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#40 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 16, 2019 9:21 am

ECMWF Febuary update of MSLP for June,July and August.

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