2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[StruThiO]

intraseasonal forcing about as favorable as it possibly gets

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1174009016747474945




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1174010322795008001

[AnnularCane]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1173994751625969665

Hasn't it already been raging for a while now?

[NDG]

Chances of an above average Atlantic Hurricane season is growing by the minute before all is set and done with a busy 3-4 weeks ahead coming up, IMO.

[NotSparta]

Chances of an above average Atlantic Hurricane season is growing by the minute before all is set and done with a busy 3-4 weeks ahead coming up, IMO.

The below average season that was possible for some time is out of the question now, really depends how intense this burst is and if there's any long trackers out of this to see if it'll approach above avg

[NDG]

So here is something that may or may not throw a monkey wrench into the favorable conditions in the Caribbean for October. Despite Nino 3.4 currently sitting at -0.3C the CFS and Euro show the region rapidly warming to near +0.5C during the month of October. While this appears unlikely it could happen because the SOI is still el nino’ish negative. Does anybody have any maps to see if WWB’s are on the horizon to support Nino 3.4 warming like this?

What do you guys think? No big deal or something to watch as it could make October conditions in the Caribbean less favorable than we think? Maybe the CFS and Euro are messed up and just dead wrong??

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190916/e70e93ca9a5dfec62a69dc28f27e1168.gif

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190916/f1950393d53ccf213adbefa5e70dbe8a.png

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Even if their forecast was to be true, a weak El Nino by late next month will be too late, ineffective.
The Euro has been really struggling, only 1 member had it right from the previous forecast on the current cooling.

[StruThiO]

Incredible how fast things are changing

[gatorcane]

Busy Atlantic but the pattern for Cape Verde storms looks to point at recurve east of the CONUS. If something gets into the Western Caribbean, that could be a threat.

[StruThiO]

Another year, another super El Nino

[NDG]

No El Nino or El Nino, 2004 and 2005 were the last years I remember where both basins had activity at the same time. And I'm not simply implying season totals. I mean directly, where if the EPAC has present TCs, the Atlantic is usually quiet and vice versa.

In that case we don't have to go that far, 2017 during the middle of September had 2-3 systems over in the far east EPAC while the Atlantic also had 2-3 systems at the same time.

It' still seems like a small sample size to me. Reason is, when theres activity in one of these basins, one has more rising air while the other has residual sinking air. 2017 September featured 4 majors while the September EPAC systems were mostly Cat.1 or below.

I rest my case, in that during the peak of the hurricane season during non El Nino years and warm PDOs, etc, etc, we can see both basins busy at the same time.
This is a lot more common that most people think.

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1174041246958006272

[Kingarabian]

In that case we don't have to go that far, 2017 during the middle of September had 2-3 systems over in the far east EPAC while the Atlantic also had 2-3 systems at the same time.

It' still seems like a small sample size to me. Reason is, when theres activity in one of these basins, one has more rising air while the other has residual sinking air. 2017 September featured 4 majors while the September EPAC systems were mostly Cat.1 or below.

I rest my case, in that during the peak of the hurricane season during non El Nino years and warm PDOs, etc, etc, we can see both basins busy at the same time.
This is a lot more common that most people think.

https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1174041246958006272

Touche, this certainly goes against the notion that the EPAC and Atlantic basins can't be active together.

[zhukm29]

Welcome to September!

[AnnularCane]

Welcome to September!

https://i.ibb.co/rdDdjbT/plotsystemforecast-nt-pz-pa-2019-active-invests-fulltropics-merc-640x280-640-480.jpg

That map is looking a little crowded.

[Steve]

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

Here we are - mostly a hair above average except hurricanes. Clearly the CCKW that is rolling through is having a giant influence. Should be a couple more storms in the Atlantic. 10-12 days, there should be a trough in the SE US. After that lifts up, if summer fights back that's when I'd expect the next round of storms to come up and possibly threaten. That would be first/second week of October when the next pulse would happen if it doesn't just continue from the juice from the kelvin wave and corresponding favorable MJO. We'll see. I thought we'd cross 60 ACE last weekend, and we did. I said we'd cross 70 and possibly 75 by this weekend, and we probably will. TD 10 could get us to 80 based on how many more cycles humberto can stay a 3 (or a 2). Not sure how far we can get above that, but there should be at least a few more named storms.

[Steve]

To follow up on the post, if you look at NHC's prediction for 10, it will become Jerry by 8am tomorrow if it isn't already. They have it as a TS until sometime Friday as they show it as a Hurricane on the 8pm plot. It's still a hurricane by Sunday at 8pm, so that's 2 days of TS and 2 days of Cat 1/2 Hurricane ACE. Based on its position East of the Bahamas Sunday night, you have to figure it will have at least 2-3 more days of H status if it doesn't hit MH at some point.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... k#contents

Humberto looks to have another day as a major, then through Friday as a Hurricane and through Sunday as a Tropical Storm (and probably beyond). 80 looks reachable with these two.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... k#contents

[GCANE]

Looks like the Bermuda High will anchor in around end of the month.
This and the favorable CCKW conditions and we could see a significant Carib Runner or two then.
The one coming off Africa on Sunday could be the first one to watch.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the Bermuda High will anchor in around end of the month.
This and the favorable CCKW conditions and we could see a significant Carib Runner or two then.
The one coming off Africa on Sunday could be the first one to watch.

Yes maybe the one off Africa could be an issue for the CONUS if it makes it to the Western Caribbean but luckily the models are recurving all of these Cape Verde systems. Islands need to watch though. October is the month to watch for CONUS hits potentially something impacting Florida or NGOM/EGOM from the WCAR is possible.

[Steve]

70.7 ACE per CSU and 10 named storms. Jerry probably gets us to 80+/- with it now scheduled to be a hurricane at least from tomorrow morning through Monday night. It’s not quite to 30N at that point so you have to figure it should be a hurricane for the better part of a week
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

We are at 10 named storms which is a hair below average but a couple named storms ahead of normal for this date. Looks like we are heading into an average season at a minimum and possibly to the higher end of average range in most categories. For the perennial downcasters and cult of 2013, I’d suggest you all develop more patience in July and the first 3 weeks of August and wait to see what happens.

[tolakram]

The Storm after Jerry looks like a classic CV Hurricane and could build some significant ACE. It has yet to hit the water and the Euro has overforcast these multiple times so we'll have to see, but if so then I might believe we can end up above average.

[somethingfunny]

70.7 ACE per CSU and 10 named storms. Jerry probably gets us to 80+/- with it now scheduled to be a hurricane at least from tomorrow morning through Monday night. It’s not quite to 30N at that point so you have to figure it should be a hurricane for the better part of a week
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

We are at 10 named storms which is a hair below average but a couple named storms ahead of normal for this date. Looks like we are heading into an average season at a minimum and possibly to the higher end of average range in most categories. For the perennial downcasters and cult of 2013, I’d suggest you all develop more patience in July and the first 3 weeks of August and wait to see what happens.

My favorite downcasters are the ones who had the audacity to reappear immediately after Dorian and Gabrielle dissipated.