2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[Florida1118]

We're not likely to have had more than three hurricanes by September 20 by the look of things--that number is behind every hurricane season in the last quarter century save for 2002, 09, 13, and 15.

Well you definitely jinxed that

[StruThiO]

Looks like the destructive 2019 season is continuing with Imelda whom is trying her d*mn hardest to be retired.

[AxaltaRacing24]

70.7 ACE per CSU and 10 named storms. Jerry probably gets us to 80+/- with it now scheduled to be a hurricane at least from tomorrow morning through Monday night. It’s not quite to 30N at that point so you have to figure it should be a hurricane for the better part of a week
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents
We are at 10 named storms which is a hair below average but a couple named storms ahead of normal for this date. Looks like we are heading into an average season at a minimum and possibly to the higher end of average range in most categories. For the perennial downcasters and cult of 2013, I’d suggest you all develop more patience in July and the first 3 weeks of August and wait to see what happens.

My favorite downcasters are the ones who had the audacity to reappear immediately after Dorian and Gabrielle dissipated.

Then we had a strong cat 3 just days after people claimed Dorian was a fluke.

[Steve]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

MJO is forecasted pretty far out of the circle in Phases 8 and 1. Counter-clockwise rotation that far out the circle and down through Phase 2 would pretty much ensure continued tropical activity for the next 2 weeks at least. We know Jerry's going to be around for at least 5 days, then we have other stuff to look at. 2 seems to be a hyper phase for the Western Atlantic and has been a pretty reliable indicator of activity over the last couple of seasons.

Also I trust Colorado State 1000x more than Ryan Maue who annoys me when he gets arrogant. But his site shows the North Atlantic at 81.7425 ACE whereas through 11am Eastern time, CSU has it 74.5. Anyone know the discrepancy?

[tolakram]

Looks like the destructive 2019 season is continuing with Imelda whom is trying her d*mn hardest to be retired.

Imelda ran out of room. I am convinced, looking at the satellite just before and after landfall that this would have been another Hurricane given more time. We get so stuck on numbers and ACE that many times storms like Imelda are pushed aside.

[Hammy]

70.7 ACE per CSU and 10 named storms. Jerry probably gets us to 80+/- with it now scheduled to be a hurricane at least from tomorrow morning through Monday night. It’s not quite to 30N at that point so you have to figure it should be a hurricane for the better part of a week
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents
We are at 10 named storms which is a hair below average but a couple named storms ahead of normal for this date. Looks like we are heading into an average season at a minimum and possibly to the higher end of average range in most categories. For the perennial downcasters and cult of 2013, I’d suggest you all develop more patience in July and the first 3 weeks of August and wait to see what happens.

My favorite downcasters are the ones who had the audacity to reappear immediately after Dorian and Gabrielle dissipated.

Then we had a strong cat 3 just days after people claimed Dorian was a fluke.

Amazing, an entire post outlining multiple possibilities and that single line out of all of it what everybody latches onto.

We're not likely to have had more than three hurricanes by September 20 by the look of things--that number is behind every hurricane season in the last quarter century save for 2002, 09, 13, and 15.

Well you definitely jinxed that

This has got to be the fourth time I've made a declaration about a range (when or where a storm won't strengthen) only to be proven wrong by hours

[CyclonicFury]

8 named storms have formed since August 20, along with three hurricanes and two majors. Once again, climatology rules the Atlantic, and the models showing a dead peak in mid-late August were wrong. Despite the low start, the Atlantic is now above average in named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and ACE. We now have a hurricane in the MDR (Jerry), and the GFS and ECMWF models both suggest we could see another hurricane form in the MDR next week. The Atlantic active era seems to still be ongoing.

Hopefully season cancelers before September have learned their lesson. But I'm sure they'll be back at it next year...

[Hammy]

Is this graph believable anymore

[Hurricaneman]

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

Is this graph believable anymore

I think the graph they had before was more in line with reality, when they changed the graph they messed it up

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1174808930305871873

[underthwx]

Latest Houston Forecast Discussion mentions a surge of tropical moisture next week, that may mean, "bears watching"...my question is, after Imelda, would the SST, and the overall environment, support a potential system?

[NDG]

I think the Caribbean is a ticking time bomb, with Humberto cooling down the waters down between the US east coast and Bermuda the warmest SSTs in the Atlantic Basin will be concentrated over the Caribbean, I predict at least a major Hurricane in the western Caribbean during October. due to continuing below average shear and very warm waters, IMO.

[psyclone]

8 named storms have formed since August 20, along with three hurricanes and two majors. Once again, climatology rules the Atlantic, and the models showing a dead peak in mid-late August were wrong. Despite the low start, the Atlantic is now above average in named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and ACE. We now have a hurricane in the MDR (Jerry), and the GFS and ECMWF models both suggest we could see another hurricane form in the MDR next week. The Atlantic active era seems to still be ongoing.

Hopefully season cancelers before September have learned their lesson. But I'm sure they'll be back at it next year...

Great post. The surest way to cash a ticket on hurricane season is to lean heavily on climo. Absent a strong nino the basin will likely find a way to climb to near or somewhat above normal. The season cancel crowd will be back next year but let's face it..they're kinda fun and we wouldn't have it any other way (and sometimes they'll be correct!). I agree with NDG's post above...there is a latent bomb residing in the western Caribbean and there's probably a higher than normal chance that we get a late season monster down there. Someone in central America, Cuba, and or the eastern gulf is probably gonna pay rent. With well above normal temps expected over the eastern US into October...the very warm sea temps in the Gulf will likely be preserved somewhat later than usual this year...much like last year...which didn't end well. Stay tuned and be ready.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/toddkimberlain/status/1174808750022103048

[chaser1]

Thank heaven that the ongoing Atlantic cyclone machine is busy doing the "hamster wheel" and seemingly keeping everything turning east of the Islands. I'm gonna bet that by the time Climo checks in and decides it's time for the W. Caribbean to fire up, that it'll be just in time for the stacked High to suddenly displace the resident troughing off the S.E. CONUS Seaboard. Anyway, that's what Todd Chamberlain is thinking and that pattern change is likely due. Hopefully that won't result in another "Mitch event" for Central America though. Those SST's down there are both warm and deep.
October will be an interesting month in terms of seeing whether development continues to transition westward as would typically occur. I'd guess that something will try and develop over the Bahamas and move north or NNE'ward. Seems that would fit nicely within the scope of this year's track pattern. Sure hope it doesn't hang around long, the W. Bahamas can certainly use a break. Once we finally get to November though, I hardly expect Cuba or Florida to be threatened by much more then a big wet sloppy kiss given the typically sheared messes that even try to develop while moving northward that late in the season.

[StruThiO]

We are now above climo in every conceivable metric except for three quarters of a named storm day.

[bamajammer4eva]

Local weather guy for Dothan & Panama City posted this last night

[1900hurricane]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

MJO is forecasted pretty far out of the circle in Phases 8 and 1. Counter-clockwise rotation that far out the circle and down through Phase 2 would pretty much ensure continued tropical activity for the next 2 weeks at least. We know Jerry's going to be around for at least 5 days, then we have other stuff to look at. 2 seems to be a hyper phase for the Western Atlantic and has been a pretty reliable indicator of activity over the last couple of seasons.

Also I trust Colorado State 1000x more than Ryan Maue who annoys me when he gets arrogant. But his site shows the North Atlantic at 81.7425 ACE whereas through 11am Eastern time, CSU has it 74.5. Anyone know the discrepancy?

Not sure to be honest. Sometimes it appears Maue's numbers run a little hot, but they'll self correct after a period of time. Klotzbach's numbers are usually more consistent, but are always rounded to the nearest tenth. Maue and Klotzbach are showing 79.4125 and 79.3, respectively as I look at them right now, so for the moment at least they are in excellent agreement. My number for reference as of 00Z is 78.9225, but I also don't factor subtropical systems into my ACE calcs like the other two do, so I would expect my numbers to run a little below theirs. I'd probably lean towards Klotzbach in the NAtl just for consistency's sake.

Then again, Maue's numbers seem to do better in the WPac generally, but are both very close there right now too so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1176150916044447744

[1900hurricane]

Honestly, things to me look pretty average overall. +VPA is beginning to move away from Africa, so I might expect slightly below average activity over the next week or so, but that still leaves most of September. After that, guidance differs on what to do with the +VPA, with some camping it out near the IDL while others have dual maxes over the CPac and IO. The second would be a more favorable look for the NAtl, but it's worth noting that the +PDO may favor the CPac location. +VPA might not be make or break in September anyway, and other signals don't appear particularly strong to me either way. 1970-2018 average September ACE is about 48 for the NAtl by the way, which is about half the season's ACE on average. Currently, I'm thinking we might see a 40-50 ACE September, which is near to slightly below the mean, but also right near the median.

https://i.imgur.com/9oXxN3y.gif

https://i.imgur.com/GfZA307.png

Welp.

Month ACE PDI TS Days C1 Days C3 Days C4 Days C5 Days 7.5 Days
9 62.0925 59.709125 27.25 12.25 5.25 2.25 1.00 0.50

Still going too.