2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1139165032099586048

[BYG Jacob]

I'm still thinking normal to a bit less than normal.

https://i.imgur.com/gRjeY7R.png

I don't think we'll see anything until late August, which means season cancel posts will be rampant.

This chart got proven worthless in 2017

[tolakram]

I'm still thinking normal to a bit less than normal.

https://i.imgur.com/gRjeY7R.png

I don't think we'll see anything until late August, which means season cancel posts will be rampant.

This chart got proven worthless in 2017

What chart has not been proven worthless? My comment is less about the chart and more about the conditions. Maybe we see another Bret, Cindy, Don, Four, and Emily, but I'm not sure how 'active' that is. The question is how busy it gets once late August and September get here. That I really don't know, but I suspect near normal. We could also be looking at a 2004 like season, but as some have pointed out in the el nino thread conditions are not that similar to 2004 yet.

[Shell Mound]

Very informative discussions on the West African Monsoon (WAM) and SST anomalies over the Gulf of Guinea:

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1139238250856505345



 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1139244087750643713



 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1139248592076582913



 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1139210609571041280



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1139158358232109056

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1140219236054425600

[TheStormExpert]

The -NAO is a good thing if you love tracking MDR storms that recurve away from the U.S. May have to look further west for development that has a chance at affecting the U.S.

[Shell Mound]

:uarrow: The -NAO is a good thing if you love tracking MDR storms that recurve away from the U.S. May have to look further west for development that has a chance at affecting the U.S.

Not necessarily. The strength and position of the -NAO also matters. A weak (strong), west-based (east-based) -NAO would actually tend to favour (disfavour) landfalls on the Southeastern U.S., especially the eastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida, Georgia, and/or the Carolinas. A good case study is 2004, which centred on FL and the Carolinas. A strong -NAO, if west-based (as in 2007), would tend to favour "Caribbean cruisers" that affect the Windward Islands, Central America, and/or Mexico, staying well to the south of the mainland U.S, à la Dean and Felix. A strong, east-based -NAO, as in 2010, is the least favourable setup for landfalls in the Atlantic and Caribbean. During -NAOs (+NAOs), the subtropical ridge, the Bermuda-Azores High, tends to be suppressed farther south (north) than normal—to the southwest (northwest) if the -NAO (+NAO) is west-based, to the southeast (northeast) if the -NAO (+NAO) is east-based. A +NAO tends to favour landfalls farther north, that is, along the Eastern Seaboard, especially the Mid-Atlantic and New England, as in 1938. The NAO tends to fluctuate on a monthly and sometimes weekly basis, so one cannot extrapolate outcomes based on the current NAO.

[SFLcane]

Personally i don't see any overwhelming signals for a below average year or for that matter an above average year. Just about status quo... Perhaps some similarities between 2017-2019? We will find out in a few weeks

Animation:

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1141703497852837888

[SFLcane]

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season...

[SoupBone]

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season...

You know better than that.

I rather enjoy a quiet June and July, and you know August and September won't be.

[AnnularCane]

Isn't July one of the peak months for SAL?

(I'd say I was trying to nip any "season cancel" posts in the bud, but apparently it's too late. )

[CyclonicFury]

Isn't July one of the peak months for SAL?

(I'd say I was trying to nip any "season cancel" posts in the bud, but apparently it's too late. )

It is. SAL in June/July is not necessarily a sign of a quiet season.

[Hurricaneman]

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season...

If you mean a multitude of Ts or hurricanes then your right but if you mean season cancel then shame on you

[TheStormExpert]

You know it’s funny because SAL was just at record low levels a few weeks ago, what happened!? At this point we likely won’t see anything until at the very least late July.

[TheStormExpert]

Personally i don't see any overwhelming signals for a below average year or for that matter an above average year. Just about status quo... Perhaps some similarities between 2017-2019? We will find out in a few weeks

Animation:

http://i66.tinypic.com/zxle06.gif

SST’s look to be warmer in the MDR when compared to 2017 at this time. So a slightly above average season is not out of question in my opinion.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/climatesociety/status/1141770858442219522

[tolakram]

You know it’s funny because SAL was just at record low levels a few weeks ago, what happened!? At this point we likely won’t see anything until at the very least late July.

Do you remember when I bemoaned all the season cancel posts? How about ... what happened is forecasts more than a few weeks out are notoriously bad. Forecasts made on twitter are notoriously worse. I'm not sure I'll ever understand the expectations of an active June and July. It just doesn't happen that often and has no bearing on the remaining season.

[SFLcane]

Folks it was a joke based on Bens tweet...We all know june and july don't offer much and sometimes even the first week of August.

[cycloneye]

We are one month after Subtropical Storm Andrea formed briefly on May 20 and after that it has been dry air,Saharan air Layer outbreaks,strong shear that has dominated and is normal to have those in June and July. 2005 was abnormal in these 2 months as it reached the G storm by the end of July.