2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[SFLcane]

Crown weather...oh Florida

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1131191026071351297

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1131647417194045440

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1131888826127769600

[CyclonicFury]

I'm starting to get concerned that this season could be much more active than originally anticipated. The Atlantic MDR is much warmer at this time than last year, and the AMO pattern as a whole is much more positive. The recent prolonged -NAO has nearly reversed the Atlantic SST setup In addition, the subsurface of the Pacific is still relatively cool - the recent WWB has done little to warm the subsurface so far.

The forecast of El Nino persisting through the season is much more uncertain now. At least three models - the CFS, NASA and JAMSTEC - show ENSO cooling to at least warm neutral levels by ASO. This reflects the relatively cool subsurface. We're also likely going to see a trade burst in the Pacific in early-mid June, which could cool the subsurface further.

Finally, there has been persistent upward motion over Africa throughout most of 2019 - indicating an African standing wave. In addition, precipitable water anomalies in the Sahel region of Africa have been well above average so far in 2019. This likely indicates the onset of a strong West African Monsoon, which would result in stronger tropical waves and slowed trade winds in the eastern tropical Atlantic.

NOAA predicted a near average season despite expecting El Nino to persist. If it doesn't, this season will likely be above average.

[TheStormExpert]

Wouldn’t the wetter than average Sahel result in less or less intense SAL outbreaks?

Also, a -NAO (if it were to persist all season) would mean more recurving storms and likely would lessen the U.S. threat from storms and hurricanes a good bit.

[NotSparta]

I'm starting to get concerned that this season could be much more active than originally anticipated. The Atlantic MDR is much warmer at this time than last year, and the AMO pattern as a whole is much more positive. The recent prolonged -NAO has nearly reversed the Atlantic SST setup In addition, the subsurface of the Pacific is still relatively cool - the recent WWB has done little to warm the subsurface so far.

The forecast of El Nino persisting through the season is much more uncertain now. At least three models - the CFS, NASA and JAMSTEC - show ENSO cooling to at least warm neutral levels by ASO. This reflects the relatively cool subsurface. We're also likely going to see a trade burst in the Pacific in early-mid June, which could cool the subsurface further.

Finally, there has been persistent upward motion over Africa throughout most of 2019 - indicating an African standing wave. In addition, precipitable water anomalies in the Sahel region of Africa have been well above average so far in 2019. This likely indicates the onset of a strong West African Monsoon, which would result in stronger tropical waves and slowed trade winds in the eastern tropical Atlantic.

NOAA predicted a near average season despite expecting El Nino to persist. If it doesn't, this season will likely be above average.

The near normal forecast w/ El Niño seems pretty on brand for the active era (which NOAA said is expected to continue this yr, w/ all the factors from it going into the season). Unfortunately it's starting to look like the Niño isn't staying either. It may stunt the early season, but after that...

[chaser1]

I'm starting to get concerned that this season could be much more active than originally anticipated. The Atlantic MDR is much warmer at this time than last year, and the AMO pattern as a whole is much more positive. The recent prolonged -NAO has nearly reversed the Atlantic SST setup In addition, the subsurface of the Pacific is still relatively cool - the recent WWB has done little to warm the subsurface so far.

The forecast of El Nino persisting through the season is much more uncertain now. At least three models - the CFS, NASA and JAMSTEC - show ENSO cooling to at least warm neutral levels by ASO. This reflects the relatively cool subsurface. We're also likely going to see a trade burst in the Pacific in early-mid June, which could cool the subsurface further.

Finally, there has been persistent upward motion over Africa throughout most of 2019 - indicating an African standing wave. In addition, precipitable water anomalies in the Sahel region of Africa have been well above average so far in 2019. This likely indicates the onset of a strong West African Monsoon, which would result in stronger tropical waves and slowed trade winds in the eastern tropical Atlantic.

NOAA predicted a near average season despite expecting El Nino to persist. If it doesn't, this season will likely be above average.

The near normal forecast w/ El Niño seems pretty on brand for the active era (which NOAA said is expected to continue this yr, w/ all the factors from it going into the season). Unfortunately it's starting to look like the Niño isn't staying either. It may stunt the early season, but after that...

Meanwhile, 200-850mb westerly wind shear continues to rip through the Caribbean eastward, all the way to Africa like a wild banshee on crack. Two week forecast suggests a continued hostile tropical Atlantic for the foreseeable future. How hostile will conditions be by the end of July and into August is hard to say. All I know is that Andrea didnt make too much of a closing argument to suggest any dramatic uptick in activity. I think at minimum, we'll see a lag in activity even for a few weeks following warm ENSO SST's begin cooling closer to normal.

[NotSparta]

I'm starting to get concerned that this season could be much more active than originally anticipated. The Atlantic MDR is much warmer at this time than last year, and the AMO pattern as a whole is much more positive. The recent prolonged -NAO has nearly reversed the Atlantic SST setup In addition, the subsurface of the Pacific is still relatively cool - the recent WWB has done little to warm the subsurface so far.

The forecast of El Nino persisting through the season is much more uncertain now. At least three models - the CFS, NASA and JAMSTEC - show ENSO cooling to at least warm neutral levels by ASO. This reflects the relatively cool subsurface. We're also likely going to see a trade burst in the Pacific in early-mid June, which could cool the subsurface further.

Finally, there has been persistent upward motion over Africa throughout most of 2019 - indicating an African standing wave. In addition, precipitable water anomalies in the Sahel region of Africa have been well above average so far in 2019. This likely indicates the onset of a strong West African Monsoon, which would result in stronger tropical waves and slowed trade winds in the eastern tropical Atlantic.

NOAA predicted a near average season despite expecting El Nino to persist. If it doesn't, this season will likely be above average.

The near normal forecast w/ El Niño seems pretty on brand for the active era (which NOAA said is expected to continue this yr, w/ all the factors from it going into the season). Unfortunately it's starting to look like the Niño isn't staying either. It may stunt the early season, but after that...

Meanwhile, 200-850mb westerly wind shear continues to rip through the Caribbean eastward, all the way to Africa like a wild banshee on crack. Two week forecast suggests a continued hostile tropical Atlantic for the foreseeable future. How hostile will conditions be by the end of July and into August is hard to say. All I know is that Andrea didnt make too much of a closing argument to suggest any dramatic uptick in activity. I think at minimum, we'll see a lag in activity even for a few weeks following warm ENSO SST's begin cooling closer to normal.

Yes, that's not unusual for El Niño, and the tropical Atlantic is typically hostile in May. Since it's still around, the first part of the season looks to be suppressed by El Niño.

Also, of course Andrea didn't suggest an uptick in activity - it was a preseason storm. Even early season storms, for the most part, don't suggest upticks in activity.

[SFLcane]

This!

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1132293829271392257

[StruThiO]

This!

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1132293829271392257

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1132294553967431682

[SFLcane]

On Twitter...

CFAN's forecast is for a moderate El Nino Modoki during the main part of the hurricane season. Our hurricane forecast will be issued publicly on Jun 3, but we are predicting an active season.

[canes92]

Crown weather...oh Florida

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1131191026071351297

Yikes. Florida doesn't need another hurricane. After over a decade drought, we've gotten hit hard the last 2 years with Irma and Michael. Hopefully this dry weather isn't a foreshadow.

[Hurricaneman]

Crown weather...oh Florida

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1131191026071351297

Yikes. Florida doesn't need another hurricane. After over a decade drought, we've gotten hit hard the last 2 years with Irma and Michael. Hopefully this dry weather isn't a foreshadow.

3 if you count Matthew but it looks like maybe we have entered the 30s through 50s hurricane landfall pattern which means it may go on for a few more years still but as always it could change back to a lower landfall pattern we had for a decade from 2006 to 2015 so we’ll see

[SFLcane]

Very favorable look to the Atlantic Basin new CFS wind shear forecast.

[TheStormExpert]

On Twitter...

CFAN's forecast is for a moderate El Nino Modoki during the main part of the hurricane season. Our hurricane forecast will be issued publicly on Jun 3, but we are predicting an active season.

That forecast was back from late-March, is the June 3rd update a revised one?

[SFLcane]

On Twitter...

CFAN's forecast is for a moderate El Nino Modoki during the main part of the hurricane season. Our hurricane forecast will be issued publicly on Jun 3, but we are predicting an active season.

That forecast was back from late-March, is the June 3rd update a revised one?

That is the new one it was released about a week or two ago.

[AutoPenalti]

Very favorable look to the Atlantic Basin new CFS wind shear forecast.

http://i67.tinypic.com/96eyq0.jpg

Wow, that looks like La Niña.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1132753096562679809

[TheStormExpert]

Not sure if this a bad indicator.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1132957944696463361

[Kingarabian]

Big MJO pulses and strong CCKWs are available every season. Depends on local factors such as shear, RH values, and SSTs whether something develops or not.