tolakram wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:El Niño force is back, which means we are back to below average to average season.
I see your wink and spam, but just to be clear. Nino weeklies are interesting but do not tell the story. It's still a very west based el nino.
Personally I still think we have an average season, but only time will tell.
In my opinion, based on what I’ve seen on the state of the Atlantic basin as a whole, the ingredients are there for an active season.
As I stated earlier with below normal wind shear across the MDR to an unusually active WAM with below average SAL and slower trades and a steady increase in SST’s. It’s all but possible we my have an active season on our hands. I’d run around the same numbers as 2017 with a lower ACE.