2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[NotSparta]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1151067007342776320

Will be interesting to see how this moves around, will have big implications for the season

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1151203088092618752

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1151223090749140992

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1151215167146885120

[CyclonicFury]

This season is going to be fascinating to watch evolve because there is still a lot of uncertainty with regards to overall activity, and it's mid-July.

[SFLcane]

That’s a lot of green for July...

[gatorcane]

Certainly is a lot of green there. The issue now is the SAL which looks to be typical out there for this time of year. But if that shear is still low and the SAL subsides as it typically does in August watch out.

[AnnularCane]

I don't think I remember seeing that much green before.

[Kingarabian]

Certainly is a lot of green there. The issue now is the SAL which looks to be typical out there for this time of year. But if that shear is still low and the SAL subsides as it typically does in August watch out.

This and probably atmospheric sinking motion.

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1151745983895748608




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1151742451222294528

[Hurricaneman]

I would look out for the Atlantic to start waking up Between the last days of the month to the first week of August as a CCKW moves through in combination with a favorable MJO

[CyclonicFury]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1151883828480401409




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1151937097688858630

[cycloneye]

Watch for possible activity on the first week of August.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1152151987355623424

[TheStormExpert]

I would look out for the Atlantic to start waking up Between the last days of the month to the first week of August as a CCKW moves through in combination with a favorable MJO

I wouldn't except an uptick or the so-called "lid" to come off until AT LEAST the first week or two of August, the peak period is August 20th-October 20th so it may be right on par this year! Expect another big SAL Outbreak around the 23rd or 24th of July.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1152183730703937537

[TheStormExpert]

Watch for possible activity on the first week of August.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1152151987355623424

It's the CFS vs. all other Climate Models when it comes to whether the Atlantic is favorable for peak season. Who will win? Time will tell!

[cycloneye]

Bleak picture from JB.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1152192047790600192

[TheStormExpert]

With SAL outbreaks still ongoing this is not surprising. FWIW shear has also increased some throughout the basin from several days ago when the posters showed it being shockingly low.





Also mid-level dry air might be a big issue according to this graphic below.

[SFLcane]

Bleak picture from JB.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1152192047790600192

Oh please... this is based on a 300hr plus model run through the first week of Aug. Real season runs through Aug20-Oct20

[NotSparta]

Watch for possible activity on the first week of August.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1152151987355623424

It's the CFS vs. all other Climate Models when it comes to whether the Atlantic is favorable for peak season. Who will win? Time will tell!

Based on climate model biases CFS may score a coup w/ this season but is probably too strong w/ its signal

[NDG]

Just like just about every season the Atlantic is going to wake up little by little without much notice as we head into August. But if the JMA is correct it may take a little longer and be a late blooming season.
But with the strong CCKW forecasted to come across into the Atlantic over the next few days I would not be surprised if a CV wave develops sometime in early or the middle of August before the season really ramps up later on.

According to this shear overall is around average to slightly below average across the Atlantic Basin, the big problem is the dry atmosphere as we know, but forecasted to change.