2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[1900hurricane]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1163800852529864705

The timing is a little concerning but the -VP200 over Africa/IO is actually the best for the Atlantic.

Yes, this is the best look for long-track Cape Verde hurricanes at least. Caribbean systems would be over the NAtl proper, but the upwards motion is most important in the genesis region of disturbances, which for Cape Verde hurricanes is Africa. Background vertical motion from things such as Madden-Julian or ENSO state is different than say TUTT subsidence and actually doesn't have much impact on a developed system, but it can absolutely eliminate a disturbance before it can get going.

This holds true for the WPac, which is especially notable in El Nino years. If the best upwards motion is over the CPac, coherent disturbances cross the IDL and become powerful and long lived typhoons. Below is a few images from the 1997 JTWC report. Remind you of anything?

[CyclonicFury]

2019 will NOT be joining the elusive club of years without an Atlantic TC in August.

[DioBrando]

2019 will NOT be joining the elusive club of years without an Atlantic TC in August.

Chantal just got named
Dreams have been crushed

"I walk this empty street
On the boulevard of broken dreams"

[Hammy]

I was looking at Papin's satellite animations for August 1999 and it actually looks pretty similar to this year, with the waves coming off well north of normal, up until the 18th or so (though any change this year will obviously be delayed) and both the East and West Pacific appeared quite a bit below normal, with the west having a lot of weaker and higher-latitude systems, and east having only 9/6/2. Does anybody know if there were any similarities to the atmosphere as this year as far as MJO/sinking motion/SSTs as I'm not sure where to look for most of the data

[chaser1]

The magic switch has been flipped (though, Chantal will likely track closer to calving ice then it will to the MDR). This ain't your Grandfather's Hurricane Season LOL! Anyone want to bet against the likelihood that Dorian will likely form north of 25N latitude as well?

[Kingarabian]

2019 will NOT be joining the elusive club of years without an Atlantic TC in August.

Would've been a cool sight to see though. Oh well.

[chaser1]

I'm not suggesting that a good deal of quality tropical systems are about to take the stage but I'm seeing an increased moisture envelope pushing off Africa and a bit less latitude suppressed tropical waves reaching the W. Carib. I think we'll begin seeing a marked increase of model "pings" for tropical development beginning today/new couple days. That doesn't suggest a marked increase in development is about to occur but it might suggest that a "relative" increase may begin during the next week or two. That's certainly no shocker given the time of year and still only indicative of an up-tick to still somewhat anemic season

[storminabox]

I'm not suggesting that a good deal of quality tropical systems are about to take the stage but I'm seeing an increased moisture envelope pushing off Africa and a bit less latitude suppressed tropical waves reaching the W. Carib. I think we'll begin seeing a marked increase of model "pings" for tropical development beginning today/new couple days. That doesn't suggest a marked increase in development is about to occur but it might suggest that a "relative" increase may begin during the next week or two. That's certainly no shocker given the time of year and still only indicative of an up-tick to still somewhat anemic season

Atleast it’s something

[NotSparta]

Shear has really come down:

[Hurricaneman]

It seems now we have waves that are maintaining convection which indicates the sinking motion is leaving and by early next week into October it’s full steam ahead as it looks to me

[NDG]

Shear has really come down:

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6d79c26f84e9a798e8a0495a99157fec32d0b635dde634cfd9dee3dfe840e0f4.gif

Yep, it can't get any lower than this across the western MDR and most of the Caribbean. Is a bone dry very low windshear environment

[SFLcane]

Nothing is going on I guess when we are taking about rainbows at the nhc .

 https://twitter.com/NWSNHC/status/1164515344234377216

[SoupBone]

Shear has really come down:

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6d79c26f84e9a798e8a0495a99157fec32d0b635dde634cfd9dee3dfe840e0f4.gif

Yep, it can't get any lower than this across the western MDR and most of the Caribbean. Is a bone dry very low windshear environment

https://i.imgur.com/9uRGhJC.gif
https://i.imgur.com/KcsvaH8.png

Yep, right now SAL is still potent and has made a huge push south again in the last few days. Just when it looks like he's done for the season he roars right back. I'm curious what's the longest that SAL has been a big factor in seasons. This season seems like he's not going away, when he typically peaks in late July. Yet, here we are.

[SoupBone]

This to me is amazing for late August. Anyone else remember SAL hanging around this long, and still this potent?

[Hammy]

CFS showing relatively little activity overall for the season now for the last three runs and no longer trending in any direction, seems like the updated climate forecast is now showing up in the model runs. Modest activity during September, nothing to speak of before September 10 or so, and really nothing after the first week of October.

[NotSparta]

This to me is amazing for late August. Anyone else remember SAL hanging around this long, and still this potent?

https://i.imgur.com/1Hm6nkq.jpg

Might be the new product that makes it look more intense

Older one, better for comparisons to previous seasons

[SoupBone]

This to me is amazing for late August. Anyone else remember SAL hanging around this long, and still this potent?

https://i.imgur.com/1Hm6nkq.jpg

Might be the new product that makes it look more intense

Older one, better for comparisons to previous seasons

https://i.imgur.com/qlPu47R.jpg

That's strange because the current legend shows those really light areas as pretty potent dust. Pretty stark differences.

[cycloneye]

More records made from 2019.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1164576532276187137

[psyclone]

Interesting to note that a couple of those quiet starts referenced by Dr Phil ended generating plenty of activity...1988's Gilbert and 2002 with Isidore among others. This season could end up a snooze fest...or not. The coin is still in the air even though the slow season crowd is decisively ahead at this point..

[gatorcane]

Surprised nobody has mentioned how there is now little shear over the entire Caribbean. Should just be a matter of time before things really get going. That area of the SW Atlantic is another area where we could see some activity.

Got to think we will see some significant Caribbean system(s) this year with no El Niño. My eyes are looking to the south here in Florida this year and not so much to the east especially with the troughiness pattern: