2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[Emmett_Brown]

As much as I like to track storms, I always admire a good anomaly! I am definitely rooting for no storms in August to complete our perfect score. If you're going to have a drought, you might as well do it right!

[toad strangler]

:uarrow: Look at all of the sinking motion it also forecasts for the central & EPAC, I don't know about that.

SAL says, "I'm supposed to peak in late July? Not this year!"

Oy vey that is gangster. You can bet on AT LEAST another two weeks of zippo.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Look at all of the sinking motion it also forecasts for the central & EPAC, I don't know about that.

I think the sinking motion it shows in CPAC/EPAC is south of the equator where cold water anomalies have been increasing.

[StruThiO]

Yeah, the 15s-15n bounds is pretty large. Is there say a 10n-20n product?

[DioBrando]

Tell me tell me tell me, what is up with the atmosphere making it so hostile?
Even the most optimistic of posters have turned bearish.
I'm highly skeptical of the CCKW.

[AutoPenalti]

Tell me tell me tell me, what is up with the atmosphere making it so hostile?
Even the most optimistic of posters have turned bearish.
I'm highly skeptical of the CCKW.

Again, nothing is wrong with the atmosphere. We are still in a phase where large scale conditions aren’t favorable. They won’t be favorable for a while.

Patience, we will have our fishes soon.

[DioBrando]

Tell me tell me tell me, what is up with the atmosphere making it so hostile?
Even the most optimistic of posters have turned bearish.
I'm highly skeptical of the CCKW.

Again, nothing is wrong with the atmosphere. We are still in a phase where large scale conditions aren’t favorable. They won’t be favorable for a while.

Patience, we will have our fishes soon.

do you have any examples?

[psyclone]

This basin is lazin'
on the night before the 8-20 bell ding
all we hear is crickets sing
While it's torture for most
wxman can boast
bearish from go, it's nearly heaven
more slow season bike rides, for wxman 57!
Happy season cancel awareness day everyone!

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/canedancerlix/status/1163510969995321345

[AutoPenalti]

Tell me tell me tell me, what is up with the atmosphere making it so hostile?
Even the most optimistic of posters have turned bearish.
I'm highly skeptical of the CCKW.

Again, nothing is wrong with the atmosphere. We are still in a phase where large scale conditions aren’t favorable. They won’t be favorable for a while.

Patience, we will have our fishes soon.

do you have any examples?

Sure, look at the TPW and how retrograded it is. The WAM is further north which means any wave that tries to develop will be filtered out by the SAL, furthermore, we are not in a favorable MJO phase for rising air, any thunderstorm activity will most likely be scattered and sheared, lastly, I believe there is some mid-level dry air surrounding much of the MDR and eastern Caribbean. All this will last for quite a while, but it will only be a matter of time when we get our third storm of the season.

[CyclonicFury]

This is the second year in a row August has been very quiet, though last year we did have Debby and Ernesto form in the subtropics. The ECMWF is showing a strong wave with a closed circulation at the end of the run exiting Africa, which is how it usually depicts the start of a more active period.

[gatorcane]

That is some wave over Africa tonight, perhaps the wave train is finally going to get going in the near future?

[dexterlabio]

I thought the enhanced phase of the MJO/CCKW already reached the Atlantic? It seems pretty dry in the Pacific right now with the suppressed phase and if it's also the same case in the Western Hemisphere then where on Earth is the MJO?

[wxman57]

That is some wave over Africa tonight, perhaps the wave train is finally going to get going in the near future?

https://i.postimg.cc/mZdgjCVW/goes16-ir-eatl-201908192145.jpg

The 18Z GFS and 12Z Euro both have it dissipating as it reaches the Atlantic. Euro sees something strong moving offshore in 10 days, though. The air in the deep tropics remains quite stable. Plenty of dry, sinking air.

[cycloneye]

Here we go.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1163655758266982405

[Hurricaneman]

Here we go.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1163655758266982405

That wave coming off of Africa in the Euro 10 day may be one or even the one ahead of it to watch as the sinking air dissipates

[chaser1]

I thought the enhanced phase of the MJO/CCKW already reached the Atlantic? It seems pretty dry in the Pacific right now with the suppressed phase and if it's also the same case in the Western Hemisphere then where on Earth is the MJO?

Thank you, LOL !

[Stormi]

Hammy - you've suggested that most models show at least one long-tracking system. May I ask where they place it? Just curious I'm still a bit new to this & am trying to get a handle on utilizing all of these models

[Hammy]

Hammy - you've suggested that most models show at least one long-tracking system. May I ask where they place it? Just curious I'm still a bit new to this & am trying to get a handle on utilizing all of these models

The most frequent track over the last several days worth of runs has been turning north between 40 and 55 longitude and staying largely out to sea, though some runs (and we're talking 3+ weeks out here) bringing it close to New England or maritime Canada. New run should be coming out in a few hours.

Here we go.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1163655758266982405

Any word on how many storms the Euro is forecasting during that time?

[Stormi]

My best guess will for now will be between 4-6. I'm still very new to this, but doing lots of research as I just switched coastlines