2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#101 Postby NotSparta » Sun Apr 21, 2019 6:17 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:
Hawaiian Islands are in the new Hurricane Alley, seems like it during the past few years :eek:


Becoming the new norm...

We've had so many Hawaii threats in the past 5 years, but shear has come to the rescue for nearly all of them.


Yeah, good thing that climo has come to the rescue still even w/ the Hawaii threats. Definitely more of something to watch these days w/ new +PDO regime
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#102 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Apr 24, 2019 12:45 pm

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#103 Postby SFLcane » Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:24 pm

Interesting...

For some reason i always have a difficult time adding tweets.

An impressive reduction in the new UKMET seasonal guidance with respect to #ElNino. New data seems to be signaling a quicker reduction in above normal sea surface temperatures vs. it's old March run for June-August.

https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/1121097427367473154?s=20
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#105 Postby SFLcane » Mon Apr 29, 2019 11:26 am

The tweet button does not work...



As the MJO moves into the Pacific Ocean during May, it will 'constructively interfere' with El Niño.

It will also be worth watching to see if the tropics near the U.S. have any early season action later in the month

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1122870652988301312?s=20
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#106 Postby NotSparta » Mon Apr 29, 2019 11:39 am

SFLcane wrote:The tweet button does not work...



As the MJO moves into the Pacific Ocean during May, it will 'constructively interfere' with El Niño.

It will also be worth watching to see if the tropics near the U.S. have any early season action later in the month

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1122870652988301312?s=20


You need to remove everything after the ? (Including it as well), so you'd get

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/stat ... 2988301312

The Tweet button doesn't seem to like the last part
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#107 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Apr 29, 2019 9:23 pm

Mark sudduth Hurricane update/el nino

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOjidlJPLac
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#108 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 01, 2019 8:06 am

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#109 Postby SoupBone » Wed May 01, 2019 10:32 am

[quote="cycloneye"][/quote]

I forget, what is the significance and impact of a wetter East Coast area?
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#110 Postby SFLcane » Wed May 01, 2019 12:53 pm



This could indicate a bunch of sub tropical junk... :roll:
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#111 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed May 01, 2019 1:42 pm

SFLcane wrote:


This could indicate a bunch of sub tropical junk... :roll:


Can’t assume all subtropical systems are junk just look at how Joaquin in 2015 or Ophelia in 2017 heck even Diana in 1984 or Carol in 1954 or Bob in 1991 or Alicia in 1983

So just because it starts from subtropical means doesn’t always mean junk
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#112 Postby SFLcane » Wed May 01, 2019 2:57 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
SFLcane wrote:


This could indicate a bunch of sub tropical junk... :roll:


Can’t assume all subtropical systems are junk just look at how Joaquin in 2015 or Ophelia in 2017 heck even Diana in 1984 or Carol in 1954 or Bob in 1991 or Alicia in 1983

So just because it starts from subtropical means doesn’t always mean junk


You know what i mean...north of 25-29n usually has a high chance of recurving into open atl which is a good thing i might add. We shall see but waters are definitely warmer were it counts this season.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#113 Postby OuterBanker » Wed May 01, 2019 3:31 pm

SoupBone wrote:
cycloneye wrote:


I forget, what is the significance and impact of a wetter East Coast area?


Scenario 1 The cautious optimist.
It indicates a dip in the jet forming a east coast semi-permanent trough in which quite a few lows form keeping the east coast damp. Savings on sun screen though.

Scenario 2 The optimistic pessimist.
It indicates tropical or sub-tropical activity with east coast riders because of a semi-permanent trough.

Scenario 3 The doomsday wish-caster.
It indicates that the east coast has been saturated because of the semi-permanent trough and the warm sub-tropical waters and does not include any tropical or sub-tropical activity. Plus, the semi-permanent trough would allow extraordinary vulnerability to any tropical system approaching the east coast because it would provide an ally right up the east coast.

By the way: It is nothing but and educated guess in reality.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#114 Postby SFLcane » Thu May 02, 2019 11:10 am

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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#115 Postby Kazmit » Thu May 02, 2019 2:20 pm

OuterBanker wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
cycloneye wrote:


I forget, what is the significance and impact of a wetter East Coast area?


Scenario 1 The cautious optimist.
It indicates a dip in the jet forming a east coast semi-permanent trough in which quite a few lows form keeping the east coast damp. Savings on sun screen though.

Scenario 2 The optimistic pessimist.
It indicates tropical or sub-tropical activity with east coast riders because of a semi-permanent trough.

Scenario 3 The doomsday wish-caster.
It indicates that the east coast has been saturated because of the semi-permanent trough and the warm sub-tropical waters and does not include any tropical or sub-tropical activity. Plus, the semi-permanent trough would allow extraordinary vulnerability to any tropical system approaching the east coast because it would provide an ally right up the east coast.

By the way: It is nothing but and educated guess in reality.

By east coast riders do you only mean storms that plough right through the east coast while recurving like Irene and Floyd or also storms like Bill that stay out to sea?
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#116 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu May 02, 2019 5:33 pm

Although El Nino is looking likely to be in place for at least the first part of the upcoming season, I'm not expecting the Atlantic to be "shut down" by any means. El Nino may usually increase the wind shear in the western MDR and the Caribbean Sea, but it doesn't have as much of an effect on the rest of the basin.

FACTORS ENHANCING DEVELOPMENT
1. Expected Strong West African Monsoon - This is the #1 reason why I'm not expecting a very quiet year (i.e., a year with ACE <50). If the MDR warms more relative to average during the early part of the season, I wouldn't be too surprised if we see a tropical wave or two develop over the far eastern Atlantic, strengthen quickly, and either recurve or fall apart east of the Lesser Antilles. Sahel precipitable water has been well above average so far, as noted in the tweet above. This likely is a signal for a strong African Monsoon, which would not only enhance the "wave train" but also possibly result in some additional MDR warming by the peak of the season.

2. A likely favorable subtropics - The warm subtropics in recent years have made this region more favorable for tropical and subtropical development. Last year we saw a record number of subtropical storms. While many dismiss these systems as "junk storms" or "boring" they are fascinating to look at, and in some cases, they transition into bonafide hurricanes. Look at Joaquin in 2015, an El Nino year - it developed from an upper-level low and nearly reached Category 5 strength.

3. A warmer MDR than last year - It's looking likely, based on current MDR SSTAs and the model guidance, that the Atlantic Main Development Region will likely be warmer than normal at peak, which is contrast from last season when it was cooler than normal. If this is true, this would enhance the convective potential in the region, and we would likely see the MDR get going a little earlier than last season when it was dead, aside from Beryl, until the very end of August.

Look back at 2015. This El Nino is highly unlikely to even come close to the strength of that event, and that season was only slightly below average. It wouldn't surprise me to reach an ACE total of 80-90 if a moderate El Nino is present.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#117 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 04, 2019 3:10 pm

Joe Bastardi's updated his hurricane season assessment today. He says that the Atlantic SST configuration does not support high ACE(2005/2017 had cool north-ATL/warm MDR, this year is opposite so far) but it could still be a memorable year as he has some high risk areas, primarily the eastern seaboard.
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#118 Postby DioBrando » Sat May 04, 2019 4:18 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Joe Bastardi's updated his hurricane season assessment today. He says that the Atlantic SST configuration does not support high ACE(2005/2017 had cool north-ATL/warm MDR, this year is opposite so far) but it could still be a memorable year as he has some high risk areas, primarily the eastern seaboard.

year wise, what is the ACE looking like to be similar to?
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#119 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat May 04, 2019 5:08 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Joe Bastardi's updated his hurricane season assessment today. He says that the Atlantic SST configuration does not support high ACE(2005/2017 had cool north-ATL/warm MDR, this year is opposite so far) but it could still be a memorable year as he has some high risk areas, primarily the eastern seaboard.

Actually fits my 1991 analog to a T as the ocean temps are pretty much similar unlike 2002 which I have dropped as an analog
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Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#120 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 04, 2019 5:54 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Joe Bastardi's updated his hurricane season assessment today. He says that the Atlantic SST configuration does not support high ACE(2005/2017 had cool north-ATL/warm MDR, this year is opposite so far) but it could still be a memorable year as he has some high risk areas, primarily the eastern seaboard.

Actually fits my 1991 analog to a T as the ocean temps are pretty much similar unlike 2002 which I have dropped as an analog


Interestingly he specifically highlighted that there may be a risk similar to Belle 1976 and Bob 1991
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