2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
DioBrando
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 276
Age: 22
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:45 pm
Location: napoli, italia

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#121 Postby DioBrando » Sat May 04, 2019 7:21 pm

who reckons the storms will form closer to land in 2019
1 likes   
このジョルノジョバァナには夢がある

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 416
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#122 Postby StruThiO » Sat May 04, 2019 9:18 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5932
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#123 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun May 05, 2019 6:06 am

:uarrow: There's the -NAO that fortunately for Florida never comes through during the winter months!

If it were to persist throughout the hurricane I can't see anything affecting the U.S. from the east, only the Western Caribbean.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3644
Age: 41
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#124 Postby SFLcane » Mon May 06, 2019 8:33 am

See you in 2020 if the ECMWF is right lol...

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1125392269354336256


1 likes   

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1107
Age: 17
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#125 Postby NotSparta » Mon May 06, 2019 10:09 am

SFLcane wrote:See you in 2020 if the ECMWF is right lol...

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1125392269354336256


It wasn't quite right in 2018
5 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 838
Age: 20
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#126 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon May 06, 2019 10:41 am

SFLcane wrote:See you in 2020 if the ECMWF is right lol...

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1125392269354336256

That's not how it works. Just because the Atlantic might be below average doesn't mean areas are free from threats.

Interestingly the ECMWF forecast shows a weak African Monsoon, if I remember correctly last year it also showed a weak WAM which did not verify at all.
3 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
crownweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 357
Age: 45
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:21 am
Location: Indian Orchard, Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#127 Postby crownweather » Mon May 06, 2019 11:00 am

SFLcane wrote:See you in 2020 if the ECMWF is right lol...

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1125392269354336256


Definitely not. Even though the Euro seasonal is showing below average tropical cyclone activity, it is also showing enhanced rainfall signals along the East Coast of the US. Also the monthly ensemble means from the Euro seasonal hints at above average rainfall in the NE Gulf of Mexico & especially from NE Florida to the Jersey coast in August.

Honestly, I think in-close development is a real concern this season & even in-close development can spin up & intensify quite fast (i.e. Elena 1985, Diana 1984, Humberto 2007).
1 likes   
Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3644
Age: 41
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#128 Postby SFLcane » Mon May 06, 2019 11:16 am

2 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 838
Age: 20
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#129 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon May 06, 2019 12:35 pm

It's not surprising to see the EC so bearish on Atlantic TC activity. That model's high bias with surface pressures over the Atlantic is definitely impacting its TC forecasts. While El Nino will likely continue for at least a few more months, and the 60% of normal forecast may not be that outlandish, the EC's seasonal forecasts for the Atlantic have been pretty bad. I've also noticed it predicts a weak west African monsoon, which would certainly impact the forecast. I believe it showed the same thing last season, when precipitable water over the Sahel region was well above average for most of the season.

If I remember correctly, last year it predicted less than 10 named storms for the Atlantic with ACE ~50% of normal. In 2017 it didn't do very well either.
1 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2940
Age: 58
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#130 Postby chaser1 » Mon May 06, 2019 12:50 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
SFLcane wrote:See you in 2020 if the ECMWF is right lol...

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1125392269354336256

That's not how it works. Just because the Atlantic might be below average doesn't mean areas are free from threats.

Interestingly the ECMWF forecast shows a weak African Monsoon, if I remember correctly last year it also showed a weak WAM which did not verify at all.


What SFLcane suggested was obviously tongue in cheek. The essential point being that if this ECMWF forecast verifies, one would broadly expect a significantly reduced Atlantic Hurricane season as well as an under average ACE for the season. To what extent relative smaller "Goldilocks" regions of more favorable conditions might still exist simply suggest, both smaller windows where formative conditions may exist and smaller windows for potential track and "time over water" intensity potential. There's no question that the decades long history of Atlantic Storm tracks show's multiple examples of intense "home-grown" or near land storm tracks which ultimately impacted the U.S. That merely suggests the obvious; During Hurricane Season potential risk is always present. Overall though, I do believe that ENSO related stronger then normal Southern Jet winds and anomalously higher 500mb heights through most of the MDR, Caribbean, and Gulf will help mitigate the threat of moderate to stronger tropical cyclones from impacting typically prone regions of the Caribbean, GOM, and S.E. CONUS. I'm less concerned about a potential for 2-3 GOM Tropical Storm tracks impacting the N.E. Gulf, then the greater more ominous threat some season's present for a powerful hurricane to strike. Hopefully, we won't see an Elena, Andrew, or Charlie find their way toward a N. GOM or Florida W. Coast track during this season. Dependent on overall steering however, I think the Eastern (and/or Northeast U.S. or Canadian Maritimes) U.S. Seaboard regions, Bermuda, and the Azores might well see a bit more of an amplified Hurricane impact risk this year. With any luck, the Lesser and Greater Antilles will get "a pass" this year with a decreased risk of storm tracks toward those regions.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2940
Age: 58
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#131 Postby chaser1 » Mon May 06, 2019 12:59 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:It's not surprising to see the EC so bearish on Atlantic TC activity. That model's high bias with surface pressures over the Atlantic is definitely impacting its TC forecasts. While El Nino will likely continue for at least a few more months, and the 60% of normal forecast may not be that outlandish, the EC's seasonal forecasts for the Atlantic have been pretty bad. I've also noticed it predicts a weak west African monsoon, which would certainly impact the forecast. I believe it showed the same thing last season, when precipitable water over the Sahel region was well above average for most of the season.

If I remember correctly, last year it predicted less than 10 named storms for the Atlantic with ACE ~50% of normal. In 2017 it didn't do very well either.


This too is a solid point. If it were not for present ENSO conditions and my own belief that ENSO will possibly amplify during May-August, I'd be a good deal more skeptical of the EURO's typical bias depicting the Atlantic as a high pressure dust bowl.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3644
Age: 41
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#132 Postby SFLcane » Tue May 07, 2019 7:16 am

I for one do not think el nino will not play a significant role this season but we shall see.

 https://twitter.com/jameil123456/status/1125506750327685121


3 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6212
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#133 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue May 07, 2019 11:33 pm

Honestly I’d go neutral ENSO for hurricane season and may even end up at 0 for peak season IMO as the WWBs are not making it past the dateline so we’ll see as that will be the thing that may separate an active season and a below average season
1 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6212
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#134 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue May 07, 2019 11:38 pm

I also noticed that if the ENSO somehow goes negative 1985 may pop up as an analog with a very similar Atlantic SSTA and fits with closer to land development with cooler MDR so that may be something to watch for
1 likes   

User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1208
Age: 16
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#135 Postby weathaguyry » Wed May 15, 2019 12:28 pm

Image

Now that it is becoming increasingly likely that the ENSO will have a minimal effect on the Atlantic hurricane season, I think there is a shot for a fairly active season. The SST profile is far from ideal, but the MDR is either at or above normal in most spots, and the WAM looks to be decently strong this year. Of course it is May and there are many factors that can change, but I personally believe that this season will be at least as active as last year, if not more.
1 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12'

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1107
Age: 17
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#136 Postby NotSparta » Wed May 15, 2019 2:19 pm

No doubt the WAM will be a favorable indicator again this yr

Image
3 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5932
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#137 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed May 15, 2019 2:28 pm

:uarrow: Could this also allow storms to form sooner and recurve OTS away from land? Would love to track some Cape Verde long-trackers that harmlessly affect only the fishes.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1107
Age: 17
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#138 Postby NotSparta » Wed May 15, 2019 2:39 pm

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Could this also allow storms to form sooner and recurve OTS away from land? Would love to track some Cape Verde long-trackers that harmlessly affect only the fishes.


I hope there's lots of recurvature. It does look like this will make it more favorable for storms to form earlier, but we still need to figure out how ridging is, as that is the big factor. We weren't so lucky the past 2 yrs
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5932
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#139 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed May 15, 2019 2:43 pm

NotSparta wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Could this also allow storms to form sooner and recurve OTS away from land? Would love to track some Cape Verde long-trackers that harmlessly affect only the fishes.


I hope there's lots of recurvature. It does look like this will make it more favorable for storms to form earlier, but we still need to figure out how ridging is, as that is the big factor. We weren't so lucky the past 2 yrs

Yes the NAO was mostly positive the last few years during the peak months, but as of lately it has been holding steadily negative. I wonder if it’ll remain that way all summer for once a lot like back in 2010.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2940
Age: 58
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#140 Postby chaser1 » Wed May 15, 2019 4:09 pm

We've often seen a number of high amplitude tropical wave migrating westward from the African coast, appear to have more then one point of clear vorticity. Often times where low latitude conditions are not conducive to development, the convection along the north and east of that wave or "inverted V" becomes dominant (assuming favorable conditions of course). I think I recall this type of wave as being referenced as a flying or screaming eagle (??). In any case, should typically lower MDR regions still be experiencing strong westerly shear then one result of course might simply cause many waves to weaken as they push west outpacing their MLC. On the other hand, a strong African monsoonal flow and healthy wave train could also result in some development to occur at somewhat higher latitudes (as described above) but then likely become susceptible to a quicker re-curve track in the process. On the other hand we've also seen circumstances where strong Atlantic waves seem to wilt under Atlantic high surface pressures, dry air, upper level conditions, etc. yet suddenly begin to see it's southern wave axis become much more active over coastal S. America and as it enters into the W. Caribbean as well. Some positive conditions appear to be in play this season. Just a matter of where conditions will ultimately be conducive enough for development to occur, and where those storm tracks will carry them from there.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.




Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: CyclonicFury, HurricaneMaster_PR, riapal, Siker and 55 guests