CyclonicFury wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1104393404153319424
Where about in the North Atlantic? Tropics or Subtropics? Either way it would mean little to no difference likely in the outcome of things if you have a full blown El Niño like some are saying may come to fruition.
I think even in a moderate-strong El Niño, a warm MDR would likely make the difference between a well below average season and a slightly below average season. Look at 2015 for this. The MDR was fairly active that season including a major hurricane. As long as the WAM remains strong as it has been in recent years, I don't think we will be looking at historic inactivity this season even if we have a strong El Niño.
Yes. It made a massive difference that yr. Warmest ASO on record, yet the season wasn't far from near normal.
And, there was a reason 2018 ended up above average w/ a record EP season.
I am currently leaning towards another strong one given the multidecadal trend (since the 70s). However, I do believe the season may be stunted more than last season w/ 1. a weaker WAM (low certainty) and 2. a stronger El Niño