2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1690
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#81 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Apr 08, 2019 7:31 pm

Won’t effect to much, still above average in my book
0 likes   

User avatar
DioBrando
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:45 pm
Location: naples, italy

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#82 Postby DioBrando » Mon Apr 08, 2019 7:43 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Won’t effect to much, still above average in my book

so, how many storms do you reckon for the atlantic then? how many majors?
0 likes   
~~WANNABEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE~~
Vocal percussion on a whole 'nother level, comin' from my mind

stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1690
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#83 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:20 pm

14-15, 3 major, think it will kind of similar as last year, everyone last year was waiting on El Niño and really never came into fruition, this year same thing I think El Niño is being over hyped for this hurricane season and models have struggled with it!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5664
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#84 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:04 am

3 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 115229
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#85 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:48 am

3 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 812
Age: 17
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Between Toronto and Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#86 Postby NotSparta » Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:02 pm



Also, this type of standing wave is detrimental to El Niños - think 2018 - but doesn't preclude one
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9981
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#87 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Apr 11, 2019 3:27 pm

NotSparta wrote:


Also, this type of standing wave is detrimental to El Niños - think 2018 - but doesn't preclude one


From what I see, the problem with this type of standing wave is that it doesn't stop an El Nino or a progression towards an El Nino, it usually keeps the event weak/moderate or delays a developing El Nino, so this may open the door to another event in 2020. Pretty stubborn pattern.
3 likes   
Image

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 812
Age: 17
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Between Toronto and Naples, FL
Contact:

2019 ATL Season

#88 Postby NotSparta » Thu Apr 18, 2019 2:44 pm

0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10140
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#89 Postby NDG » Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:14 am

I blinked too long didn't even notice that the NAO had gone negative, back to the positive regime over the next few days.

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 115229
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#90 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:19 am

ECMWF MSLP forecast for ASO is a copy and paste that has higher pressures everywhere in the Atlantic. Kingarabian ,you are sitting in a dense blue bomb zone.

Image
3 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 644
Age: 20
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#91 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:40 am

cycloneye wrote:ECMWF MSLP forecast for ASO is a copy and paste that has higher pressures everywhere in the Atlantic. Kingarabian ,you are sitting in a blue bomb zone.

https://i.imgur.com/wAVYfvS.png

Same old same old. It has shown the same thing for the past 5 years.
4 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1690
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#92 Postby stormlover2013 » Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:42 am

Yep euro has struggled for a while with that forecast
0 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 644
Age: 20
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#93 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:49 pm

As one would expect the ECMWF shows below normal precip in the Atlantic MDR and generally a -AMO SST signature with a near normal MDR and the warmest anomalies in the subtropics, but this forecast is likely largely dependent on the persistence of El Niño conditions. If El Niño dissipates which looks like a possibility now, this forecast will likely bust. Just a reminder the April ECMWF forecast for ASO in 2017 was nearly identical.
Image
Image
2 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1194
Age: 15
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#94 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:ECMWF MSLP forecast for ASO is a copy and paste that has higher pressures everywhere in the Atlantic. Kingarabian ,you are sitting in a dense blue bomb zone.

https://i.imgur.com/wAVYfvS.png


Image

Here's the same forecast for 2017, just for comparison
0 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12'

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9981
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

#95 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 20, 2019 3:46 pm

cycloneye wrote:ECMWF MSLP forecast for ASO is a copy and paste that has higher pressures everywhere in the Atlantic. Kingarabian ,you are sitting in a dense blue bomb zone.

https://i.imgur.com/wAVYfvS.png


Yeah unfortunately. If things remain the same, have to pray that the southwesterlies are present again.
1 likes   
Image


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: johngaltfla, Kazmit, pepecool20, tolakram, zal0phus and 8 guests