2019 Global ACE: NATL - 4.1 - EPAC - 48.6 - WPAC - 78.7 - IO - 33.5

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cycloneye
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2019 Global ACE: NATL - 4.1 - EPAC - 48.6 - WPAC - 78.7 - IO - 33.5

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:22 am

Here is the 2019 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) thread.

As normally occurs we begin counting with the SPAC but WPAC begins off the bat with some early ACE units.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.0 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 0.4 - IO - 0.0 - SHEM - 58.7

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 02, 2019 7:24 am

The big questions are if the EPAC and WPAC exceed the 2018 ACE numbers based on what is expected from ENSO?
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.0 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 0.4 - IO - 0.0 - SHEM - 58.7

#3 Postby TyphoonNara » Wed Jan 02, 2019 7:27 am

cycloneye wrote:The big questions are if the EPAC and WPAC exceed the 2017 ACE numbers based on what is expected from ENSO?


Do you mean 2018? 2017 was a really inactive year for both basins. I think it is easy for 2019 to surpass 2017 in terms of ACE.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.0 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 0.4 - IO - 0.0 - SHEM - 58.7

#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 02, 2019 7:54 am

cycloneye wrote:
TyphoonNara wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The big questions are if the EPAC and WPAC exceed the 2018 ACE numbers based on what is expected from ENSO?


Do you mean 2018? 2017 was a really inactive year for both basins. I think it is easy for 2019 to surpass 2017 in terms of ACE.


Yup,2018.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.0 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 0.4 - IO - 0.0 - SHEM - 58.7

#5 Postby TyphoonNara » Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:11 am

cycloneye wrote:The big questions are if the EPAC and WPAC exceed the 2018 ACE numbers based on what is expected from ENSO?


It depends on whether El-Nino persists throughout 2019. If it persists throughout 2019, WPAC may have a good chance of beating 2018. Not sure for EPAC though, because the 2018 EPAC was record-breakingly active.

If El-Nino dies down in 2019 spring or summer, we may see neutral or even mild La-Nina conditions in autumn and winter 2019. This may damper tropical activities in both Pacific basins, make them harder to trump last year's ACE.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.0 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 1.2 - IO - 0.0 - SHEM - 60.8

#6 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:28 am

Mmm doesn't Pabuk (36W) actually count for 2018 or is it really 2019?
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.0 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 1.2 - IO - 0.0 - SHEM - 60.8

#7 Postby TyphoonNara » Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:55 am

euro6208 wrote:Mmm doesn't Pabuk (36W) actually count for 2018 or is it really 2019?


The ACE from Pabuk yielded in 2018 goes to 2018, 2019 ACE goes to 2019. As Pabuk was still a tropical depression when it crossed the calendar year, all of its ACE contributes to 2019.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.0 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 1.2 - IO - 0.0 - SHEM - 60.8

#8 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:06 pm

TyphoonNara wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Mmm doesn't Pabuk (36W) actually count for 2018 or is it really 2019?


The ACE from Pabuk yielded in 2018 goes to 2018, 2019 ACE goes to 2019. As Pabuk was still a tropical depression when it crossed the calendar year, all of its ACE contributes to 2019.

That breaks with NHC's practice though. The last year crossing system was Zeta '05 in the NATL, and the NHC kept all its ACE with the 2005 season.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.0 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 1.2 - IO - 0.0 - SHEM - 60.8

#9 Postby TyphoonNara » Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:27 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
TyphoonNara wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Mmm doesn't Pabuk (36W) actually count for 2018 or is it really 2019?


The ACE from Pabuk yielded in 2018 goes to 2018, 2019 ACE goes to 2019. As Pabuk was still a tropical depression when it crossed the calendar year, all of its ACE contributes to 2019.

That breaks with NHC's practice though. The last year crossing system was Zeta '05 in the NATL, and the NHC kept all its ACE with the 2005 season.


I am not sure if it is appropriate to use NHC's practice in the WPAC though. IMO, I don't think there is a "standard" way to distribute ACE. But I think contributing Pabuk's ACE yielded in 2019 to 2018 doesn't make much sense. This is like preserving all the ACE in the CPAC even after a CPAC storm enters the WPAC. I think it is safe the say that most of us agree that all the ACE yielded in the basin where the storm is now located should be contributed to that basin, regardless where did the storm form. So I don't see why year-crossing storms should be treated differently.

Moreover, isn't this thread based on the numbers of http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/? I think CSU contributes Pabuk's 2019 portion of ACE to 2019.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.0 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 2.0 - IO - 0.0 - SHEM - 105.9

#10 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 13, 2019 8:15 am

SHEM is about normal on the ACE right now but models are showing strong things there that could rise a lot the numbers. Also WPAC may have a rise in numbers if models are right.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.0 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 2.1 - IO - 0.0 - SHEM - 116.5

#11 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:03 pm

WPAC is poised to get a lot of ACE with WUTIP that could be a bonifide Typhoon.(Not common on Febuary) Meanwhile TC OMA continues to add ACE units to the SHEM.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.0 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 15.8 - IO - 0.0 - SHEM - 119.8

#12 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Feb 23, 2019 5:58 pm

With Wutip still active, the WPac has churned out the most February ACE since 1970.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.0 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 15.8 - IO - 0.0 - SHEM - 119.8

#13 Postby TyphoonNara » Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:47 pm

Wutip has produced over 15 ACE already. Let's see if it can surpass the record of 1970 Typhoon Nancy (21 ACE), which is the storm currently holding the position of highest ACE in February.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.0 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 15.8 - IO - 0.0 - SHEM - 119.8

#14 Postby Ntxw » Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:30 pm

TyphoonNara wrote:Wutip has produced over 15 ACE already. Let's see if it can surpass the record of 1970 Typhoon Nancy (21 ACE), which is the storm currently holding the position of highest ACE in February.


WUTIP will surpass pretty easily and more.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.0 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 15.8 - IO - 0.0 - SHEM - 119.8

#15 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:36 pm

Ntxw wrote:
TyphoonNara wrote:Wutip has produced over 15 ACE already. Let's see if it can surpass the record of 1970 Typhoon Nancy (21 ACE), which is the storm currently holding the position of highest ACE in February.


WUTIP will surpass pretty easily and more.

Yep, it'll cross easily at 06Z.

System: WUTIP (02W)
Date & Time Vmax ACE PDI Class
(kt) Inst Sum Inst Sum
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2/18/2019 06Z: 20, 0.0000, 0.0000, 0.000000, 0.000000, DB
2/18/2019 12Z: 20, 0.0000, 0.0000, 0.000000, 0.000000, DB
2/18/2019 18Z: 20, 0.0000, 0.0000, 0.000000, 0.000000, DB
2/19/2019 00Z: 20, 0.0000, 0.0000, 0.000000, 0.000000, DB
2/19/2019 06Z: 25, 0.0000, 0.0000, 0.000000, 0.000000, TD
2/19/2019 12Z: 30, 0.0000, 0.0000, 0.000000, 0.000000, TD
2/19/2019 18Z: 35, 0.1225, 0.1225, 0.042875, 0.042875, TS
2/20/2019 00Z: 45, 0.2025, 0.3250, 0.091125, 0.134000, TS
2/20/2019 06Z: 50, 0.2500, 0.5750, 0.125000, 0.259000, TS
2/20/2019 12Z: 55, 0.3025, 0.8775, 0.166375, 0.425375, TS
2/20/2019 18Z: 60, 0.3600, 1.2375, 0.216000, 0.641375, TS
2/21/2019 00Z: 65, 0.4225, 1.6600, 0.274625, 0.916000, TY
2/21/2019 06Z: 75, 0.5625, 2.2225, 0.421875, 1.337875, TY
2/21/2019 12Z: 85, 0.7225, 2.9450, 0.614125, 1.952000, TY
2/21/2019 18Z: 90, 0.8100, 3.7550, 0.729000, 2.681000, TY
2/22/2019 00Z: 95, 0.9025, 4.6575, 0.857375, 3.538375, TY
2/22/2019 06Z: 100, 1.0000, 5.6575, 1.000000, 4.538375, TY
2/22/2019 12Z: 105, 1.1025, 6.7600, 1.157625, 5.696000, TY
2/22/2019 18Z: 105, 1.1025, 7.8625, 1.157625, 6.853625, TY
2/23/2019 00Z: 110, 1.2100, 9.0725, 1.331000, 8.184625, TY
2/23/2019 06Z: 115, 1.3225, 10.3950, 1.520875, 9.705500, TY
2/23/2019 12Z: 135, 1.8225, 12.2175, 2.460375, 12.165875, ST
2/23/2019 18Z: 135, 1.8225, 14.0400, 2.460375, 14.626250, ST
2/24/2019 00Z: 125, 1.5625, 15.6025, 1.953125, 16.579375, TY
2/24/2019 06Z: 115, 1.3225, 16.9250, 1.520875, 18.100250, TY
2/24/2019 12Z: 105, 1.1025, 18.0275, 1.157625, 19.257875, TY
2/24/2019 18Z: 110, 1.2100, 19.2375, 1.331000, 20.588875, TY
2/25/2019 00Z: 115, 1.3225, 20.5600, 1.520875, 22.109750, TY
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.0 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 24.6 - IO - 0.0 - SHEM - 121.0

#16 Postby euro6208 » Mon Feb 25, 2019 7:11 am

Already at 24.6. Normal YTD is 2.8!
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.0 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 35.2 - IO - 0.0 - SHEM - 125.5

#17 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:06 am

Here's my final numbers for Wutip.

System: WUTIP (02W)
Date & Time Vmax ACE PDI Class
(kt) Inst Sum Inst Sum
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2/18/2019 06Z: 20, 0.0000, 0.0000, 0.000000, 0.000000, DB
2/18/2019 12Z: 20, 0.0000, 0.0000, 0.000000, 0.000000, DB
2/18/2019 18Z: 20, 0.0000, 0.0000, 0.000000, 0.000000, DB
2/19/2019 00Z: 20, 0.0000, 0.0000, 0.000000, 0.000000, DB
2/19/2019 06Z: 25, 0.0000, 0.0000, 0.000000, 0.000000, TD
2/19/2019 12Z: 30, 0.0000, 0.0000, 0.000000, 0.000000, TD
2/19/2019 18Z: 35, 0.1225, 0.1225, 0.042875, 0.042875, TS
2/20/2019 00Z: 45, 0.2025, 0.3250, 0.091125, 0.134000, TS
2/20/2019 06Z: 50, 0.2500, 0.5750, 0.125000, 0.259000, TS
2/20/2019 12Z: 55, 0.3025, 0.8775, 0.166375, 0.425375, TS
2/20/2019 18Z: 60, 0.3600, 1.2375, 0.216000, 0.641375, TS
2/21/2019 00Z: 65, 0.4225, 1.6600, 0.274625, 0.916000, TY
2/21/2019 06Z: 75, 0.5625, 2.2225, 0.421875, 1.337875, TY
2/21/2019 12Z: 85, 0.7225, 2.9450, 0.614125, 1.952000, TY
2/21/2019 18Z: 90, 0.8100, 3.7550, 0.729000, 2.681000, TY
2/22/2019 00Z: 95, 0.9025, 4.6575, 0.857375, 3.538375, TY
2/22/2019 06Z: 100, 1.0000, 5.6575, 1.000000, 4.538375, TY
2/22/2019 12Z: 105, 1.1025, 6.7600, 1.157625, 5.696000, TY
2/22/2019 18Z: 105, 1.1025, 7.8625, 1.157625, 6.853625, TY
2/23/2019 00Z: 110, 1.2100, 9.0725, 1.331000, 8.184625, TY
2/23/2019 06Z: 115, 1.3225, 10.3950, 1.520875, 9.705500, TY
2/23/2019 12Z: 135, 1.8225, 12.2175, 2.460375, 12.165875, ST
2/23/2019 18Z: 135, 1.8225, 14.0400, 2.460375, 14.626250, ST
2/24/2019 00Z: 125, 1.5625, 15.6025, 1.953125, 16.579375, TY
2/24/2019 06Z: 115, 1.3225, 16.9250, 1.520875, 18.100250, TY
2/24/2019 12Z: 105, 1.1025, 18.0275, 1.157625, 19.257875, TY
2/24/2019 18Z: 110, 1.2100, 19.2375, 1.331000, 20.588875, TY
2/25/2019 00Z: 120, 1.4400, 20.6775, 1.728000, 22.316875, TY
2/25/2019 06Z: 140, 1.9600, 22.6375, 2.744000, 25.060875, ST
2/25/2019 12Z: 130, 1.6900, 24.3275, 2.197000, 27.257875, ST
2/25/2019 18Z: 130, 1.6900, 26.0175, 2.197000, 29.454875, ST
2/26/2019 00Z: 120, 1.4400, 27.4575, 1.728000, 31.182875, TY
2/26/2019 06Z: 115, 1.3225, 28.7800, 1.520875, 32.703750, TY
2/26/2019 12Z: 95, 0.9025, 29.6825, 0.857375, 33.561125, TY
2/26/2019 18Z: 95, 0.9025, 30.5850, 0.857375, 34.418500, TY
2/27/2019 00Z: 90, 0.8100, 31.3950, 0.729000, 35.147500, TY
2/27/2019 06Z: 80, 0.6400, 32.0350, 0.512000, 35.659500, TY
2/27/2019 12Z: 60, 0.3600, 32.3950, 0.216000, 35.875500, TS
2/27/2019 18Z: 40, 0.1600, 32.5550, 0.064000, 35.939500, TS
2/28/2019 00Z: 35, 0.1225, 32.6775, 0.042875, 35.982375, TS
2/28/2019 06Z: 30, 0.0000, 32.6775, 0.000000, 35.982375, TD
2/28/2019 12Z: 25, 0.0000, 32.6775, 0.000000, 35.982375, TD
------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.0 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 35.2 - IO - 0.0 - SHEM - 126.3

#18 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:27 pm

I think we can say for sure WPAC will be the leader of the 2019 ACE in the Northern Hemisphere with this sprint start thanks to WUTIP. But I can see EPAC getting over 300 ACE units if el Niño remains but not enough to pass WPAC.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.0 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 35.2 - IO - 0.0 - SHEM - 145.8

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:53 pm

The Southern Hemisphere is poised to add much more ACE units as TC IDAI gets very strong and other future developments in the next few days will be on the pipe.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.0 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 35.2 - IO - 0.0 - SHEM - 145.8

#20 Postby TyphoonNara » Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:32 pm

ACE numbers from the SIO season and WPAC season are way above average. As shown in 1997 and 2015, a strong SIO season and early WPAC season is a telltale sign of an impending El-Nino.
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