2019 Global ACE: NATL - 4.1 - EPAC - 48.6 - WPAC - 78.7 - IO - 33.5

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cycloneye
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.0 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 35.2 - IO - 0.0 - SHEM - 234.0

#21 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:24 am

SHEM ACE (234) is way above the average (182) after the past strong cyclones.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.4 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 35.2 - IO - 19.9 - SHEM - 258.0

#22 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:39 am

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WPAC ACE YTD is still above average compared to climatology but should decline if this quietness continues.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.4 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 35.2 - IO - 33.5 - SHEM - 258.0

#23 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:43 am

Well for the first time this year, the WPAC ACE will be behind in terms of ACE. 35.2, a majority from the record breaking Cat 5 monster Wutip back in February. ACE climatologically is 33.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.4 - EPAC - 0.0 - WPAC - 35.2 - IO - 33.5 - SHEM - 258.0

#24 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:32 am

Wow. For the first time this season, the WPAC is now behind climatologically. 35.2 (35.4). Wutip did his part. July is when ACE should really build up. We'll see.

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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.4 - EPAC - 1.0 - WPAC - 35.2 - IO - 33.5 - SHEM - 258.0

#25 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 27, 2019 11:45 am

EPAC has begun to add ACE in 2019,Let's see if it gets over 316 units. (2018 total) To reach that goal it has to be quality over quantity.(Longtrackers cat 3 or higher)
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.4 - EPAC - 1.0 - WPAC - 35.2 - IO - 33.5 - SHEM - 258.0

#26 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Jun 27, 2019 12:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:EPAC has begun to add ACE in 2019,Let's see if it gets over 316 units. (2018 total) To reach that goal it has to be quality over quantity.(Longtrackers cat 3 or higher)

I don't think the EPAC will come anywhere close to 316 units this year. Last year had a very active June, and this year we have only had one TS so far. I'm expecting an ACE around half that.

As for the CPAC, I'm expecting a lot of ACE over there, but whether we actually have a significant TC reach Hawaii remains a big question since climatologically hurricane landfalls are rare there.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.4 - EPAC - 1.0 - WPAC - 35.2 - IO - 33.5 - SHEM - 258.0

#27 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jun 27, 2019 12:09 pm

cycloneye wrote:EPAC has begun to add ACE in 2019,Let's see if it gets over 316 units. (2018 total) To reach that goal it has to be quality over quantity.(Longtrackers cat 3 or higher)


Getting over 300 units of ACE outside of the WPAC is a tough feat. Will need a lot of west trackers that stay south of Hawaii.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.4 - EPAC - 2.4 - WPAC - 35.2 - IO - 33.5 - SHEM - 258.0

#28 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jun 28, 2019 10:45 am

94E (Barbara?) if caught under the ridge and heads west would help the EPAC/CPAC go well above normal. Also if the modeled systems after do come to fruition the EPAC could be sitting anywhere between 25-35 units of ACE by mid July. Average is about half of that.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.4 - EPAC - 2.8 - WPAC - 35.7 - IO - 33.5 - SHEM - 258.0

#29 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:20 pm

Now that Barbara has formed,let's see how many ACE units it gets in the next few days .Models are advertising more activity behind Barbara very soon so it looks like this basin will get a lot to help in the push for 300+.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.4 - EPAC - 19.0 - WPAC - 35.7 - IO - 33.5

#30 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jul 04, 2019 10:06 am

EPAC is now above normal at 19 units.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.4 - EPAC - 19.0 - WPAC - 35.7 - IO - 33.5

#31 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 04, 2019 10:28 am

Ntxw wrote:EPAC is now above normal at 19 units.


Yep,and let's see how much future Cosme gets to add a little bit more.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 0.4 - EPAC - 22.5 - WPAC - 35.7 - IO - 33.5

#32 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:28 pm

Barbara did not make it to 20 units but was very close at 19.3. Let's see how much Cosme gets but based on the forecast wont get a lot.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 3.6 - EPAC - 23.1 - WPAC - 35.7 - IO - 33.5

#33 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:47 am

Barry only was able to generate about 3.2 ACE, so the Atlantic remains slightly below average in ACE. The EPAC has recently dipped below average because of a lull. The WPAC is below average because it has been extremely quiet since Wutip. The NIO is well above average, and it alone has pushed the NHEM above average.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 3.6 - EPAC - 23.6 - WPAC - 37.7 - IO - 33.5

#34 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Jul 25, 2019 9:57 pm

Since the beginning of March (which you could argue should be the true beginning of the season after the February climatological minimum), the WPac has only put out 2.675 units of ACE out of a total 35.3525. Wutip put up all the rest. Only 1975 and 1998 have had numbers similarly low in that span since 1970. The WPac is preforming at historically bad levels in this part of the season.

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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 3.6 - EPAC - 45.6 - WPAC - 72.3 - IO - 33.5

#35 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 11, 2019 7:16 am

Image

Up up up!

ACE at 72.3 Normal is (88.2)
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 3.6 - EPAC - 46.0 - WPAC - 74.3 - IO - 33.5

#36 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:19 pm

As of 00Z August 12th, I have 72.72 for the WPac, 46.28 for the EPac, and 3.2825 for the NAtl (which is just Barry since I don't do subtropical systems in ACE calculations like most people do). Don't quite have my NIO script set up, but it's coming!

I have some Track Integrated Kinetic Energy (TIKE) scripts that are almost ready to use for all basins. If anyone is interested, I can start sharing that data either here or in a new dedicated thread.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 3.6 - EPAC - 46.0 - WPAC - 74.3 - IO - 33.5

#37 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:24 pm

1900hurricane wrote:As of 00Z August 12th, I have 72.72 for the WPac, 46.28 for the EPac, and 3.2825 for the NAtl (which is just Barry since I don't do subtropical systems in ACE calculations like most people do). Don't quite have my NIO script set up, but it's coming!

I have some Track Integrated Kinetic Energy (TIKE) scripts that are almost ready to use for all basins. If anyone is interested, I can start sharing that data either here or in a new dedicated thread.


Very good.Share it here.
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 3.6 - EPAC - 46.1 - WPAC - 76.8 - IO - 33.5

#38 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Aug 16, 2019 5:38 pm

Ok, as promised, here is my TIKE data for 2019 in the Northern Hemisphere. Data is pulled directly from best track via some Python scripts I've written and put into .csv files, which I've opened in a spreadsheet program and taken a screenshot here. Checking for basin crossers was a bit of a pain in the butt, but I have everything dialed in now.

Image

Image

Image

Image

And since there is little context for TIKE for the most part, here is a graph comparing basins back to 2004, when wind radii data was regularly kept in the bdecks across all basins. It might be worth noting that JTWC claims their wind radii data isn't of the best quality until as recently as 2016, but this should give at least an idea of how the basins compare against each other.

Image

Also worth noting that the 2018 EPac data should still rise a little when the CPHC releases all their portions of best track data. For the WPac and NIO that year, I used the preliminary data since JTWC has yet to release the final best track data (still).

EDIT*: Added SHem data too.

Image
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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 3.2825 - EPAC - 46.28 - WPAC - 75.465 - NIO - 35.205

#39 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:41 pm

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Re: 2019 Global ACE: NATL - 3.6 - EPAC - 46.1 - WPAC - 76.9 - IO - 33.5

#40 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 20, 2019 7:30 am

Indeed. Having the World's most active basin struggling like this is something.
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