2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:17 am

The 2019 thread for models is here. The highlight of this year is the upgrade of FV3 test model of NCEP to operational eliminating the old GFS on January 24.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:39 pm

Delay of FV3 upgrade very possible based on the recent tests.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1081268461756661761


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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 05, 2019 7:57 pm

This is getting bad if it continues. No upgrades to models would be one of the things that would not occur.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1081671359191834624


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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#4 Postby StruThiO » Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:01 pm

Avila is not amused. :oops:
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:00 pm

Hopefully the shutdown ends very soon because the models may not be fine. :cry:
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:38 am

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#7 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:25 pm

140 days until the 2019 Hurricane Season begins. Glad the NW GOM was quiet last year after Harvey 2017.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#8 Postby AJC3 » Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:32 pm

Since Atlantic followers are going to be bored to tears for the next several months with absolutely nothing going on, I might as well point out the low latitude cold core baroclinic (non-tropical) cutoff low that the global op-models are forecasting to form in the central Atlantic by next weekend (25-27 JAN). The globals usually have a decent handle on these types of lows, and, assuming it forms, will give peeps something to watch for a few days as it should start off as a symmetric cold core system tooting convection around its circulation due to the cold temps aloft. All the runs are from THU 12Z,
and unless otherwise noted (JAM, NAVGEM), have a verifying time of next SAT (H216) 12Z on 26 JAN

ECM
Image

GFS
Image

FV3
Image

GEM
Image

JMA 12Z FRI
Image

NAVGEM 18Z THU
Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#9 Postby vortextracker » Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:24 pm

cycloneye wrote:The 2019 thread for models is here. The highlight of this year is the upgrade of FV3 test model of NCEP to operational eliminating the old GFS on January 24.


Kinda liked the old GFS with the tropical teasers.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#10 Postby NotSparta » Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:08 am

vortextracker wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The 2019 thread for models is here. The highlight of this year is the upgrade of FV3 test model of NCEP to operational eliminating the old GFS on January 24.


Kinda liked the old GFS with the tropical teasers.


FV3 did that too
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#11 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Jan 20, 2019 2:17 pm

The ECMWF, GFS, CMC and ICON models all continue to show this system. It could acquire some subtropical characteristics, but is unlikely to gain the organization necessary for it to be classified by NHC. Will be interesting to see how it develops.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#12 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 23, 2019 12:54 pm

Big delays of NCEP on the GFS-FV3 runs.

From Levi Cowan site: NOAA data downloads are very slow today, resulting in model delays. I'm working to retrieve the data.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#13 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:39 pm

FV3 was supposed to be upgraded and the old GFS eliminated on January 24th but........

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1088158302440222722


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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#14 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:45 pm

Just following the models for winter weather tracking over the US this winter, the current GFS seems to be doing better than the FV3 GFS. Not sure this model should have been released tomorrow anyway even if the government shutdown was not happening.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#15 Postby AJC3 » Fri Jan 25, 2019 5:51 am

AJC3 wrote:Since Atlantic followers are going to be bored to tears for the next several months with absolutely nothing going on, I might as well point out the low latitude cold core baroclinic (non-tropical) cutoff low that the global op-models are forecasting to form in the central Atlantic by next weekend (25-27 JAN). The globals usually have a decent handle on these types of lows, and, assuming it forms, will give peeps something to watch for a few days as it should start off as a symmetric cold core system tooting convection around its circulation due to the cold temps aloft. All the runs are from THU 12Z, and unless otherwise noted (JAM, NAVGEM), have a verifying time of next SAT (H216) 12Z on 26 JAN.

ECM https://i.imgur.com/uMgMbTA.png
GFS [https://i.imgur.com/6g9l01l.png
FV3 https://i.imgur.com/E6PwfqH.png
GEM https://i.imgur.com/tdyatsG.png
JMA 12Z FRI https://i.imgur.com/iMzb1a4.png
NAVGEM 18Z THU https://i.imgur.com/c97Xyt3.png


And here we are, 8 days later on the 25th, and the globals were pretty much spot on, as is more often than not the case with these types of lows.

https://goo.gl/zsz3A6
https://goo.gl/nFNouo (time sensitive)
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#16 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:07 am

ECMWF will be upgraded on June 2019

ECMWF will get a big upgrade (I mean a big one) on June 2019.

https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FC ... cycle+46r1
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:42 pm

Great news from NOAA about more improvements on weather modeling. Two excerpts below:

The United States is making exciting changes to how computer models will be developed in the future to support the nation’s weather and climate forecast system. NOAA and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) have joined forces to help the nation’s weather and climate modeling scientists achieve mutual benefits through more strategic collaboration, shared resources and information.

With a new stage set for community modeling, NOAA is poised to upgrade the Global Forecasting System in the months ahead with the addition of a new dynamic core, called the FV3. The FV3-based GFS will be the first NOAA application derived from community modeling and will improve forecast accuracy.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa ... -framework
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#18 Postby TorSkk » Wed Feb 13, 2019 6:33 am

GFS thinks another Winston is going to strike Fiji


Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#19 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 13, 2019 6:06 pm

The FV3-GFS upgrade will now occur on March 20 2019 pending successful 30-day technical tests.

 https://twitter.com/NWSEMC/status/1095791865503404032


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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#20 Postby xironman » Sat Feb 16, 2019 7:14 am

cycloneye wrote:The FV3-GFS upgrade will now occur on March 20 2019 pending successful 30-day technical tests.

https://twitter.com/NWSEMC/status/1095791865503404032



Look at the replies to the tweet. I don't know how it does with tropical systems but the FV3-GFS has been an unmitigated disaster for mid-latitude weather this winter. Even RaleighWX was mocking it. Here is a snow map for 2/16 from 0z 2/12 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=126 showing me with 10" of snowfall on what turned out to be a partly cloudy day in the 40s. Please no. Hopefully they keep the old model running.
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