2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[OuterBanker]

Fantasy, but the FV3 has a cat 1 over the obx at hr 306 (06 z 5/22 run)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 206&fh=186

Ain't goona happen that way I don't think. A coast runner too.

[Kazmit]

Definitely looks like some development potential at the end of the month down in the western Caribbean by what these models are showing.

[SoupBone]

Why is it showing an almost Fall like setup? High pressure dominating the Texas coast?

[toad strangler]

Just in time for Opening Day

PLAY BALL!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2019052212&fh=144

[SoupBone]

The FV3-GFS puts a system into the lower GoM and just has it basically sitting there, getting down to 961?

[cycloneye]

Ventrice says no to FV3.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1131259747599028224

[OuterBanker]

LOL, FV3 has now dropped the OBX storm for one headed for MX or TX (even worse at 961 mb).
From the 06z to the 12z 5/22 runs.
6 hrs and couple thousand miles difference.
I just love consistency.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1131240958530596864

[MetroMike]

The 18Z FV3-GFS is even more foreboding for the west coast of Florida.
Just seeing what the present pattern recognition is even if at 10 days out. Watch for any trends.
Cannot absolutely rule anything out in the Hurricane season.

[ronjon]

The 18Z FV3-GFS is even more foreboding for the west coast of Florida.
Just seeing what the present pattern recognition is even if at 10 days out. Watch for any trends.
Cannot absolutely rule anything out in the Hurricane season.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2019052218&fh=384

[TheStormExpert]

The 18Z FV3-GFS is even more foreboding for the west coast of Florida.
Just seeing what the present pattern recognition is even if at 10 days out. Watch for any trends.
Cannot absolutely rule anything out in the Hurricane season.

Same bogus cane issue as last May, nothing new.

[Kingarabian]

Euro has something coming out of the gyre and going into Mexico.

[BobHarlem]

A few of the models are picking up on something in the West Caribbean starting around June 4th or so, I guess that'll be the general area to watch. FV3 throws a hurricane into Tampa from it, but the others aren't as bullish. Maybe just some sort of sloppy system in about 2 weeks. Something to follow at least.

[cycloneye]

Great twitter thread from Levi Cowan.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1131573171876958209

[tolakram]

We get this every year, and the lesson is always the same IMO. Chances are increasing something might form, that's what the GFS is seeing and it may be the first to see it, which makes it a useful tool. What the GFS, any version, does with the storm is not important, too far out and it obviously struggles with this.

[chaser1]

We get this every year, and the lesson is always the same IMO. Chances are increasing something might form, that's what the GFS is seeing and it may be the first to see it, which makes it a useful tool. What the GFS, any version, does with the storm is not important, too far out and it obviously struggles with this.

This afternoon's 12Z Euro not particularly bolstering confidence toward development. Then again, we've also see circumstances where one outlier model continues to hint model run after model run, toward some level of development without any other model consensus at all............ until suddenly model consensus then occurs; THEN tropical development becomes more anticipated. Seemed like this occurred a good deal more in the past but in more recent years it just seems that all the global models have lately been a bit more "wonky". I just think the lesson that recent years have taught, is that we can't anticipate having the benefit and dependence on longer term global model consensus for forecasting tropical development. Even when that does occur, it only suggests an increase in likelihood but not an outright guarantee. Likewise, I think we have to be careful to not simply discard those forecasts by any one global model minus having a broader model consensus There's clearly been numerous recent year cases where either the dynamic conditions themselves or maybe some model data assimilation issue, but something prevented "that" model to justify tropical development - even as one or other models began to close in toward a 48-72 hr. forecast period. I think that it's fair to say that this has occurred on several occasions to both the GFS and the EURO, during the last 4 years.

The point remains, these models are just tools. They give us hints. Even allow us to "hedge". They sniff out favorable conditions for genesis until, like bloodhounds they simply lose that scent. Specific points of development, forecast tracks, or intensity can't be literally counted on for an exact outcome. Even more certainly can forecast outcomes not be relied upon when viewing a time-frame of 4, 5, or more day away. I don't think there's any question, that the majority (probably all) of older forum members here know this all to well.

[floridasun78]

i notice doing may models show more ghost storms any other time of hurr season look modles dont have right data going into season their doing test run see how models are doing going into aug we seen may storms like this year and in past but dont say we see every year may storm (( i dont think we seen years two name storms in may ))

[Weather150]

12z EURO continues to bury the Caribbean disturbance in Central America.

[weathaguyry]

Very typical CAG setup for this time of year, always a battle between the Atlantic and Pacific, if it becomes possible that anything is going to develop on the Atlantic side the NHC will give us our lemon cone far in advance with the notorious “slow development is possible over the next 5 days” line

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1133829684293263361



More subtropical fun!

UKMET was also showing something similar in one of its runs about 2 days ago.