2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[cycloneye]

PDF details of FV3 upgrade

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1138833362246873091

[chaser1]

We Gather here today in fond memory of GFS. It was neither family or friend, yet played a role to so many of us nonetheless. Oh GFS, at times you brought us humor, clarification, irritation, and confusion..... sometime's all during the course of the same day. We will miss your penchant to forecast nearly ALL MDR tropical cyclones to turn pole-ward. I know that I speak for most of us when I say just how much I'll miss your incongruous 18Z model runs. Finally, it is only fitting that on this final day of model runs, that you bless us with one final 384 hr. ghost storm that we may remember you by. It is at this time and with heavy heart, that we must now say "good-bye". Your insightful yet quirky algorithms will be missed.

https://i.imgur.com/Uxnp9ns.png

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1138838179379908608

[cycloneye]

The big question is if the new version does or not show phantom storms.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/wxdam/status/1138844051149602816

[gatorcane]

The big question is if the new version does or not show phantom storms.

It doesn’t seem to be so far while the old GFS has shown phantom storm after phantom storm in the WCAR.

[MetroMike]

The big question is if the new version does or not show phantom storms.

It doesn’t seem to be so far while the old GFS has shown phantom storm after phantom storm in the WCAR.

I will withhold my judgment. The jury is still out.

[NDG]

I was getting ready to type that I now like how it now has a forecast radar but its latest 06z run completely missed on the rain this morning on at 12z across parts of central & northern Florida. So what good is it if it is going to be incorrect

[pcolaman]

I have noticed the same thing with the GFS models being different with the nightly runs compared to the mid day runs. Wats up with that ?

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/QszcsA9

Yeah unlikely a tropical cyclone in the solomon sea in june.

[Tailspin]

When the global tc models are boring i look @ dirty sal bombs.

[northjaxpro]

Yes indeed. The Saharian dust should keep a lid on anything trying to develop out there in the tropics for quite awhile.

[NDG]

https://i.imgur.com/kVz6vHM.gif

When the global tc models are boring i look @ dirty sal bombs.

It was a fairly dusty day yesterday at Costa Maya MX, very murky grayish blue mostly sunny sky, very windy with 6 foot seas rocking our cruise ship pretty good. The good thing about the dust is that kept showers to a very limited amount so lots of sun burns in the ship due to the summer solstice.

Edit: Today is not as dusty as it was yesterday but still fairly windy because of the easterly trades that usually come along the dust outbreaks.

[cycloneye]

Well,so far since the new version of FV3-GFS is out since June 12,no phanthom storms have appeared in the runs.Let's see if that continues.

[Kingarabian]

Well,so far since the new version of FV3-GFS is out since June 12,no phanthom storms have appeared in the runs.Let's see if that continues.

This is very encouraging and a huge step in the right direction. Wish nothing but the best for the model.

[MetroMike]

Well,so far since the new version of FV3-GFS is out since June 12,no phanthom storms have appeared in the runs.Let's see if that continues.

This is very encouraging and a huge step in the right direction. Wish nothing but the best for the model.

The true test will be in about a month when things can get popping in the models range.
But yes so far so good.

[SouthFloridawx]

Do you have a link to this?

https://i.imgur.com/kVz6vHM.gi
When the global tc models are boring i look @ dirty sal bombs.

[gatorcane]

The GFS and Euro are hinting at possibly something getting going along a front off the SE US / Mid Atlantic in the long-range though still looks frontal. That is a typically an area to watch in July if fronts can push far enough south.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Still very early in the model run of the GFS at 18z, but it is showing some signs of the Atlantic waking up in a little over a week. Something to keep an eye on.