2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[SEASON_CANCELED]

A 'tropical cyclone' over Africa?

ECM:

https://i.imgur.com/hhHE0Yx.png

https://i.imgur.com/MpMJXZU.png

ICON:

https://i.imgur.com/mlgaScy.png

Models usually show this when conditions become more favorable/waves become stronger right?

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Thats a reverse hurricane.

They grow big over land and fall apart over water

[SEASON_CANCELED]

The atmosphere is broken

https://cdn.gifmaker.net/9ae9e130-3501-4295-b182-331f53838953/default.gif

throw the euro out today.

[LarryWx]

I posted something similar in the W Caribbean wave thread. The 12Z Euro has what looks like weak TC genesis at hour 48 in the FL Straits. That weak surface low then moves very slowly north over S FL pen and then gets to just offshore the SE US below the big NE US surface high at hour 120 before then moving very slowly NE just offshore the US east coast while getting a bit stronger over the subsequent few days. Could be something sneaky to watch.

And just like that the brand new EPS (12Z) has ~25% of its 50+ members with sub 1,000 mb pressure and ~12% with sub 992 mb. The prior runs had much less activity then and there. The primary threat landfall threat area per this run would be eastern NC as well as eastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes. One US landfall is as early as 6 days from now (8/26) in Maine of all places with others as late as ~9/1. Watch out as this may sneak up on us.

Check out the large increase in activity showing up on this for the 1st 10 days of the latest EPS run (goes through 12Z of 8/30 though there's also some activity after this ends)!
https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

(I posted something similar in the W Caribbean wave thread but thought this should also go here since it isn't clear to me that this can be fully attributed to that wave.)

[Hammy]

I posted something similar in the W Caribbean wave thread. The 12Z Euro has what looks like weak TC genesis at hour 48 in the FL Straits. That weak surface low then moves very slowly north over S FL pen and then gets to just offshore the SE US below the big NE US surface high at hour 120 before then moving very slowly NE just offshore the US east coast while getting a bit stronger over the subsequent few days. Could be something sneaky to watch.

And just like that the brand new EPS (12Z) has ~25% of its 50+ members with sub 1,000 mb pressure and ~12% with sub 992 mb. The prior runs had much less activity then and there. The primary threat landfall threat area per this run would be eastern NC as well as eastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes. One US landfall is as early as 6 days from now (8/26) in Maine of all places with others as late as ~9/1. Watch out as this may sneak up on us.

Check out the large increase in activity showing up on this for the 1st 10 days of the latest EPS run (goes through 12Z of 8/30 though there's also some activity after this ends)!
https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

(I posted something similar in the W Caribbean wave thread but thought this should also go here since it isn't clear to me that this can be fully attributed to that wave.)

Still little to speak of in the MDR but does appear to be ticking up slowly.

[Hammy]

Not sure if this goes here or in the models thread, but the GFS is showing a wave or two coming off at much lower latitude around September 5, and the Euro does as well around Aug 30.

[cycloneye]

Not sure if this goes here or in the models thread, but the GFS is showing a wave or two coming off at much lower latitude around September 5, and the Euro does as well around Aug 30.

Moved the post from the indicators thread to here.

[SFLcane]

Sure...

[gatorcane]

As we can see with Chantal and possibly our next named system from 98l, models are not really too great and forecasting genesis in the long-range or even medium range sometimes. We could have at least two named systems in August when just a few days ago many were thinking no named storms.

[Hammy]

As we can see with Chantal and possibly our next named system from 98l, models are not really too great and forecasting genesis in the long-range or even medium range sometimes. We could have at least two named systems in August when just a few days ago many were thinking no named storms.

It seems we've gone from one extreme to another--instead of having endless phantom storms in the deep tropics, they're ignoring what actually does form farther north.

[jaxfladude]

Sure...

https://i.imgur.com/rVz644H.gif

The almost annual "get NE FLA/Space Coast" model strike days/week(s) in advance.

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[SoupBone]

As we can see with Chantal and possibly our next named system from 98l, models are not really too great and forecasting genesis in the long-range or even medium range sometimes. We could have at least two named systems in August when just a few days ago many were thinking no named storms.

It seems we've gone from one extreme to another--instead of having endless phantom storms in the deep tropics, they're ignoring what actually does form farther north.

Which is what concerns me about home growns. If the models don't pick up on them, you have very little time to react.

[Hurricaneman]

Sure...

https://i.imgur.com/rVz644H.gif

The almost annual "get NE FLA/Space Coast" model strike days/week(s) in advance.

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We’re talking about this in the wave off west Africa thread but it does show the conditions in the Atlantic are improving and becoming more favorable

[SconnieCane]

Yes, getting a few good "modelstorms" was the sign many of us were looking for of things finally perking up, even if any one long-range solution is unlikely to verify.

[Kingarabian]

In regards to TC modeling, I think the CMC has been performing on par with the GFS this year if not better.

[South Texas Storms]

In regards to TC modeling, I think the CMC has been performing on par with the GFS this year if not better.

Agreed. The upgrades to the Canadian model over the past few years seem to have really helped to diminish the number of phantom storms on that model.

[Kingarabian]

00z UKMET looks like it has a 956mb major hurricane in the subtropics, 35N-75w at hour 144.

[Hammy]

Euro back down in latitude (though still too far north) with the wave, and showing a stronger, more southerly (and westerward-moving) one behind it at day 10.

[StormLogic]

gfs has little home grown forming in GOM near end of run heading into south texas

[SoupBone]

06Z GFS on September 3rd

[Steve]

gfs has little home grown forming in GOM near end of run heading into south texas

12Z brings what appears to be a piece of a trough or an MCS down into the Gulf (similar to Barry), spins something up and hits around the Houston area in 12 days or so. ICON and CMC seem to indicate that the center of the Gulf of Mexico may be hospitable for low pressure to form after a week or so, so there's plenty of time to watch.