2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[CyclonicFury]

i don't any thing until after aug 15 the Atlantic and Caribbean are dead zone for tropical weather their alot sal moving cross the tropical and shear not good system and dry air too killing storms try form only area watch home grown system like barry none big models show any thing

It's possible that we don't see any development until then, but it's very normal to have lulls of activity in the Atlantic this time of year due to SAL and strong trade winds over the deep tropics. It's not surprising the models don't show anything. I'm not so sure the first half of August will be dead, though. Shear in the MDR and Caribbean has recently dropped below normal.

[GCANE]

Wave coming off Africa looks somewhat interesting. High and good LL Vort.
Latest GFS has it crossing the Atlantic with convection into the east Carib.
Robost circulation seems to be sweeping out SAL in front of it, albeit SAL is very dense. Need to see if this gets entrained or not.
Could be the first protected pouch of the season which models are never good at forecasting.
Maybe something to talk about when it hits 50W.

[CFLHurricane]

Wave coming off Africa looks somewhat interesting. High and good LL Vort.

Absolutely! It’s stunning to see how easily it’s forcing the ITCZ to bend to its will. No doubt it will make it across if it can drag its umbilical cord with it.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Wave coming off Africa looks somewhat interesting. High and good LL Vort.

Absolutely! It’s stunning to see how easily it’s forcing the ITCZ to bend to its will. No doubt it will make it across if it can drag its umbilical cord with it.

It may make it. By the time it gets over that way it will be the 24thish...I would say thats close enough to peak season in climate terms

[SoupBone]

Wave coming off Africa looks somewhat interesting. High and good LL Vort.

Absolutely! It’s stunning to see how easily it’s forcing the ITCZ to bend to its will. No doubt it will make it across if it can drag its umbilical cord with it.

It may make it. By the time it gets over that way it will be the 24thish...I would say thats close enough to peak season in climate terms

Doesn't SAL start peaking toward the end of July? I remember usually seeing a huge push of dust around the end of July.

[artist]

Absolutely! It’s stunning to see how easily it’s forcing the ITCZ to bend to its will. No doubt it will make it across if it can drag its umbilical cord with it.

It may make it. By the time it gets over that way it will be the 24thish...I would say thats close enough to peak season in climate terms

Doesn't SAL start peaking toward the end of July? I remember usually seeing a huge push of dust around the end of July.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/misc/sal/info.html
SAL activity (described by the size and westward reach of the outbreaks) begins to rapidly increase in early June, peaks from mid-June through late July, and begins to subside in early August.

[GCANE]

GFS has it as a sharp axis at 850mb as it approaches the islands Saturday.
It then amplifies it to a broader axis at 700mb.
355K PV loks conducive then and will move into much more unstable air and warmer SSTs.

[floridasun78]

GFS has it as a sharp axis at 850mb as it approaches the islands Saturday.
It then amplifies it to a broader axis at 700mb.
355K PV loks conducive then and will move into much more unstable air and warmer SSTs.

i dont see any thing with gfs by saturday

[GCANE]

Latest runs are slowing it down

[AutoPenalti]

Latest runs are slowing it down

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4584/PFnLkX.png

GCANE, can you explain a bit what a sharp wave axis is? Or how it develops into something tropical?

[GCANE]

East to west surface winds prevail in the tropics.
A wave is defined where there is a "kink" in the winds.
In a wave, there is a distribution of winds that are SE to NW on the east of the axis and NE to SW on the west of the axis.
The axis is typically elongated and pointed SW to NE.
The more the winds deviate from E to W, the sharper the axis.

[GCANE]

Convection below 10N from 30W to 40W.
GFS forecast to track this into southern end of east Carib.
Latest GFS has a closed off 700mb vort in 18 hrs.
SAL still very heavy ahead of this.

[Stormcenter]

Front is expected to sag into Gulf next week, no model support yet but something to keep an eye open for in
the upcoming week.

[TheStormExpert]

Front is expected to sag into Gulf next week, no model support yet but something to keep an eye open for in
the upcoming week.

Fronts reaching the Gulf in July!? You don’t see that too often.

[SoupBone]

Front is expected to sag into Gulf next week, no model support yet but something to keep an eye open for in
the upcoming week.

Fronts reaching the Gulf in July!? You don’t see that too often.

Yeah, I was in Chicago a few years ago when a cold front came through in July. I couldn't believe how nice it was. Low 70's during the day and 60's at night. Hopefully, we keep getting these early this year.

[TheStormExpert]

Front is expected to sag into Gulf next week, no model support yet but something to keep an eye open for in
the upcoming week.

Fronts reaching the Gulf in July!? You don’t see that too often.

Yeah, I was in Chicago a few years ago when a cold front came through in July. I couldn't believe how nice it was. Low 70's during the day and 60's at night. Hopefully, we keep getting these early this year.

You can thank the -NAO which looks to be going positive for the first time next week since late-April.

[wxman22]

Front is expected to sag into Gulf next week, no model support yet but something to keep an eye open for in
the upcoming week.

Yes, I've been watching that also the global models show a trough of low pressure forming off the Texas coast as the cold front enters the gulf. Todays 12z Canadian is the first model run I've seen that shows development, of course it's the Canadian so take it for what it's worth...lol its something to watch at least.

[GCANE]

ICON, 117 hrs out
Surface low in the North GOM at the tail of the front.

[GCANE]

The old GFS, 120 hrs out.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Interesting setup