2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Astromanía
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1401 Postby Astromanía » Sat Dec 21, 2019 8:45 pm

According to Euro, NOT GOOD FOR BEIRA AFTER ONLY ONE YEAR APART FROM IDAI!!! :eek:
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GFS, ICON and CMC send this to Madagascar, making landfall at different locations and intensity
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NAVGEM and WW3 don't show a landfall yet but they develop this as well in the same area
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1402 Postby Astromanía » Sat Dec 21, 2019 9:03 pm

Annother potential dangerous system but now in the south pacific, models are in agragement that this will cause trouble in Fiji with some of them saying that it will make landfall there, plus more agressive overall than the potential system in south indian ocean.
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NAVGEM says Vanuatu
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1403 Postby aspen » Sat Dec 21, 2019 9:06 pm

Astromanía wrote:According to Euro, NOT GOOD FOR BEIRA AFTER ONLY ONE YEAR APART FROM IDAI!!! :eek:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019122112/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_safr_11.png
GFS, ICON and CMC send this to Madagascar, making landfall at different locations and intensity
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019122118/gfs_mslp_uv850_safr_45.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2019122118/icon_mslp_wind_safr_23.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019122112/gem_mslp_uv850_safr_31.png
NAVGEM and WW3 don't show a landfall yet but they develop this as well in the same area
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2019122118/navgem_mslp_uv850_safr_25.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ww3/2019122118/ww3_wavehgt_safr_61.png

That is over 200 hours out, so it’ll probably end up as a model phantom.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1404 Postby Astromanía » Sat Dec 21, 2019 9:49 pm

Even when all models show those systems? I doubt, that happens mostly when only one model shows something that others don't, but we will see
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1405 Postby aspen » Tue Dec 24, 2019 11:12 am

The GFS now wants a pair of TCs forming on opposite sides of northern Madagascar by Friday/Saturday. Both have a chance to become rather powerful systems.

Meanwhile, model estimates for the potential Fiji system are weaker because they’re calling for a larger precursor circulation, making it hard to tighten up.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1406 Postby aspen » Wed Dec 25, 2019 11:43 am

The Euro is going crazy again — it’s calling for a 937 mbar landfall in NW Australia on January 2nd.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1407 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Dec 25, 2019 5:09 pm

aspen wrote:The Euro is going crazy again — it’s calling for a 937 mbar landfall in NW Australia on January 2nd.

After the MJO passes the Pacific, models including the Euro are bypassing the IO and show the MJO emerging over the MC with good amplification.
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