2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Hammy]

Man, I really wish I'd saved the frames from the CFS runs because this almost mirrors the runs from late July/early August...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF @ day 10

[StruThiO]

This thread here.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1167518701702135808

[Kingarabian]

Would be nice to see some hurricane fish in the Atlantic. So my season totals can verify lol.

[tailgater]

Canadian and ICON have been showing a possible brief spin up in the western Gulf during the first half of next week. At a minimum it looks like a disturbance will form in the Gulf this weekend and then head westward most likely towards northern Mexico. Hopefully it can at least bring some rain and heat relief to south TX.

I believe this is the ULL that is just west of Dorian at the moment. The past few hours has seen the low start moving a little faster west. Then seems to enter the Gulf by late Friday, form a LLC, and become a lower end TS before cruising into the NoMe/Brownsville area.

I’m very surprised that they haven’t put a lemon in the south/SW GOM most of the models are saying this area will form a low. I guess they have their hands full and this probably won’t be much of a threat

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Would be nice to see some hurricane fish in the Atlantic. So my season totals can verify lol.

Not every year can be like 2006 sadly

[Astromanía]

Canadian and ICON have been showing a possible brief spin up in the western Gulf during the first half of next week. At a minimum it looks like a disturbance will form in the Gulf this weekend and then head westward most likely towards northern Mexico. Hopefully it can at least bring some rain and heat relief to south TX.

I believe this is the ULL that is just west of Dorian at the moment. The past few hours has seen the low start moving a little faster west. Then seems to enter the Gulf by late Friday, form a LLC, and become a lower end TS before cruising into the NoMe/Brownsville area.

I’m very surprised that they haven’t put a lemon in the south/SW GOM most of the models are saying this area will form a low. I guess they have their hands full and this probably won’t be much of a threat

Any rain is welcome here, seriously

[Audreyadele]

Canadian and ICON have been showing a possible brief spin up in the western Gulf during the first half of next week. At a minimum it looks like a disturbance will form in the Gulf this weekend and then head westward most likely towards northern Mexico. Hopefully it can at least bring some rain and heat relief to south TX.

I’ve been so interested in Dorian that I kept forgetting to check back on this. I’m wondering if a disturbance is still possible?
I was checking the weather for Port Mansfield tomorrow and saw SSW winds tomorrow morning. I’m always laughed at by the fishing people (husband and friends) because I just want to kayak and they always say too windy. So, I’ve started checking the wind because I’m done ending up on the shoreline every time and being laughed at! I’m not here full time, but I’ve had sone good runs, so I’ve been checking the wind (this summer) its always S, E or SE etc.
I’m curious if I should be surprised to see the SSW winds tomorrow morning and then the immediate switch to E at noon? Is this the disturbance you were referring to that would shift westward and go to northern Mexico?
This probably should have been a “pm”?

They laugh at all the effort put in to not end up on the shoreline. I’m not putting a motor on a kayak. I would like to safe though.

[AnnularCane]

Canadian and ICON have been showing a possible brief spin up in the western Gulf during the first half of next week. At a minimum it looks like a disturbance will form in the Gulf this weekend and then head westward most likely towards northern Mexico. Hopefully it can at least bring some rain and heat relief to south TX.

I’ve been so interested in Dorian that I kept forgetting to check back on this. I’m wondering if a disturbance is still possible?
I was checking the weather for Port Mansfield tomorrow and saw SSW winds tomorrow morning. I’m always laughed at by the fishing people (husband and friends) because I just want to kayak and they always say too windy. So, I’ve started checking the wind because I’m done ending up on the shoreline every time and being laughed at! I’m not here full time, but I’ve had sone good runs, so I’ve been checking the wind (this summer) its always S, E or SE etc.
I’m curious if I should be surprised to see the SSW winds tomorrow morning and then the immediate switch to E at noon? Is this the disturbance you were referring to that would shift westward and go to northern Mexico?
This probably should have been a “pm”?

They laugh at all the effort put in to not end up on the shoreline. I’m not putting a motor on a kayak. I would like to safe though.

Yeah, there's apparently a little something in the southeast Gulf now. Yellow X, 10/20. That's all I know for now, I just got up.

[South Texas Storms]

Canadian and ICON have been showing a possible brief spin up in the western Gulf during the first half of next week. At a minimum it looks like a disturbance will form in the Gulf this weekend and then head westward most likely towards northern Mexico. Hopefully it can at least bring some rain and heat relief to south TX.

I’ve been so interested in Dorian that I kept forgetting to check back on this. I’m wondering if a disturbance is still possible?
I was checking the weather for Port Mansfield tomorrow and saw SSW winds tomorrow morning. I’m always laughed at by the fishing people (husband and friends) because I just want to kayak and they always say too windy. So, I’ve started checking the wind because I’m done ending up on the shoreline every time and being laughed at! I’m not here full time, but I’ve had sone good runs, so I’ve been checking the wind (this summer) its always S, E or SE etc.
I’m curious if I should be surprised to see the SSW winds tomorrow morning and then the immediate switch to E at noon? Is this the disturbance you were referring to that would shift westward and go to northern Mexico?
This probably should have been a “pm”?

They laugh at all the effort put in to not end up on the shoreline. I’m not putting a motor on a kayak. I would like to safe though.

Yeah, there's apparently a little something in the southeast Gulf now. Yellow X, 10/20. That's all I know for now, I just got up.

Yep, this is the disturbance taking shape. I agree with the NHC, around a 20% development chance sounds about right. Likely to bring at least some rain to south TX and northern Mexico next week.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF has the disturbance in question going well OTS... develops the one behind it into a hurricane moving westward.

Obviously, this is nothing to be trusted this far out, but shows that we're about to really enter the heart of the season.

[Kat5]

The BOC might spark up some action later on this month.

[WeatherEmperor]

I hate to say here we go again but look what the Euro is showing approaching the islands. Thankfully it is 240hrs so plenty can change but we are at peak season so I have to ahow this




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[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1168781236212568065

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

The Hirlam got drunk tonight.
However, some slight subtropical or tropical development may possible south of Sicily in the next days, the ICON also shows a depression.

[floridasun78]

The Hirlam got drunk tonight.
However, some slight subtropical or tropical development may possible south of Sicily in the next days, the ICON also shows a depression.

http://gallery.site.hu/d/29684193-1/Ikermedikan.png

were that cannot tell were tropical this?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The Hirlam got drunk tonight.
However, some slight subtropical or tropical development may possible south of Sicily in the next days, the ICON also shows a depression.

http://gallery.site.hu/d/29684193-1/Ikermedikan.png

were that cannot tell were tropical this?

That'll be because it's an area where you're probably not used to seeing TC genesis: the Mediterranean.

[MetroMike]

The 18Z GFS develops a TC in the MDR in the midrange and this time it brings a hurricane into S.Carolina.
Last run it was hitting New England.
Just an idea of the possible set-up this month.

[WeatherEmperor]

I know this is fantasy range but what a sick joke nature would play on the Bahamas




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[WeatherEmperor]

Okay this is totally sick of what the GFS shows ends up veing true. The darn thing literally stalls and sits over the same place Dorian hit for almost 2 days!!! Thank goodness this is just fantasy range.....right?






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