2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[otowntiger]

Yeah, there will definitely be storms this month. The shear looks kind of average to me. Keep your tracking charts handy. The models will show development after something develops...

[Hammy]

GFS suddenly seems under the impression hurricane season is over.

[AubreyStorm]

GFS suddenly seems under the impression hurricane season is over.

Yeap....End on Saturday, November 30, 2019

[floridasun78]

GFS suddenly seems under the impression hurricane season is over.

gfs having issue their no way season over

[Stormi]

That the models don't show immediate development with these next few AEWs actually concerns me more, typically early development leads to a quicker gain in latitude (e.g. Gabrielle). It means these waves will travel further west before potentially finding a more suitable environment to develop. One thing is for sure, the WAM is now at a dangerous latitude for some waves to track into the Caribbean, with a ton of ammunition coming off the coast in the next few weeks:

https://i.imgur.com/zAaLau6.jpg

Holy Smokes

[N2FSU]

0z Euro now has development of wave coming off Africa within 48 hours, then quite aggressive.

[otowntiger]

0z Euro now has development of wave coming off Africa within 48 hours, then quite aggressive.

Yeah, I see that. Of course as always the dynamics can change but in that run the setup looks to be a fish, thankfully.

[toad strangler]

0z Euro now has development of wave coming off Africa within 48 hours, then quite aggressive.

Yeah, I see that. Of course as always the dynamics can change but in that run the setup looks to be a fish, thankfully.

Way too far out to pay too much attention to 500mb

[CYCLONE MIKE]

And after showing several runs in a row with another hurricane threatening the US only to go to showing nothing in the tropics for several runs, its now back to showing a system developing in the fantasy land range. Develops a wave that turns into a classic Caribbean cruiser and moves right up through the Yucatán channel into the gulf. But yeah that will only change 100 times between now and then.

[otowntiger]

0z Euro now has development of wave coming off Africa within 48 hours, then quite aggressive.

Yeah, I see that. Of course as always the dynamics can change but in that run the setup looks to be a fish, thankfully.

Way too far out to pay too much attention to 500mb

agreed, as I said the dynamics can change so in reality its too early to pay 'serious' attention to anything that far out, but it is interesting, which of course why I do look at these, like most folks on here, its kind of an obsession.

[gatorcane]

Remember a 00z GFS run can show nothing for the next 16 days, and then a 06z GFS run can show development occurring within 4-5 days.

Exactly. Just because a 14 day GFS run shows nothing doesn’t mean much. Look what it showed 14 days out for Dorian. In fact look what it showed just a week out. Think it killed off Dorian over Hispaniola.

Lead time might only be 5 days or less with the models. Seems the models have been tweaked to go conservative on genesis in the long-range.

[AtlanticWind]

Remember a 00z GFS run can show nothing for the next 16 days, and then a 06z GFS run can show development occurring within 4-5 days.

Exactly. Just because a 14 day GFS run shows nothing doesn’t mean much. Look what it showed 14 days out for Dorian. In fact look what it showed just a week out. Think it killed off Dorian over Hispaniola.

Lead time might only be 5 days or less with the models. Seems the models have been tweaked to go conservative on genesis in the long-range.

I agree , the models are very conservative on development this year .
It makes it hard to truly judge the potential for disturbances
Have to trust the NHC on their percentages.

[MetroMike]

Remember a 00z GFS run can show nothing for the next 16 days, and then a 06z GFS run can show development occurring within 4-5 days.

Exactly. Just because a 14 day GFS run shows nothing doesn’t mean much. Look what it showed 14 days out for Dorian. In fact look what it showed just a week out. Think it killed off Dorian over Hispaniola.

Lead time might only be 5 days or less with the models. Seems the models have been tweaked to go conservative on genesis in the long-range.

I agree , the models are very conservative on development this year .
It makes it hard to truly judge the potential for disturbances
Have to trust the NHC on their percentages.

Once again 18z GFS showing little. As was mentioned earlier lead time has been only 5-7 days that can be trusted if at all.

[LarryWx]

Fwiw, although the 12Z Euro doesn't develop it, the 12Z EPS has a fairly strong signal for what I think is the wave FOLLOWING 94L with very roughly 50% of the ~51 members having a TC genesis though most don't form til the vicinity of the Antilles or Bahamas days 11-14. Most of these then recurve between the US east coast and Bermuda. Regardless of the suggested track, this may very well eventually be an additional threat in the western basin. We'll see.

This wave is currently still over Africa and it will reach the ocean in a couple of days.

[Hammy]

It's almost getting to where it's not even worth checking the models--whatever they show one run (even in the shorter term) is completely different the next.

[LarryWx]

Fwiw, although the 12Z Euro doesn't develop it, the 12Z EPS has a fairly strong signal for what I think is the wave FOLLOWING 94L with very roughly 50% of the ~51 members having a TC genesis though most don't form til the vicinity of the Antilles or Bahamas days 11-14. Most of these then recurve between the US east coast and Bermuda. Regardless of the suggested track, this may very well eventually be an additional threat in the western basin. We'll see.

This wave is currently still over Africa and it will reach the ocean in a couple of days.

And look at this: the happy Hour GFS does very little with 94L and then weakens it while developing the wave following 94L, which is what many members of the 12Z EPS developed, into a very strong storm. This wave is still over Western Africa from what I can best tell.

[GeneratorPower]

Remember a 00z GFS run can show nothing for the next 16 days, and then a 06z GFS run can show development occurring within 4-5 days.

Exactly. Just because a 14 day GFS run shows nothing doesn’t mean much. Look what it showed 14 days out for Dorian. In fact look what it showed just a week out. Think it killed off Dorian over Hispaniola.

This is just an extension of track forecast being easier than intensity for forecasts. Dissipation, formation, and intensity are hard to predict. But movement is easier because the players are usually on the field already. At least through days 5-7.

[Kazmit]

GFS takes the wave behind 94L to a cat 4 south of Bermuda.

[LarryWx]

GFS takes the wave behind 94L to a cat 4 south of Bermuda.

The Happy Hour GEFS follows suit and goes pretty ballistic with this wave after 94L. It suggests a recurve away before reaching the SE with most of the members having a genesis fwiw. I say fwiw because this is so far out in time that it obviously may not even form, much less track that way if it does form.

[PTrackerLA]

Anyone remember Matthew being modeling to develop and reach the Caribbean while it was still over Africa? I can't remember seeing such a huge lead time in developing until that time. Seems like something has changed with the models this year.